This game we play can sometimes feel like The Hunger Games. At its core, fantasy football is about survival. But we form alliances to address our weaknesses. Storylines outside of our own affect our decisions. Plus, the landscape itself can change on a dime.
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We’ve already had to deal with backup QBs, injuries and our draft picks underperforming expectations. Now, we can add bye weeks to our list of weekly considerations. On the one hand, it gives us fewer games to monitor. But at the same time, it should have us focusing more on the remaining players and their situations.
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Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Jordan Addison resumed his role as the WR2 in his first game back after serving a three-game suspension. Fantasy managers concerned with his workload should be happy with an eight-target, 34.6%-air-yard-share debut resulting in over 100 receiving yards. Most would prefer not to see Addison get caught from behind by a linebacker, but let’s assume he’s still getting back into game shape after the time away.
Browns fans should be excited about Dillon Gabriel getting his first start heading into Week 5. Joe Flacco had thrown at least one interception and taken multiple sacks in every start. He ranked 29th out of 34 qualifiers in completion percentage over expected. He hadn’t thrown for a touchdown since Week 2. If Cleveland wants to continue fighting for the AFC North, a switch to the rookie might be the spark it needs to compete in the chaotic AFC North.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
I’m going to sound selfish, but I want more from George Pickens this week. No, not more points. I’ll take the same 33.4 PPR score he gave me last week. I mean, an expanded role as a WR. In Dallas’ barnburner against the Packers, the former Steeler only played 3.3% of his snaps from the slot, while averaging 14.6 air yards per target. Simply put, it’s a hard way to live as a receiver, even if you have one of the best QBs throwing you the ball. And while I’m not worried about the Jets defense (giving up the 10th-most points to WRs), any easy looks for Pickens would lift his floor until CeeDee Lamb returns.
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Mason Taylor’s target share has been on the rise since Week 1. HC Aaron Glenn noted the need to get the rookie TE more involved in the passing game heading into Week 4. A 25.9% target rate is about as “more involved” as it gets. More importantly, the lack of ancillary pass-catchers insulates Taylor from being a one-week wonder. Allen Lazard and Josh Reynolds both took a backseat after outbursts in Week 3. While the Cowboys have only surrendered one TD to a TE through four weeks (Cole Kmet), Taylor should offer another reliable option for Justin Fields to keep the offense on the move.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Another week, another game with J.K. Dobbins dominating the touches in the Broncos’ backfield. Boxscore scouts will tell you RJ Harvey forced a split. However, let’s remember who Denver faced in primetime on Monday night. Cincinnati was multiple scores down by halftime. By the third quarter, Dobbins had handled 55.6% of the carries. Harvey’s TD didn’t come until the fourth quarter in a blowout victory, making Dobbins the back to watch against the Eagles.
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All eyes will be on A.J. Brown after adhering to the “cryptic WR tweet” ethos following a game where his QB didn’t complete a pass in the second half. On the bright side, Brown was still the team’s WR1. His eight targets were double that of the next closest receiving option. Brown even accrued a whopping 70.0% of the air yards. However, as most film analysts have noted, his 25.0% catchable target rate diminishes the opportunity. Despite likely seeing All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II, let’s hope Hurts and Brown get back on the same page.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Woody Marks has been the subject of every waiver wire and preview show leading up to Sunday. So, I’m going to zag here. Even in a decisive win over the Titans, C.J. Stroud still faced pressure on over a third of his dropbacks. In one instance, Tennessee got through the line about as soon as Stroud got the snap. Nico Collins’ managers should be excited to see their WR1 go up against Baltimore’s secondary, but Houston’s offensive line might put a damper on our Sunday.
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I’ll cheat here and say the whole offense will be one to watch with Lamar Jackson likely on the sideline. Having Derrick Henry in the backfield should take the pressure off any QB, but the game script might push The King off the board. Henry’s snaps and rushing attempts dropped in Baltimore’s loss to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, there’s no telling who from the passing corps will stand out, with Cooper Rush having to fight through the Texans’ secondary, making all of them tough to trust in Week 5.
