Post-combine mock draft tracker: New consensus favorites emerge for Cowboys

At the end of January, we published our first mock draft tracker of the season. At the time, 18 of the 25 mocks (72%) were projecting the Cowboys to take a linebacker with their 12th pick. Sonny Styles (15 mocks, 60%) was the clear favorite.

In mid-February, our second mock draft tracker saw a shift away from linebackers (35%) in favor of corners (25%) and edge rushers (18%) at #12. Sonny Styles still remained the consensus favorite at #12 for the Cowboys (35%), but his lead over other prospects had dropped.

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Today, the 40 post-combine mock drafts we have collected suggest Sonny Styles has catapulted himself firmly into the top 10 – if not the top 5 – with his Combine performance. The consensus favorite position for the Cowboys at #12 are cornerbacks, with 22 of 40 mocks (55%) picking either Mansoor Delane or Jermod McCoy for the Cowboys. Also, the silliness of mocking a wide receiver or running back to the Cowboys at #12 has come to a dead stop.

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Naturally, this produces some “winners and losers” among the players mocked to Dallas at #12. Sonny Styles is picked in only two mocks by the Cowboys, down from 14 mocks just three weeks ago. He is picked to go at #4 (TEN) five times, #5 (NYG) 13 times and #7 (WAS) 11 times. And that creates room for Mansoor Delane and Jermod McCoy who emerge as the consensus favorites after the Combine.

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There’s a very interesting dynamic at cornerback that’s not immediately visible in these numbers. 35 of 40 mocks have Delane going ahead McCoy, and the same dynamic applies to the Cowboys at #12: in 11 of the 12 mocks that land McCoy in Dallas, Delane is already gone. Does that make McCoy the consolation prize at CB for the Cowboys?

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There’s also a second dynamic hidden here that should please the ”I-hope-he-drops” crowd: In the eighteen mocks where the Cowboys don’t pick a corner with their first pick, eight mocks have the Cowboys picking a big-name defender like S Caleb Downs (3 mocks), LB Sonny Styles (2), LB Arvell Reese (1), Edge Rueben Bain (1) and Edge David Bailey (1). Overall, 13 mocks (33%) have one of these Top 5 defenders dropping #12. The dream lives on!

Now on to pick #20. That pick is of course tied to what happens at #12, so it can be a bit tricky to look at the pick in isolation. In terms of raw numbers, Edge T.J. Parker is the favorite at #20, getting mocked to the Cowboys in 18% of the mocks, fellow Edge Keldric Faulk (15%) and CB Avieon Terrell (15%) share second place.

But the key to first round for the Cowboys are position combinations. We already saw that cornerback was the top pick in 55% of the mocks. Unsurprisingly, the combination of CB at #12 and pass rusher at #20 pops up in 45% of the mocks, making it by far the most frequent position combination for the Cowboys. Here’s an overview of the most frequent combinations.

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It’s no surprise that the CB/Edge or Edge/CB combo is the choice in 60% of the mocks. This lines up nicely with the Money Five positions, so it also makes sense from a cap management point of view. It also should inform the Cowboys free agency strategy to some extent. Getting a capable MLB should be the top free agency priority; you’re unlikely to get one in the draft.

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To get a little more clarity on which player could be available for the Cowboys at which spot, the following summary chart of the 40 mocks has proven useful in the past.

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But all of that doesn’t yet tell us too much about how the first round could play out for the Cowboys. For that, I plotted where specific players were taken in each of the 40 mocks.

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This table illustrates how the first round could play out for the Cowboys and the prospects they are interested in. It also identifies a number of choke points (marked in yellow and red) for the Cowboys.

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The first choke point are the Giants, who apparently have no interest in pass rushers, but compensate for that with a high level of interest in S Caleb Downs (13 mocks) and LB Sonny Styles (13 mocks). The hope here, from a Cowboys point of view, is that the Giants get caught up in a positional value discussion and pick an offensive player like WR Carnell Tate or OT Francis Mauigoa, which exponentially increases the odds of either Downs or Styles falling to the Cowboys.

The second choke point are the Commanders, who have very similar need to the Cowboys. David Bailey (24 mocks) and Rueben Bain (16 mocks) are a good bet to go in the top four picks of the draft, but in case they don’t, they are falling all the way to the seventh spot, where the Commanders stand ready to vacuum up either player. If that doesn’t happen for the Commanders, they also stand ready to pivot to Sonny Styles (11 mocks).

The third choke point are the Bengals, because even though they are all over the place in mock drafts, they are picking the same players mocked to the Cowboys in 33 of 40 mocks.

The data here suggests that on draft night, the Giants, Redskins, and Bengals will determine if any of the top guys drop all the way to #12. If you’re part of the ”I-hope-he-drops” crowd, these are the teams you’ll have to watch closely on draft night.

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We saw earlier that 13 mocks (33%) have one of the Top 5 defenders (Reese, Bailey, Bain, Downs, Styles) dropping #12. If you’re in the “Nope-they-ain’t-falling” crowd, you’re looking at the 27 mocks without a Top 5 player available, and you’re zeroing in on the top cornerbacks in this class.

And that’s where the fourth choke point comes in. Miami is going to be the key competitor for the Cowboys for the top cornerbacks, with 24 of 40 mocks having then stealing Mansoor Delane or Jermod McCoy right off the Cowboys’ plate. Miami has needs at QB, OG, and WR. They are unlikely to take a QB or OG this high, but if WR Makai Lemon is available at #11 or WR Carnell Tate drops beyond the Giants, the Cowboys’ chances of landing Mansoor Delane increase significantly.

The fifth choke point comes with the Vikings at #18, who are intent on finding a replacement for S Harrison Smith and are takings a safety in 26 of 40 mocks, just two picks before the Cowboys might also consider a safety. But safety is such a glaring need for the Vikings that it’s almost a must for them to address it in free agency and then perhaps focus on cornerbacks in the draft – which conceivably might again lead to a conflict with the Cowboys if they don’t pick a corner at #12.

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You’ll find the table with the 40 mocks below, I find that they clutter up the post if I place them at the top of the post, and their informational value is limited anyway. However, I would gleefully answer questions about which mock drafter made which surprising pick in their mock, i.e. “Who had Mansoor Delane picked at #4 overall?” Why, that would be none other than Lance Zierlein of NFL.com.

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