I love JJ Wetherholt. You love JJ Wetherholt. Oli Marmol seems to love JJ Wetherholt, and, presumably his mom loves him, too. I’m not shy to admit that I’ve become enamored by a guy that I hope is in Cardinals red for a very long time – and immortalized in a red jacket long after he’s done playing.
At 23 years old, he has come to St. Louis and been exactly as advertised. I would contend that his offense is not even all the way unlocked yet and he’s still running a 111 wRC+. That’s pretty good work if you can get it. Honestly, JJ Wetherholt has star written all over him as evidenced by the fact that he’s on pace for a clean little 5.8 WAR season as a rookie. If this holds, and yes I’m aware it’s officially still Early, that would rank him 16th all-time in fWAR as a rookie, right behind a gentleman named Jose Alberto Pujols, who ran a 6.1 fWAR in the Bobby Bonilla-aided 2001 campaign. (Seriously, thanks Bobby!)
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I’ll detail why the defining feature of Wetherholt might just be his floor as a player, as strange as that seems, but I’d like to consider him from this angle and what it means for roster construction moving forward. Now, before you get your torches and pitchforks out, let me just say I think Wetherholt has more in the tank offensively and could see individual seasons where all goes extremely well for him and he’s on MVP ballots. I’ll give you a second to find hay for your pitchforks and water to safely extinguish your torches now.
I would contend that you need 2-3 transformational pieces to be in title contention. We can quibble about that, and I don’t want to get too lost in the weeds on that because every team is different. But, in baseball, it takes more than just transformation pieces. You need a depth of quality that leaves you with enough excellence to push through multiple rounds of the playoffs against the very best competition. I’m not sure the Cardinals currently have any transformational pieces in St. Louis (although there is at least one obvious candidate trying to change all our minds), but they certainly have some low floor pieces right now. In fact, we spent some time talking about what I’m calling the Crumbs of the Roster in our last Redbird Rundown episode. Give it a listen if that’s your thing – Apple and Spotify!
High-floor pieces are critical to building a championship contender, which is why I’m so enamored with thinking about JJ Wetherholt from this angle. The more of these players the Cardinals can lock in, the quicker this rebuild will be over and we can crack open the championship window and smell the alcohol-soaked locker rooms again. (Bad for the cleaning staff – great for the fans!)
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So, what about his floor as a player has me so excited? Let’s start with his strike zone command. The eye test tells you he’s feels about 3-2 counts the way most normal people feel about bubble baths. It’s his comfy zone. When watching the games, it feels as though every one of his at bats goes to 3-2. According to research by Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs fame, strikeout rate is at its lowest at age 25 and walk rate peaks from ages 29-31. This is a clear indication that a player commands the strike zone better as he ages.
That bodes extremely well for Wetherholt who is already running a walk rate in the 82nd percentile and a strikeout rate in the 65th percentile early in his rookie season. (Yes, I know it’s early!) Obviously there will be variance as the season goes on, but this is not the first time Wetherholt has ever played baseball. He has a sterling reputation (and statsheet to back it up) from college and last season in the minors to let us know he knows what he’s doing at the plate.
What does this mean? Wetherholt is as sure a lock for a 23 year old rookie with 24 games played to be a high OBP offensive player as you’re going to find. At a bare minimum, that screams high floor like a yeti on the backside of the Himalayas. Even now, he’s a one man wrecking crew for pitch counts and it’s entirely possible he will get better at these skills as he ages. Even accounting for times that will surely vary as a rookie, that’s an exciting prospect! (See what I did there…ahh the old double entendre!)
The high OBP floor isn’t the only marble surface worth shouting about when it comes to Wetherholt, the defense has been even better than advertised so far. Obviously, there will be some variance in this rookie season, but thus far he’s in the 98th percentile for defensive value in the MLB. Watch the games. He’s making the routine play and the spectacular – that’s a great sign. Once again, the defensive age curves favor Wetherholt as defense typically peaks around 26 years old.
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Honestly, this all tracks. He played shortstop for a major collegiate program and was drafted at that position. The only scouting concerns I can dig up on his defense were a worry about his throwing arm at short. Add in two quarts of Masyn Winn and two cups of a position change to second base and – voila! – you’ve got a fix. He gives every appearance of having a shortstop’s range and instincts while playing second base.
On the bases, he has league average sprint speed but is currently in the 92nd percentile in run value. This tells us that despite average physical gifts for speed (now he’s certainly much faster than you or I), he’s a very smart baserunner. Add this in with all the other ingredients and now you can see why I’m looking at JJ Wetherholt and seeing gleaming marble floors from an upscale building.
Let me go further, even if he never maxes out his offensive capabilities, JJ Wetherholt is bound to be a very valuable piece for years to come. I feel confident in what we’re seeing as confirmation that he is and will continue to be a high-floor player at a minimum. I also believe that these kinds of players are exactly what a roster needs to be populated with to truly compete.
That makes me excited – what about you? Let me know what you think in the comments, and, as always – thanks for reading!
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