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
I’m assuming Darren Waller will see more work with Tyreek Hill done for the season. However, I hope it looks different than what we saw against the Jets. To be clear, by “different,” I don’t mean I’m against him catching two touchdowns. But his 11.3-yard aDOT was the highest on the team. If we’re going to call Waller “this year’s Jonnu Smith,” he’ll need that cut in half, along with an increased route share (only 37.0% route rate) for his fantasy value to match last year’s breakout from Smith.
Miami ranks in the bottom 10 in pressure and pass rush win rate. Every QB to face them has either crested 225 passing yards or accounted for multiple touchdowns. I want to see an efficient game from Bryce Young. One where he can operate behind his offensive line without seeing pressure on more than a third of his dropbacks. And there’s time for him to throw farther than 6.5 air yards per attempt. If it doesn’t happen against the Dolphins, it’s hard to see a path to him recapturing any of the improvements we saw in the back half of 2024.
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New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Jaxson Dart should have another strong outing against the Saints. Through four weeks, New Orleans’ secondary has given up two or more passing TDs to opposing passers. Even better, we’ve seen how they perform against mobile QBs. Kyler Murray opened the season with 38 yards on the ground. Josh Allen just dunked on them with 45 yards and a score. Even with a depleted pass-catching corps, Dart has the runway to get into the top 12 in Week 5.
Kendre Miller’s snaps have been on the rise since Week 1, and his carry rate has been steadily increasing over the last few games. His red-zone carry for a TD may be hard to replicate against the Giants’ run defense, but the third-year RB should be a bench stash in most 12-team leagues. His only drawback is the lack of receiving work (9.0% route rate, 2.0% target share). So, I’ll be watching for any increase in usage on either front in what should be a tough out for the Saints offense.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts
OK, so Geno Smith has averaged three interceptions per game while at home. So, let’s get him out of Nevada and see what happens. On the one hand, the Colts have the ninth-lowest pressure rate through four weeks. But their coverage has been tough to diagnose. Matthew Stafford (375-3-0) is the only QB to come out with a clean stat line. However, with more passing options at his disposal, Smith should be able to keep the offense on schedule.
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By the numbers, the Raiders are one of the toughest defenses for opposing run games. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest PPR PPG to the position. Normally, I’d adhere to the stats and act accordingly. But let’s look at the list of rushers they’ve faced: Rhamondre Stevenson, the Chargers’ RBs (Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton had eight each), Chris Rodriguez and D’Andre Swift. I don’t see anyone comparable to Jonathan Taylor among those names. And with the Colts’ offensive line continuing to open up rushing lanes (eighth-most adjusted yards before contact), Taylor will be a true test for Las Vegas’ defense.
Tennessee Titans @ Arizona Cardinals
For HC Brian Callahan’s sake, I’m looking for any improvement in Cam Ward’s ability to get the ball out to his receivers. Admittedly, that’d be difficult for anyone working behind the Titans’ offensive line. Ward has been under pressure on more than a third of his dropbacks in all four starts. Last week, Houston got in his face on 51.9% of his pass attempts. That should change against Arizona. The Cardinals rank 18th in pressure rate and have given up the fifth-most passing yards per game to enemy QBs. With a bit more time to operate in the pocket, we should see why the Titans took Ward first overall in the draft.
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I want to see if Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. can build off their Week 4 results. Sure, the production didn’t amount to a win, but Harrison’s reaction to getting into the end zone was noteworthy. The second-year receiver is still matching his rookie-season opportunity share (22.0% target rate, 39.0% air yard share) with an expanded role in the slot and short area of the field. Against the Titans (allowing the fifth-most PPR PPG to WRs), the Murray-Harrison combination should be on everyone’s mind watching this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
With Bucky Irving ruled out of Week 5 with his lower leg injury, how OC Josh Grizzard splits the backfield between Rachaad White and Sean Tucker will be the story of the day. White has been Tampa’s RB2 to start the season, with a 25.0% share of the carries and mixing in as a receiving option for Baker Mayfield (6.0% target rate). However, in games where he played more than 10.0% of the snaps, Sean Tucker averaged 52.9 scrimmage yards per game on 7.0 touches a week as both a runner and receiver. Since Tucker profiles as the more explosive option, fantasy managers looking for a spark on their own squad should consider the third-year rusher as a FLEX option in PPR formats.
