The San Francisco 49ers traded twice, but that doesn’t mean they’re done making deals. General manager John Lynch said, “I think the cool thing about the 33rd pick, it puts you in a really nice, we can kind of reconvene, reset our board, reset our thoughts, and I think it’s also a coveted pick as a lot of teams are doing that themselves.”
Reading that sentence took me down a rabbit hole. How often has the 33rd overall pick been traded in the previous decade? It feels like it happens often. In reality, the pick has been traded three times since 2016. If it feels like the pick has been traded more than that, it’s because of recency bias. Three of the trades happened in successive years. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, No. 33 was moved.
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What happened in 2022 with pick No. 33?
In the 2022 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded out of pick No. 27 to the 33rd slot. Jacksonville gave Tampa the No. 106 pick in the fourth round and the No. 180 pick, which is the second-to-last pick in the fifth round. who recently signed a two-year deal during free agency that guarantees him $9 million.
Here are the players Tampa Bay passed on:
LB Devin Lloyd
DT Devonte Wyatt
G Cole Strange
EDGE George Karlaftis
S Daxton Hill
S Lewis Cine
Karlaftis and Waytt have objectively been better pros than Hall. But the Bucs got two more swings, thanks to the trade down. Cade Otton was picked No. 106. He’s been the Bucs tight end for four years and a productive one at that.
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Tampa Bay ended up packaging No. 180 to move up three spots in the second round to select Luke Goedeke, who has started 49 games in his career, including 11 in 2025.
That’s the value of having extra Day 3 picks. They allow you to maneuver throughout the draft.
What happened in 2023 with pick No. 33?
The opening pick of the second round in 2023 was the most traveled No. 33 selection in recent memory. DeMeco Ryans traded the pick to the Arizona Cardinals in a deal that involved six picks overall to help Houston land Will Anderson.
Arizona flipped No. 33 and No. 81 to No. 41, No. 72, and a third-rounder in 2024. The Titans used that pick on Will Levis. Here are the players the Cardinals missed out on before ultimately selecting BJ Ojulari:
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TE Sam LaPorta
TE Michael Mayer
OG Steve Avila
EDGE Derick Hall
OG Matthew Bergeron
WR Jonathan Mingo
EDGE Isaiah Foskey
Brian Branch was selected four picks later.
What happened with pick No. 33 in 2024?
The Bills pulled a similar move to the 49ers in 2024. They were initially on the clock at pick No. 28. They moved back with the Kansas City Chiefs to pick No. 32(we won’t discuss how the Chiefs got that pick). Buffalo gave Kansas City 28, 133, and 248 in exchange for 32, 95, and 221.
From there, Buffalo moved back one pick with Carolina and out of the first round. The Panthers received 32 and 200 in exchange for 33 and 141. The Bills had their eyes on receivers and landed on Keon Coleman. We know how that turned out for them. Here are the players who went in between both trades:
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WR Xavier Worthy
OT Tyler Guyton
CB Nate Wiggins
WR Ricky Pearsall
WR Xavier Legette
Pearsall has 928 receiving yards and three touchdowns in 13 games compared to Worthy’s 1,170 yards in 26 games. Pearsall is far more productive than Worthy, but his availability makes it seem like the Bills weren’t going to come out ahead, regardless of which wideout they selected.
Will the 49ers regret passing on any of the players selected after pick No. 27?
I thought it was telling that Robert Saleh traded back into the first round to get a fifth-year option on Keldric Faulk. The 21-year-old’s floor is Arik Armstead. We’ve seen the ceiling for that player turn out to be relatively low. There’s a chance he turns into a plus pass rusher, but history says he’ll be stout against the run and won’t turn into much more than that.
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John Lynch was asked how valuable the fifth-year option was in the team’s decision to trade back: “Yeah, you weigh it all. I think again, we’ve got a number of players that are there. We like the situation to be able to grab a fifth, and it gives you flexibility to stay there and pick or move forward.”
I feel strongly about the 49ers passing on Caleb Lomu and Omar Cooper Jr., as those players left me with more questions than answers. That’s not what you want in a first-round pick. While there’s always a chance they blossom into productive players, the value simply isn’t there in the first round.
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