This was supposed to be the year for Cade Cavalli, but so far things are off to a rocky start. After a dominant Spring Training, Cavalli was rewarded with an Opening Day start. However, things have not gone according to plan since then, with strike-throwing becoming a serious issue for the 27 year old.
The situation reached a boiling point last night, when Cavalli was unable to get out of the second inning against the Pirates. He looked sharp in the first, but he totally lost the zone in the second. Cavalli was all over the place, walking three batters in the inning, including walking in a run. There were too many uncompetitive misses, which you can see by looking at his pitch chart.
This is a problem for the Nats because Cavalli is the one guy in the rotation with premium stuff. As a starting pitcher though, you have to locate even if you do have a nasty arsenal. Right now, Cavalli is walking 6.89 batters per 9 innings, which is just untenable.
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Last season, Cavalli’s command within the strike zone left something to be desired, but his pure control was solid. He only walked 6.8% of batters, which is part of what made me bullish entering the season. It seemed like that control was heading in the right direction, and with further refinement, he had the ceiling of a number two starter.
My optimism only grew during Spring Training as well. Cavalli’s command and stuff looked sharper than ever. He only walked two batters in 14 spring innings. Cavalli was also deepening his pitch mix by adding a sweeper and was getting rave reviews from his coaches. It really seemed like we had a breakout candidate on our hands and that Cavalli would soften the blow of the MacKenzie Gore trade.
So far, that has not happened, which is a bit worrisome. At 27 years old, Cavalli needed this to be the year where he broke out. He was finally healthy for a full offseason and we know what his stuff looks like at his best. Last season was supposed to be the sneak peak, while this year was the true coming out party.
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The Nationals were clearly relying on Cavalli to do this as well. There is a reason he got the Opening Day nod and had been pumped up publicly. This starting rotation was a question mark entering the season, but Cavalli was meant to be the guy to answer a lot of those questions.
With a mid to upper 90’s heater, a wipeout curveball, a new sweeper, and an underrated changeup, Cavalli has all the weaponry. However, he has been less than the sum of his parts so far in his career. He still does not really know how to sequence his pitches or get his way out of jams. That is part of the process of growing up as a pitcher, and Cavalli needs to grow up quickly.
His stuff will give him plenty of chances, but at a certain point, you have to wonder about Cavalli’s future as a starting pitcher. To be a starter in the big leagues, you need polish and command. Cavalli has not shown those attributes in his career so far. A move to the bullpen should not be on the table this season, but if these struggles continue, it should be a topic to consider in the future.
Cavalli has the stuff, but he does not have the feel. Last night, he just was not throwing strikes, but even when he is in the zone things can be problematic. His lack of precision is a big reason why Cavalli gets way fewer strikeouts than he should with his stuff. Even last year, he only struck out 18.3% of hitters. Maybe the best path for him long term is to just let his fastball and curve rip in the bullpen where command does not matter as much.
I really hope it does not come to that though, and I still think he has a chance to turn it around. His stuff is just too good to quit. However, at a certain point, the results need to come for the right hander.
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Even last night, he will tease you with what he can be. In that first inning, I thought his stuff was the sharpest it has been all season. His fastball consistently touched 98 MPH and his curveball had crazy bite. That sinker he struck out Nick Yorke with was just such a ridiculous pitch, and why he is so tantalizing. If only he could put his fastball in that spot on a consistent basis.
Then you see the second inning, and you begin to wonder about this guy. He walked the speedy Konnor Griffin on four pitches, and then clearly got in his own head. Cavalli became more focused on Griffin than the batter at the plate. Once he fell behind hitters, he either served up something down the middle that they handled, or he just walked them.
Seeing a pitcher of Cavalli’s talent level just drowning out there was frustrating to watch. The Nats are relying on Cavalli to be good. If he is not good, this staff is in real trouble. Foster Griffin and Zack Littell can be dependable arms, but they do not have the stuff to be high end starters. They can be solid, but you want your best pitchers to be better than solid.
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However, we are at the point where being a league average arm makes you one of the Nats better pitchers. Spring Training truly seems to be a mirage that was driven by the pitcher friendly environment in West Palm Beach. Both the Nats and Astros, who they share a stadium with, pitched well, but struggled with the bats this spring. Once the season started, the opposite has been the case for both teams.
We are really seeing how far away this Nats pitching staff is from being competent. They just lack the talent to be successful. Things get even worse when a talented arm like Cavalli is struggling to figure it out. The Nats need Cavalli to figure it out, or their pitching staff will be even worse than the awful unit they put out last season.
Cade Cavalli has the stuff, but we can’t wait forever to see if that light will turn on. He turns 28 later this year, so he can’t be a developmental player much longer. We need to see the development take place, and we need to see it soon.
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