Loucks: Minnesota's Biggest Strength Has Now Become The Biggest Problem

ST. PAUL, Minn. – The Minnesota Wild (4-4) was back on the ice for a practice at home. The Wild will square off for Game 3 against Colorado Avalanche (6-0) in round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Saturday.

It will be the first home game of the series. The Wild are behind 2-0 and will look to show up in a must-win game. They are 1-8 when down 2-0 in a series.

The only win?

2014 against the Avalanche.

But this Avalanche team is different. The same can be said about the Wild, though. Nathan MacKinnon was just a rookie back in 2014. Now he is a superstar. Jared Spurgeon was 24 that season. Now he is 36 and is the team captain.

Not to mention other star players like Quinn Hughes and Matt Boldy for Minnesota and Martin Necas and Cale Makar for Colorado.

The thing that is interesting about this go around and in this series in general, is how the Avalanche are beating the Wild at their own game.

It is a hard thing to do, but the Avalanche have completely bought into the style and have now taken the Wild’s game and shoved it against them.

The Wild used to have the mantra of grit first. The physicality to wear teams down with hits and grind down defensemen. They did it against the Dallas Stars in round one this year, but haven’t gotten to that in round two.

Every coach in the league has been saying it for the last couple of years. Things like the Wild are hard to play against. Minnesota is a big and hard team. Or, as head coach Jared Bednar said, “they’re a big and physical team.”

So what happened to that?

“I mean, that was part of the game plan,” Marcus Foligno said after round one. “Get to their defensemen and especially, star players like Miro Heiskanen, and just make it really tough on them. Obviously, no one likes to go skating backwards for it. Those guys are very offensive. And you know, the more you can play in their end, or take some energy out on them from the defensive side of the pocket, it limits their chances of what they can do offensively. So that was good. I mean, I think our heads were right as well.”

There is no doubt that Dallas is a different team from the Avalanche. Just look at the defense corps.

Heiskanen is an offensive guy and is just a notch under Makar in terms of offense. The only thing, Heiskanen played through a torn oblique muscle in the playoffs.

Makar at 100% is much more dynamic than Heiskanen at 70% or whatever he thought he was. Devon Toews of the Avalanche and Esa Lindell of the Stars are similar in terms of defensive play and the ability to break the puck out.

Thomas Harley and Nils Lundqvist are no slouches either, but here is where it gets different. Tyler Myers is 6-foot-8 and Lian Bichsel is 6-foot-7. Bichsel also suffered a strained shoulder in round one.

The two can clear the puck and defend, but they aren’t as quick-moving as the Avs’ defenders.

Guys like 5-foot-9 Nick Blankenburg and 5-foot-10 Sam Malinski are much more elusive than the towering Myers and Bichsel pair the Wild went up against in round one.

The point is, the Wild are having a harder time chipping the puck in and grinding down the defense corps of the Avalanche like they did to the Stars. This has allowed the Avalanche to play quickly and move the puck to their game-breaking players like MacKinnon, Necas, Brock Nelson, and others.

“Colorado plays different. Dallas was bigger. These guys move really well back there,” Michael McCarron said. “When you chip the puck in, they keep the puck moving really well, and they move with the puck as well. So they’re hard to touch. We’re gonna have to find our way to stop these, slow these D down more. But imposing our will, I thought five-on-five, we did really well.”

In round one, the Wild finished second in the NHL in hits with 219 for a hits/60 minutes of 31.92. Through two games of round two, the Wild have 55 hits for a hits/60 minutes of 27.50.

The Avalanche had 109 hits in round one against the Los Angeles Kings for a hits/60 minutes of 26.40. Through two games of round two, the Avs have 54 hits for a hits/60 minutes of 27.00. They went from last in the NHL to eighth in the NHL in that category.

After the second period of Game 2, ESPN Analyst and Hockey Hall of Famer Mark Messier talked about how the Wild just haven’t been able to get to their game.

Their game is what was alluded to above in the story. Wearing down the opposition, forcing them to make mistakes, capitalizing on the mistakes, and beating them 5-on-5.

Colorado is outscoring Minnesota 9-7 at 5-on-5 after the Wild allowed just four 5-on-5 goals to the Stars in six games of round one.

They were able to break down the Stars by physical play and it took a toll on them as the series went on. This led to less offense from Dallas.

Not the same for the Avs.

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Colorado is the best team in the league and is the best team when it comes to off the rush as well. The Wild held the Stars in check off the rush, but have not done the same to the Avalanche.

“Exactly. You want to play with the puck. I think the biggest thing is to not get beaten back by the dman,” Nico Sturm said on how important physical play will be to stop the Avalanche off the rush. “Sometimes, that’s the thing with physicality. You can also overdo it, and then you kind of get yourself out of position because you want to finish a hit, and it ends up, you know, you take yourself kind of out of place. So, you’ve got to tread the line. You want to be physical, but you don’t want to run around like a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off, right? So it’s, it’s always a fine line to tread.”

Unfortunately, the Wild have done neither. Two different goalies in two games, and Minnesota has allowed 14 goals.

Back to Messier’s point, the Wild have not been able to get to their game. They aren’t able to hit the oposition like they did against Dallas because the makeup of the Avalanche is different and they are able to move past those plays.

Minnesota has shown that it can’t adjust. At least through two games.

Along with the Wild’s awful penalty kill, to be blunt, Minnesota doesn’t want to take a penalty because being shorthanded is almost always a goal. Exactly was Messier’s point.

Even against the Avalanche, who went 1-for-11 in round one on the power play and are now 3-for-7 in two games against the Wild.

They went from 9.1% on the power play to 42.9%. That is what the Wild’s PK can do.

Minnesota allowed ten power-play goals to the Stars in round one in 25 times shorthanded for a 60% PK. They are at 57.1% right now.

It is the same story year after year for Minnesota. A PK that lets them down in the playoffs. Since 2022, the Wild’s PK sits at 65%, which ranks 27th out of 28 teams.

The power play?

4-for-30. 13.3%. This postseason.

But if the first two games were an indication for what is to come, the Wild are in for one. The Avalanche stars want it more. They are willing to do what it takes to win games.

MacKinnon leads the NHL in points for round two with six. He is also doing everything it takes in this series to try to advance.

MacKinnon, who has won the MVP, led the NHL in goals and points, is a five-time All-Star and is coming off a Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy season, has blasted both Boldy and Quinn Hughes this series.

The Avalanche just seem to want it more and are willing to do whatever it takes to shut down the Wild’s stars. Boldy has zero goals and just four shots in the first two games.

MacKinnon has made that clear.

It is easy to say, but if the Wild were at their game, this would be a series they could win and would be the first time since 2003, and the second time in franchise history, they would be in the conference final.

If the Wild can’t get back to their game, this won’t be a long series. If they can’t adjust, this won’t be a fun extended series with multiple superstars going at it.

Minnesota has talked all season about identity. About being hard to play against. About winning the hard areas of the ice and wearing teams down over a seven-game series. Against Dallas, that identity showed up. Against Colorado, it seems to have disappeared.

Now, down 2-0 with the series shifting back to St. Paul, the Wild are out of time to search for it. Because if they can’t find a way to slow down the Avalanche and get back to the style that made them successful in round one, this series won’t turn into the heavyweight battle many expected.

It will turn into another short playoff exit for a team still searching for answers this time of year.

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