It's early May and NASCAR's standings have real consequence again

Conventional wisdom usually dictates waiting until after the Coca-Cola 600 to make any wide-sweeping declarations about the NASCAR Cup Series season but the sample size is becoming prescient.

After 11 races, the dice have been largely cast, and a hierarchy has been established with 15 races remaining until the new-look Chase for the Championship.

Remember, when NASCAR simulated thousands of hypothetical seasons, the eventual champion came from a top-three seed in 69 percent of those runs. That’s because the top 16 in points after Race 26 get consolidated but seeded based on where they finished.

1st: 2,100
2nd: 2,075 -25
3rd: 2,065 -35
4th: 2,060 -40
5th: 2,055 -45
6th: 2,050 -50
7th: 2,045 -55
8th: 2,040 -60
9th: 2,035 -65
10th: 2,030 -70
11th: 2,025 -75
12th: 2,020 -80
13th: 2,015 -85
14th: 2,010 -90
15th: 2,005 -95
16th: 2,000 -100

Thus, legitimate championship hopefuls are aiming to finish the regular season within the top-three or at least as close as possible to have the clearest path to celebrating with the Bill France Cup at Homestead in November.

Right now, this is what that looks like:

Tyler Reddick 526
Denny Hamlin 417
Chase Elliott 409
Ryan Blaney 371
Chris Buescher 345
Carson Hocevar 333
Ty Gibbs 330
Kyle Larson 318
Brad Keselowski 311
William Byron 308
Bubba Wallace 304
Ryan Preece 298
Christopher Bell 291
Daniel Suarez 271
Austin Cindric 248
Chase Briscoe 242
—
Joey Logano 235
Ross Chastain 216
Shane Van Gisbergen 215
AJ Allmendinger 199

So, with the change in championship formats, you can almost write off Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano and Ross Chastain as legitimate contenders this season — something you couldn’t do in good faith under the previous format.

There used to be this thing with Logano, called the ‘even year magic,’ where you just expected him to win his way into the Round of 16 and selectively win his way to the final four and take the championship.

This is a completely different format but Logano and the Team Penske No. 22 also just don’t look like themselves on performance and fortune after Sunday’s pit road collision with Cole Custer.

Also, this same conventional wisdom also suggests that Christopher Bell is becoming a championship longshot too. The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 team certainly has the speed to win in bulk over the final 10 races, however …

He is currently 51 points out of fifth place in the standings, which is where he would likely need to reach come the Chase for the Championship to begin with just a 45-point deficit to the regular season champion.

And sure, winning races now pays 55 points, up from 40 last year, and that’s the quickest path to chipping away at a deficit but Bell is certainly already thinking about the odds after getting crashed out of the lead on Sunday.

“I was worried about points about eight weeks ago,” Bell said after being released from infield care. “But it’s going to be what it’s going to be and they’ll reset with 10 to go. We got to finish as high as we can up until that point.”

Bell certainly understands the assignment.

Meanwhile, after winning Sunday’s race, crew chief for Chase Elliott, Alan Gustafson argues the inverse — that a team like the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 could still contend from any starting deficit.

“I don’t agree with that at all,” Gustafson said about writing anyone off. “How many races — how many races have we run?”

11.

“Okay. Do the math, right.” Gustafson continued. “After 10, Tyler Reddick had over a 100-point lead. Theoretically, if you repeat those races, he could start 16th and win the championship, right? So, I think anything is possible.

“I do think, look, everybody wants as many points as you can get. Certainly the best teams are going to position themselves towards the top. I’m not sleeping on anybody. I mean, somebody can figure something out and get hot. I don’t think 100 points makes anybody safe.”

Tony Stewart famously won the 2011 Chase for the Championship, in a tiebreaker with Carl Edwards, as a 10-seed after saying his team did not even belong in the playoff after how their regular season went.

‘Smoke’ won 5 of the 10 races in the type of generational run that Bell or Logano have certainly proven they are capable of delivering the cars they drive. This philosophy might even apply to Kyle Larson, who now finds himself eight in the standings after a mix of bad luck races where the defending champions just aren’t themselves.

Larson is 27 points out of fifth, which is certainly doable, but 91 points out of third place, which is where the most likely champions start to come from come September and the Chase for the Championship.

That’s the way you have to start viewing the standings now.

So, on the other hand, Reddick, Hamlin and Elliott look like the most likely champions right now. Reddick has what feels like an insurmountable 109 point lead in the regular season championship and giving him a 25-point head start in September is doable, even if he isn’t expected to win as much as Hamlin and Elliott, historically speaking.

That head start could allow the 23XI Racing No. 45 to nickel and dime those chasing him.

Ryan Blaney has 38 points to make up on Elliott for third, and that’s not out of the realm of possibilities, especially given how the Penske No. 12 is performing right now.

But most surprising this season is Chris Buescher (RFK) and Carson Hocevar (Spire) at fifth and sixth and they are most certainly counting points.

“We were the fourth highest points earner,” Hocevar said after finishing seventh. “Those help for sure.”

Buescher, meanwhile, is of two minds because he also wants to snap a winless streak dating back to Watkins Glen in 2024, while also being proud of their consistency after a fifth-place at Texas.

“Days like this do mean more than last year, they do, but at the same time, we’re not holding a trophy right now and that’s what we come here to do,” Buescher said. “You hate to lose, and while this is progress and it’s put us in good spots this season, that’s great and I’m proud of everyone at RFK, but it’s going to take a little bit more to be burning it down on the frontstretch.

“That’s the kind of top 5 we want but the points matter, and the consistency has been a strength of ours throughout my career, but now it definitely pays more from a Chase standpoint.

“In January, I told people making the Chase would not be a problem for us, and I had no doubt about that, but it was about how do we set ourselves up to be a real championship threat.”

But that’s just it, if Buescher can stay in the top five and maybe catch Blaney or Elliott, it’s possible to win championships again without multiple wins. No one is more capable of that kind of consistency like Buescher if he can find someway to start with no more than a 45 point deficit.

Either way, the points and consistency matter again, and even with a reset in September, the standings also matter in early May — just like a plurality of the industry said they wanted.

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