Aaron Nola has been around long enough that we can essentially know what to expect, for better or worse. That comes with familiarity and can bring equal levels of comfort and dread. But, 2026 is and will continue to be somewhat uncharted territory for Nola, as it’s the first time in his career that he is looking to rebound from an injury-filled, true disaster of a season.
So far, the results have been well…not far from typical Aaron Nola. The right hander has made four starts and pitched 22.1 innings. He’s made it through at least six innings in two of those starts, both of which were quality starts. He’s allowed 10 earned runs, good for a 4.03 ERA, on 23 hits. He has struck out 24 and walked six while allowing three home runs. His FIP of 3.57 and BABIP against of .333 suggest he has ever so slightly outpitched his traditional stats. But the Phillies so far are 1-3 in his starts after his most recent game Tuesday night when he only allowed 3 runs in 5 innings but surrendered a 3-0 lead.
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Nola’s average velocity of 90.7 MPH is identical to last season, but it is still early and he typically gains a few ticks as the season goes on. It’s a good sign that he’s already reached last season’s poor average this early in the season, leading credence to the idea it will follow his previous trend of improvement as the summer months approach. Nola’s curveball meanwhile has been excellent, holding opponents to a .125 batting average against and a whiff rate of 37.2%.
The days of Nola being a near top of the rotation arm are likely gone, but he still has the ability to be a quality middle of the rotation arm that racks up innings. And that’s precisely what the Phillies need him to be, as they have Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and soon Zack Wheeler to anchor the top of the rotation. So far, Nola has looked up to the task, even if doing it in typical frustrating Nola fashion. So how are you feeling about Aaron Nola’s 2026 so far?
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