Before we dive into specific players, I want to highlight the most difficult part of navigating the trade market. Selling high on a player who is off to a terrific start to the season takes plenty of guts. After all, that player has likely led your team to their current spot in the standings. And some players who are off to terrific starts are at the outset of a career year. But in situations where the underlying statistics do not support the player’s performance, selling high is usually the right idea.
Winning fantasy baseball leagues is all about playing the odds. No matter what path managers take, not every move is going to work out. Managers who have the courage to sell high may look back at early May as the pivotal time in an eventual championship run.
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Sell High
Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Managers should be able to get plenty in return for Carroll. Sure, he isn’t lighting baseball on fire, but the first-round fantasy pick is off to a solid start by being a five-category contributor (4 HR, 20 R, 18 RBI, 4 SB, .273 BA). Unfortunately, a look under the hood shows that Carroll’s batting average is being propped up by a .366 BABIP that is 68 points higher than his career mark and is not reflective of improved batted-ball quality. His strikeout rate is a career-worst 27.6%. A wise manager could trade Carroll for a slumping player who was similarly valued during draft season, and a quality second player.
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Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies
A common thread in this article all season will be to sell high on catchers before taking advantage of the depth at the position by combing the waiver wire. Goodman is a good candidate right now, as he ranks third among catchers in homers and runs scored, which is overshadowing the fact that his 38.4% strikeout rate is the worst of any qualified player. His xBA (.213) and xSLG (.436) are notably lower than his actual marks.
Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles
Rutschman looks like he’s all the way back from a multi-year slump, as he is hitting .289 with an .860 OPS. And despite those stats, my advice to fantasy managers is to trade the catcher for anyone who they believe will remain on their roster for at least two months. Rutschman is outperforming his expected stats as much as virtually any hitter. His skills haven’t improved, and he should be valued as a fringe roster member in one-catcher leagues.
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Brendan Donovan, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Mariners
Donovan is among the most overvalued players at this site, as his 80% rostered mark is 20% higher than it should be. The veteran is about to return from the IL, and although he was off to a solid start prior to the injury, he lacks the fantasy ceiling to be rostered in shallow contests. Heading into his fifth season, Donovan’s career-high marks were 14 homers, 65 runs, 73 RBI and five steals. Similar to Rutschman, managers should be happy to trade Donovan for anyone who could remain on their roster for at least two months.
Buy Low
Fernando Tatís Jr., 2B/OF, Padres
Some managers will be happy to stand behind Tatís, who has yet to hit a homer. That’s certainly what I would do. After all, the 27-year-old has posted elite marks in average exit velocity (92.8 mph) and barrel rate (12.5%). Sure, he could stand to produce more fly balls (25.3%), but he should have gone deep a few times by now. Some managers will be so frustrated by the lack of power that they will attach another effective player to swap Tatís for a different star, such as Carroll.
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Brent Rooker, OF, Athletics
Rooker hasn’t looked like himself so far this season, which can at least partly be traced to an oblique strain that cost him half of April. The 31-year-old is normally one of baseball’s most consistent power hitters, having gone deep at least 30 times in each of the previous three seasons. I would mention his concerning underlying statistics in a trade offer (33.3% strikeout rate, 88.6 mph average exit velocity) and try to get him at a major discount.
Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks
Marte has logged a disappointing .214 average that has been heavily influenced by a .237 BABIP. He is hitting the ball harder than ever before (92.8 mph average exit velocity) and his 19.9% strikeout rate is within a normal range of variance from his lifetime 16.0% mark. Marte has been unlucky with base knocks and RBI opportunities, which should balance out as the season progresses. He remains a top-five second baseman.
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Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics
Butler has fared so poorly (.180 BA, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 10 R, 4 SB) that many of his managers will pretty much give him away. But his skill-related statistics are virtually identical to those he logged when he was a 20-20 player last season, and when he produced 22 homers and 18 steals in 125 games the previous year. Butler has been held back by a .224 BABIP and remains someone whom fantasy managers should want on their roster.
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