Who is your dark horse to contend this year?

It’s about that time in spring where the real games start to get close, we’ve seen everyone take the field for a few weeks, and some surprise names have had hot starts while others are working off the rust. The Yankees are making their roster decisions on a near-daily basis, whittling down their invitee list starting with the obvious prospects that were always here just to get a look-see and some time with their hopefully-future teammates and coaches. Everyone else around the league is doing the same, and as those rosters begin to take shape we can start to consider where our relative preseason rankings fall.

The Yankees are expected to be contenders, both within the locker room and by the media at large. It’s expected, but it shouldn’t be taken for granted that their aim is playing in October because as we’ve seen in recent years… there’s plenty of teams that aren’t. Still, sometimes the team that’s finally looking to make some strides towards contention manages to skip a step or two and finds themselves playing deeper in the fall then they’ve done in a long time, or a team that’s been in the dance a bunch of times just to get kicked right out finally puts it all together to go on a magical run. You can’t predict baseball, as a famous radio broadcaster once said, and every year there’s one or two teams that really turn heads just based on how far they got in the end. Who could it be this year?

The Mariners and Blue Jays both fit the bill last year, meeting in the ALCS after years of playoff frustration with the latter making their first World Series since the early 90s. This year teams will be ready for them, but will they be ready for a team like the Rangers, who had a stellar rotation bogged down by one of the weakest lineups in baseball? Perhaps it all turns around for them, and they find themselves back in it like their 2023 run. Or maybe the AL Central finally gets some respect, with the Guardians once again getting little fanfare despite winning the division three out of the last four years. The Tigers have the flashiest piece with their ace Tarik Skubal and they added Framber Valdez to form a monster 1-2 combo, but don’t count Kansas City out with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the charge. Their rotation is formidable as well, and their supplementary hitters could be enough to get them back into a Wild Card Series.

Over in the National League, the Mets and Phillies have leapfrogged Atlanta after the Braves spent more than a half-decade ruling it. Atlanta missed the postseason altogether, and they face an uphill battle to get back into it, but perhaps Ronald Acuna Jr. and company can surprise some folks and get back on top this year. The NL Central could be the most ripe field for dark horses, as Milwaukee stunned with an MLB-best 97 wins last year but faces competition to hold onto their new crown. The Cubs remain a threat, and while the Cardinals have faded into the foreground of a division they once dominated the Reds could take a leap and prove that ownership should have invested in them more with another ticket to October. The Pirates would be a truly absurd team to rise out of the ashes due to their overall ineptitude, but they do have Paul Skenes — and wouldn’t it be fun to see him in meaningful games come September? About the only division that doesn’t seem interesting on this front is the NL West, as the Dodgers have remained kings for over a decade barring one strange 2021 run from the Giants and the Padres are known contenders who’ve had to settle for the Wild Card.

If you forced me to pick one team from each side to watch out for, I’d go with Kansas City and Atlanta. I don’t expect the Royals to go very deep, but I think they could give their contemporaries in the Central a run for their money and perhaps upset one of them in the standings. As for Atlanta, despite all their years ruling the East it was the year that they looked their least appealing in that span that they won it all. The Mets and Phillies are flashier, but there’s plenty of room for one of them to combust this season, and I’ll believe Atlanta’s down for the count when I see it. Who would your picks be, and how far do you think they’ll go?

Today on the site, Josh leads off with some thoughts on the ABS Challenge influence on this season and how teams will be poised to utilize it. Matt takes us back to the Deadball Era to wish Home Run Baker a happy birthday, Jeff walks us through how the Yankees’ archrivals will look heading into 2026 with a Red Sox preview, and after the exhibition I’ll be around to answer your latest mailbag questions.