After what seemed like a never-ending wait, the puck will drop on game 1 of the Montreal Canadiens’ first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. This is only the fifth series between the two sides, and Martin St-Louis’ men have a 1-3 record against their host in playoff series (2004, 2014, 2015, 2021). The Canadiens’ sole series win over the Bolts came in 2014, when Montreal swept Tampa, which was without its number one goaltender at the time, Ben Bishop.
Of course, everyone remembers the last series between the two sides, the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, which the Bolts won 4-1, outscoring the Habs 17-8. They certainly weren’t without their number one goaltender then, as Andrei Vasilevskiy won the Conn Smythe Trophy that year. In their four-series matchup, the Bolts have outscored the Canadiens 58-42, but this will be the first playoff series for this new iteration of the Canadiens, built first and foremost around the offensive talent of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Ivan Demidov and Lane Hutson.
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The teams have split the honors of their 4-game season series, with Tampa winning the first two games in December and Montreal winning the last two in March and April. Tampa outscored the Canadiens 12-11 in the season series (the sixth goal in their 6-5 win doesn’t count as it was a shootout win). Interestingly, the Bolts have scored four goals in each period while the Canadiens have scored seven of their 11 goals in the third frame.
Overall, Tampa has a 16-23 record in Game 1 for a .410-win percentage, but their home record in the first game of a series stands at 8-13 for a .381-win percentage. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have a 75-50 record in Game 1 for a .600-win percentage, but when Game 1 is on the road, it’s a lot more complicated for the Habs, who have a 13-32 record for a lowly .289 win percentage.
The young Canadiens obviously do not have much experience in the playoffs, Brendan Gallagher is the most experienced player at Martin St-Louis’ disposal with 76 postseason games to his name, in which he gathered 33 points. 15 of those games were played against Tampa, during which he picked up nine points. Phillip Danault has played in 62 playoff games, scoring 28 points in the process, which includes only five games against the Bolts in which he could only muster one point. Josh Anderson wraps up the Canadiens’ top-three in playoff experience with 48 games across which he picked up 15 points. Only 9 of those games were against Tampa, but he still scored 4 points against them.
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As for Suzuki, he has 37 games of playoff experience in which he gathered 25 points. He’s obviously only faced Tampa five times in the postseason, and had three points in those five duels. As for Caufield, he has played in 25 playoff games, picking up 16 points, including seven goals. However, none of his seven goals came against the Lightning; in five duels, he could only muster three assists.
Meanwhile, the Bolts have a wealth of experience. Corey Perry has 237 playoff games to his name, the fourth-highest total in NHL history. He’s also picked up 141 points in the postseason. This will, however, be his first time playing against the Canadiens in the playoffs. Ryan McDonagh has played 196 playoff games and picked up 68 points in the process. Unlike Perry, he has plenty of postseason experience against Montreal. He has faced the Canadiens 17 times, picking up 15 points in the process. Victor Hedman, who’s currently not playing but should still be around the team according to Cooper, has played 170 playoff games and picked up 120 points in the process. 15 of those games were against Montreal, and he gathered eight points.
As for Nikita Kucherov, he has appeared in 152 playoff games, putting up 171 points; he’s the Bolts’ highest postseason scorer. In 13 playoff games against the Habs, he’s put up 13 points. Montreal will also need to keep a close eye on Jake Guentzel, who has 73 points in 74 playoff games and three points in four postseason duels with the Habs.
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In net, Vasilevskiy is hands-down the most experienced masked man in the series with 120 playoff appearances, including 67 wins with a 2.45 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage. Six of those games were against Montreal, and his stats are even better against the Habs; he’s got a 1.95 GAA and a .934 SV.
Meanwhile, Jakub Dobes has only played parts of three postseason games, winning one. He has a 2.91 GAA and a .881 SV. None of those games were against the Bolts, since he only faced the Washington Capitals in the playoffs. As for Jacob Fowler, this will be his first NHL playoff series, but last season in the AHL, he played eight postseason games, went 3-3, posted a 2.48 GAA, and a .902 SV%.
Clearly, the Canadiens are the underdogs in this meeting, but they are still much more prepared to face this challenge than they were last year against Washington. The game is set for 5:45 PM, and you can catch it on The Spot, HBO MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS, and CBC. Jake Brenk and Francois St-Laurent are set to officiate, while Shandor Alphonso and Julien Fournier will be the linemen.
Follow Karine on X @KarineHains Bluesky @karinehains.bsky.social and Threads @karinehains.
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