Truist Championship First-Round Leader Predictions & Odds: Best Round 1 Leader Picks

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Tee times are scheduled to begin at 11 a.m. ET at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., and our Truist Championship first-round leader predictions look to navigate a miserable weather forecast ahead of the golf season’s second major.

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The winner of this week’s Signature Event will gain the final entry to next week’s PGA Championship, if not already exempt. Keep an eye on next week’s odds throughout the tournament for the best value with your golf picks.

Below are my best Truist Championship first-round leader picks, based on the odds from Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps.

💰 Truist Championship first-round leader predictions (2026)

Truist Championship first-round leader picks made on Wednesday, May 6 at 6 p.m. ET.

📊 Truist Championship first-round leader odds (2026)

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.

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⛳ Who’ll lead the Truist Championship after Round 1?

Rory McIlroy (6.7%)

Tee time: 11:33 a.m. ET | Group: Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose

I can’t not have some action on the reigning Masters champion. McIlroy is warming up for the PGA Championship in hopes of winning a seventh career major, and he’s doing so as the heavy favorite in the outright winner market. Kalshi gives the Northern Irishman a 13% chance to win the Truist Championship.

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We get nearly twice the odds for McIlroy to be the Round 1 leader. The No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) tees off at 11:33 a.m. ET in a star-studded group alongside European Ryder Cup teammates Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose. That’ll have them hit the course just ahead of the expected thunderstorms and rain.

A delay will allow them to finish their first round on a softer course. Rory’s field-best driving distance will once again play to his advantage.

Min Woo Lee (2.4%)

Tee time: 11:11 a.m. ET | Group: Matt Wallace and Denny McCarthy

Min Woo Lee ranks 31st in Round 1 scoring through 10 events this season at 69.60 strokes per round. That scoring average drops to 67.92 with an early tee time to pace the PGA Tour, and he’ll be in the second group off the first tee on Thursday.

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Lee is one of the longest hitters in this field and any other. Like McIlroy, that’ll equip him to power through what’s likely to be a soggy course following what could be a lengthy weather delay.

Harris English (2%)

Tee time: 11:33 a.m. ET | Group: Keegan Bradley and Nico Echavarria

I’m piggybacking off of one of Neil Parker’s Truist Championship long-shot predictions with this Harris English pick.

English finished T3 in the Truist Championship three years ago and was a co-runner-up in the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. He has averaged 1.14 true strokes gained per round across his 28 career rounds at this venue.

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He shares the 11:33 a.m. ET tee time with McIlroy, but will head off the first tee as opposed to the back 9. He enters with 0.74 strokes gained: putting per round across his last 16 rounds, and will keep his putter hot on the familiar greens.

📜 Truist Championship first-round leader history

Here are the recent first-round leaders of the Truist Championship, along with the tournament winner and their Round 1 scores:

The first-round leader at Quail Hollow Club has finished between -6 and -8 each of the past five years, including last year’s PGA Championship (the 2025 Truist Championship was moved to the Philadelphia Cricket Club). McIlroy wasn’t the strongest starter in either of his previous two wins at Quail Hollow, but he shared the 18-hole lead at the Masters and tees it up this week well rested.

☀️Thursday’s weather at Quail Hollow Club

Here is Thursday’s Truist Championship weather report from Accuweather:

⛅ What to consider when trading on the first-round leader

The first-round leader market of any golf tournament is far different than wagering on the tournament winner or any prop market.

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Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

The first-round leader market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for tournament favorites are longer in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when trading on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday’s first round.

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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