Baseball America released their farm system rankings, and they are not the only outlet to do so in the past week or so. ESPN and The Athletic have also put out their rankings. The general consensus is that the Nats farm system is in the middle of the pack, though that feeling is not universal.
BA is the lowest of the three outlets on the Nats farm, ranking them 16th. The Nats have been in this range for them over the past few years. Last year, the Nats were 14th and in 2024 they were 15th. The system was at its strongest in 2023, ranking 7th. This makes sense, given that it was right after the Juan Soto trade.
The reason the Nats system is lower is because of graduations and some regression. At this time last year, Dylan Crews was still prospect eligible. He was regarded as a top 10 prospect in the game. Brady House, Cade Cavalli and Daylen Lile all graduated as well.
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The Nats 2024 draft class also struggled in their first taste of professional action. Seaver King and Luke Dickerson were very disappointing in 2025. Caleb Lomavita was fine, but did not exceed expectations either. With none of those guys emerging as top 100 caliber prospects, the Nats were unable to replace the guys they graduated from within.
Paul Toboni saved the Nats from being ranked deep into the 20’s with his moves. BA noted that the Nats acquired half of their top 20 prospects within the last year. The additions of Harry Ford, Gavin Fien, Luis Perales and others have made the Nats system deeper than ever.
The biggest reason why they are not higher is the lack of a true blue chip prospect. Eli Willits is the closest thing the Nats have, but BA has him ranked at 30th overall. He is not a top 10 prospect in the game like the Nats have had with Wood and Crews. Prospects like Travis Sykora, Jarlin Susana, Harry Ford and Gavin Fien are all very good, but also come with plenty of risk.
Keith Law of The Athletic really sees the promise in these guys. That is why he has the Nats system ranked as the 6th best, by far the highest I have seen. He noted that the Nats have done an impressive job restocking their system under Paul Toboni and in the 2025 draft.
However, he also notes the risk in a lot of these players. Law said that a lot of the talent the Nats have picked up is underperforming talent, based on where they were drafted or when they emerged as prospects.
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I am not sure I agree with the underperforming part, but I do think a lot of the top guys have questions. Susana, Sykora, Perales and Alejandro Rosario have injury concerns. Harry Ford has some defensive issues and young infielders like Eli Willits and Gavin Fien are years away. There is no Konnor Griffin or Kevin McGonigle in the Nats system.
In the past, the Nats system has been very top heavy. They had a couple blue chip prospects, but not a ton else beyond that. Now the Nationals system’s strength is its depth. The question now is whether some of these promising pieces become top prospects.
Kiley McDaniel over at ESPN is one of my favorite prospect evaluators going back to his days at Fangraphs. He has the Nats system ranked as the 14th best. Last year, McDaniel had the Nats at 12. That was on the back of the top end guys like Dylan Crews. This year, the strength comes from the depth.
According to his write-up, the Nats acquired four of his top 200 prospects this winter. He pointed out Landon Harmon as a prospect to watch. I like that shoutout a lot. Harmon is quite similar to what Travis Sykora was coming out of high school a couple years ago. Both are 6’6 righties with upper 90’s heaters.
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Sykora had a more filled out frame, but Harmon’s fastball might be even better. Harmon’s heater has good shape, while Sykora’s was more velocity dependent. However, Harmon’s secondary pitches are not as advanced as Sykora’s were.
At this time next year, I would be pretty surprised if the Nats did not have a consensus top 10 system in baseball. We wrote about what the system could look like at the end of the year, and Paul was very optimistic.
There are so many breakout candidates in this system. The reason the Nats system is not top 10 right now is that not a ton of these guys have done it yet. Once the Nats youngsters prove themselves, they will rise in the ranks. Even if the ranking is lower, the Nats farm is as healthy as it has been in a long time under Paul Toboni. Finally, the Nationals prospect pool has depth.
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