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The Seahawks TEs were the stars of the show in Week 4. Elijah Arroyo went from no targets in Week 3 to having the second-most on the team in Week 4. Meanwhile, AJ Barner was the most productive pass-catcher of Sam Darnold’s in the red zone, securing his lone target for a 16-yard score. The shift to incorporating the TEs (plural) has been a missing element from Seattle’s passing game, but the shift lessens the potential for RBs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. If the usage continues, we’ll need to reassess our outlook for either rusher.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
In Week 4, I saw something coming to Jameson Williams that I hadn’t seen too often in the previous three games: The football. Williams had seen no more than 15.0% of Jared Goff’s pass attempts to start the season. At the same time, his 20.5-yard aDOT highlighted his boom-bust style of play, making his outings of 8.9, 7.3 and 7.0 PPR points all but predictable. But against the Bengals (allowing the 11th-highest explosive play rate to WRs), Williams should be a popular WR3/FLEX option for Week 5.
For my own mental health as a Bengals fan, I wonder if there’s any life left in this team without Joe Burrow under center. After two games with Jake Browning, Cincinnati is averaging 15.3 yards per drive and 165 yards of total offense. In that two-week stretch, no other team is below 200. Any ability to protect or open rushing lanes would be a welcome sight as the Bengals continue to spiral without their starting QB.
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Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Of course, I’m starting Jayden Daniels wherever I have him rostered. However, I expect fewer points from him in his first game back. And not just because the Commanders are going up against the Chargers (21st in PPG allowed to QBs), but the potential for fewer rush attempts for Daniels. We saw something similar in ’24. He averaged 10.5 carries (designed rushes plus scrambles) during the first six weeks of his rookie campaign. After missing Week 7, Daniels was down to 6.5 over his next four games. And with Terry McLaurin out and Deebo Samuel Sr. nursing injury, Daniels may fall into the QB2 range against L.A.
My tin-foil-hat take for the Chargers is that OC Greg Roman has been looking for an excuse to revert to a run-centric offense. And Week 4 gave him all the ammo he needed. They’re already down two star offensive linemen. Omarion Hampton looks like the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson (I’m being hyperbolic, but bear with me). Plus, Herbert is now second in QB hits. Simply put, I won’t be surprised to see a more conservative approach to play-calling moving forward.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Drake Maye is one of three QBs with top-five marks in EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected. Except for the Patriots’ QB, he’s not working with high-end pass-catchers (Jared Goff), nor does he have a top-shelf offensive line (Goff), or an unstoppable (theoretically) running game to keep the offense moving (Lamar Jackson). And yet, Maye has posted three straight top-12 finishes and should be able to continue producing against the Bills defense (13th in PPG allowed to QBs).
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I mentioned Khalil Shakir and the Bills’ passing game earlier this week as a potential point of frustration for fantasy managers. Because Josh Allen has so many options, only Shakir and Dalton Kincaid grade out as every-week starters. And even their production has some volatility to it. Shakir needed a 43-yard TD to buoy his Week 4 output. Kincaid fell into the end zone with the ball on one of his two targets. As opportunity seems to shift from week to week, so should our confidence in starting any of the Bills’ receivers.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Xavier Worthy’s return put the rest of the Chiefs’ receivers back where they belong. Hollywood Brown could operate as a WR2/flanker with less attention on him downfield. JuJu Smith-Schuster could pop in on obvious-passing scenarios to move the chains (three first-down receptions, tied for the most on the team). Plus, the running game looked functional with contributions from Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and rookie Brashard Smith. Assuming Worthy can take on more snaps, I’ll be looking to see if we get the best version of the Chiefs against the Jaguars.
I’m sitting Brian Thomas Jr. in leagues where I have him rostered. Sure, his metrics carry all of the hallmarks of a WR1. He’s earned +20.0% of Trevor Lawrence’s targets in all but one game. His air yard share has been north of 30.0% at the same clip. But the results don’t match. He’s the WR47 in PPR PPG. And since Week 2, the Chiefs have allowed the 10th-fewest yards to WRs. In what’s already been a frustrating start to the ’25 season, Week 5 doesn’t line up to be a better environment for Thomas and the rest of the Jaguars’ passing game.
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