Malik Willis could cash in

Four years ago, Malik Willis was favored to be the first quarterback in the draft. He wasn’t.

At pick No. 86, Willis went third among all quarterbacks, behind Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder.

It never really clicked for Willis in Tennessee, and he became expendable after two seasons. The Packers obtained Willis for a seventh-round pick not long before the start of the 2024 season.

While he has been the clear No. 2 to Jordan Love for the last two years, Willis has made the most of his limited opportunities.

In 11 appearances with four starts for the Packers, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes (78.6 percent) for 972 yards (10.92 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, and no interceptions. His passer rating was 134.64. He also has 261 rushing yards on 42 attempts (6.2 yards per carry) for three touchdowns.

Yes, the sample size is small. But, yes, the impact has been significant.

And he’s less than three weeks away from free agency.

Where he goes, and what he’ll get, becomes one of the more intriguing questions of free agency. The coming class of free-agent quarterbacks is headlined by Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones. One is 42, and the other is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. Both are generally expected to return to their current teams (Steelers and Colts, respectively).

Other current free-agent options for quarterback-needy teams include Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Pickett, Zack Wilson, and Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Kirk Cousins contract adjustment from January guarantees he’ll be cut on March 11 or 12, so he’s essentially a free agent. Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa likely will be released, unless a trade can be worked out for either or both. The Jets also could move on from Justin Fields. And Mac Jones looms as a potential trade option, if the 49ers are willing to move him. (They say they’re not, but ’tis the season for posturing.)

Then there’s Geno Smith, who already has $18.5 million fully guaranteed from the Raiders in 2026, with the remaining $8 million vesting on the third day of the 2026 league year. He could be available for trade, or he could be cut. (The Raiders also could keep him as the bridge to Fernando Mendoza, if they make him the first overall pick in the draft.)

Willis’s numbers are undeniable. Is he ready to be a full-time starter? And is a team ready to give him a starter-level contract?

As starter-level contracts go, the range is broad. The market tops, generally speaking, at $60 million per year. The bottom of the veteran starter market, as of last year, was $10.5 million for Russell Wilson (who started only three games). Fields has a $20 million average, and he received $30 million guaranteed on a two-year deal. (Fields also was eventually benched, after being publicly bad-mouthed by his thin-skinned owner.)

Sam Darnold, with only one viable suitor, received $33.5 million per year on a three-year deal from Seattle, which has quickly proven to be a steal. (In hindsight, he should have signed a one-year deal, like Jones did in Indy. With no other options, however, it wouldn’t have been easy to insist on a one-year commitment.)

Where will Willis fit? Much of it depends on the number of teams that pursue him. The Dolphins, who are now run by a pair of former Packers employees, are a team to watch — if they can wedge Willis’s contract into the cap wreckage of the Tua contract. The Cardinals, where Packers coach Matt LaFleur’s brother, Mike, is now the head coach, could make sense, too.

The Steelers could be an option, but they seem to be content to wait for Rodgers to make a decision. Which would take them out of play in the early days of free agency. The Vikings will be looking for a veteran to compete with J.J. McCarthy.

And don’t rule out the Ravens. If (and it’s not a big if but it’s still on the radar screen) they trade Lamar Jackson, they’ll need a quarterback, too.

Other teams that will or at least could be looking for a veteran quarterback include the Jets, Browns, Colts (if Jones leaves), and Falcons.

Someone surely will want Willis. The more teams that want him, the more money he’ll make.

The process will accelerate next week in Indianapolis, where every team will meet with every agent who represents every looming free agent in an annual swap meet of untraceable tampering that happens with no electronic footprints or popcorn trail.

Our guess is that Willis will land between $20 million and $30 million per year — unless a land rush emerges. If that happens, who knows? $35 million? $40 million? (While $40 million sounds like a lot, it’s still only 66.6 percent of the current market limit.)

Or maybe Willis will have the leverage and willingness to insist on a one-year deal that pays him a relatively modest salary but gives him another shot at free agency in 2027. (A no-tag clause would be even better, if not virtually impossible to finagle on a one-year deal.)

However it goes, it’s a story that isn’t getting the kind of attention it should, or that it will once teams start jostling for a chance to see whether Willis can do on a full-time basis what he did as a part-timer for the Packers.

His numbers suggest that he could be not just a capable starter but a potential superstar. With true franchise quarterbacks so hard to find, why wouldn’t someone roll the dice on the possibility of landing a player who could become one of the best quarterbacks in the league?

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