Adam Silver and the NBA’s quixotic quest to end tanking reached a new level of complexity on Tuesday when the league unveiled a new plan to the 30 league GMs on a conference call.
This new “3-2-1” system — named after how many ping pong balls each team would get, depending upon their finish — would expand the lottery to 16 teams, according to reports by Shams Charania at ESPN and Sam Amick at The Athletic. Here is how the new system would break down:
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• The teams with the three worst records in the league would fall into a “relegation zone” and be penalized by only getting two lottery balls, not three like other teams that missed the playoffs. Those three teams would have a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick, and in this system could fall no further than 12th. Meaning the team that was the worst the season before could well draft 10th, 11th or 12th.
• Teams that missed the playoffs but were not one of the worst three — teams four through 10 at the bottom of the standings — would get three lottery balls and an 8.1% chance at the No. 1 pick.
• Teams that finish as the No. 9 and 10 seeds in each conference will each get two lottery balls.
• Teams that lose the 7-8 play-in for each conference get one lottery ball (2.7% chance of landing the No. 1 pick).
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• Teams cannot win the No. 1 pick in consecutive years or have three consecutive top-five picks.
• Going forward, teams could not protect picks in slots 12 through 15.
• The NBA would have expanded authority to regulate and discipline tanking teams and potentially remove some of their lottery balls.
• This system would expire in 2029, at which time it could be extended, modified or scrapped entirely.
This or any new system put in place would need to be approved by a vote of the NBA owners, which is scheduled for May 28 at the Board of Governors meeting. According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, “the key points of the framework have a majority of the support from teams.”
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Is it a good plan?
The fact that it took me eight bullet points to try to explain the system says a lot.
Look at it this way: If this new proposed system were in place this season, the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder (which controls the LA Clippers pick), Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets all would have the exact same lottery odds as the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Sacramento Kings.
Is that the point of the draft?
The league’s argument for its plan is a good one is that it incentivizes its worst teams to win and avoid the “relegation zone,” so teams will not all-out tank. The league has been focused on that exact point (seemingly almost exclusively).
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The problem with that theory is that these are not quality teams choosing to lose, they are bad teams — some certainly trying to be worse to improve lottery odds, but not good to start with — that need good players to turn things around. This proposal makes it harder for those struggling teams to get the best players.
All of this would change future lotteries for which picks were traded, assuming they would be under the old system or something close to it. This could dramatically mess with the value of picks.
This entire new plan is Silver and the league office reacting to a year when a lot of teams chose to focus on the draft because it is particularly deep. If the NBA did nothing, tanking would be far less of an issue next season because the draft class is not considered nearly as deep or as talented.
The NBA owners can tweak and modify any system put in front of them, but they will have to be pushed by their GMs to do so. It’s going to be an interesting month to see how that plays out.
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