We’ve reached Week 5 of the college football season, which means we’re really starting to dive into conference play. We see that on full display this weekend with massive Big Ten games like Ohio State at Washington and Penn State hosting Oregon, as well as a critical SEC bout between LSU and Ole Miss.
SportsLine college football expert Bruce Marshall, the longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet, has gathered information on Saturday’s top games and shares everything bettors need to know about Week 5 of the college football season. For those who are interested in college football betting, be sure to check out Marshall’s plays, as he’s 15-12-1 over his last 28 college football against-the-spread picks.
USC at Illinois
Forgive us for wondering what the reaction might have been had the Illinois game at Indiana last week not been a Saturday night nationally-televised affair, instead perhaps an early kickoff on the Big Ten Network as any Illini vs. Hoosiers game could have been in years past. Illinois might have preferred the game not be played at all, as the program was torched 63-10 by the rampant Hoosiers. Seldom have we seen a top-10 team fall out of favor so quickly; though the Illini are still appearing near the back-end of the weekly rankings. The Illini’s short-term credentials apparently took quite a hit in Bloomington. Now, Illinois is a near-TD underdog at home against a USC side that has yet to face a real serious test this season.
Is the number justified? Well, if Trojan QB Jayden Maiava completes 21 of 23 passes and tosses five touchdowns like Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza did last week, maybe so, though we can’t help but think the spread and the buy in the marketplace isn’t a bit of an overreaction to last week. After all, Illinois was ranked in the top 10 before facing the Hoosiers and had blown the doors off of Duke just two weeks earlier. Playing from behind at Bloomington, Illinois never had time to establish an infantry diversion, instead watching the Hoosiers tee off on quarterback Luke Altmyer. To Altmyer’s credit, he didn’t just chuck the ball in the air when facing the relentless pressure, as he didn’t toss a pick. This was the same Illini that had been scoring at a robust 45 points per game clip over their first three games, and emerging running back Kaden Feagin, a 250-pound piledriver, had just rushed for 100 yards the previous week against. Western Michigan. Altmyer still hasn’t tossed a pick in four games. As for the defense, Illinois was allowing barely seven points per game before running into the buzzsaw at Bloomington.
USC is still in the prove-it stage and is coming off of a far-from perfect effort at home last week against Michigan State replete with penalties and some blown assignments on defense, which forced the Maiava-led attack to keep scoring to retain a safe distance from the Spartans. Lincoln Riley’s offense is scoring at a 52 points per game clip, with Maiava yet to throw a pick and taking only two sacks. Yet the schedule has started to upgrade, and while it hasn’t impacted the team’s record, USC is coming off back-to-break spread losses against Purdue and Michigan State. Keep in mind that the only Big Ten road game Riley’s team covered the spread since the Trojans joined the loop was last year’s nailbiter at UCLA, which happens to be across town — USC has yet to cover the spread in a Big Ten game outside of LA County.
Line-of-scrimmage entries predictably gave the Trojans plenty of trouble last season, especially on the road where Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington all beat USC a year ago. The overreaction in the marketplace to only one of the results (Illinois) involving these two entries a week ago might be providing some rare value for Illinois, which, as long as last week was a one-off, doesn’t have the look of a team that should be getting this many points in Champaign-Urbana.
LSU at Ole Miss
There are some sighs of relief among the traditionalist fans of these entries that love the antagonism of this rivalry, which will thankfully be retained on an annual basis (at least through 2029) as the SEC has wisely kept the Tigers and Rebels as recurring opponents. Indeed, there was a time generations ago when this rivalry burned as hot as any in college football. There have also been recent memorable games in this series, including last year’ when the Rebs led nearly wire-to-wire before the Tigers would force OT on a gutsy, last-minute drive piloted by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who, for good measure, would then toss the winning touchdown in overtime.
Much speculation this week has centered upon the Ole Miss quarterback situation, which has evolved into a two-man situation thanks to the emergence of transfer Trinidad Chambliss, who won a lower-division national title at Ferris State before entering the portal with hopes of finding a Power 4 suitor. When early-season starter Austin Simmons suffered an ankle injury, however, Chambliss was ready to step in and create what might be a modern football version of Lou Gehrig and Wally Pipp. Chambliss has been so good, his knowledge of the offense so precise and his passes so catchable that Lane Kiffin really didn’t have to make much of a decision at all regarding his starter, made all the easier by the low-maintenance nature of Chambliss. This is a departure, sources say, from Simmons, who compounds some of his question marks by firing fastballs on his throws. We saw two get picked on downfield throws in the first quarter of the Sept. 6 Kentucky game (Simmons’ last start).
Chambliss has been so good in relief he’s now got longshot Heisman odds (80-1 the last we checked) after passing for more than 300 yards in each of his two starts with no picks, plus running for nearly 200 yards. It all came together on both sides of the line-of-scrimmage last Saturday when the Rebels dominated a good Tulane side 45-10, and the Chambliss-led offense piled up nearly 600 yards.
LSU hasn’t done anything wrong yet, either, though the overall performance of early foes Clemson and Florida (both 1-3) have taken some of the gloss off of the 4-0 break from the gate. Wins are wins, however, and those two, plus a 23-7 decision over an aroused Louisiana Tech, constitute good efforts, even if not especially flashy. Yet, do the Tigers warrant the rankings of No. 3 and No. 4 they have been assigned in recent weeks? Blake Baker’s defense is generating plenty of headlines ,allowing just 246 yards per game (ranks 17) and barely nine ppg (ranks ninth), though how much the Tigers have do with with early struggles by Clemson and Florida, which could also be much of their own doing, remains to be seen.
The aforementioned Nussmeier has not yet produced stats worthy of a Heisman contender, which he surely was entering the season, with just six touchdown passes and two picks through four games hasn’t set the voting community ablaze. The ground game, gaining under three yards per carry, has also disappointed.
Having already avenged one of the three defeats (Kentucky) that would eventually deny the Rebs a spot in the playoffs last December, Ole Miss look poised to continue their revenge tour, especially as Chambliss is looking like one of the biggest steals since the Louisiana Purchase.
Ohio State at Washington
Apparently, the secret is out on UW, as this price has dropped steadily from nearly two touchdowns down to a tick above seven. It also reflects much respect in the marketplace for second-year Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch, who would eventually mold a powerhouse at Arizona before making the move to Seattle. Most observers in the know were already prepared to offer Fisch a mulligan for the disappointing 6-7 mark a year ago, as there was a major departure of personnel (and staff) after Kalen DeBoer would leave for Alabama following the 2023 campaign. Though 2024 proved a letdown after the charge to the title game for DeBoer, Fisch has at least maintained a home edge at Husky Stadium, where the program’s home win streak has reached 22. The problems for Fisch’s UW were on the road, where the Huskies didn’t win a game last season but they ended that drought emphatically last week with a 59-24 mailing of Washington State in the Apple Cup in Pullman.
The difference between this season and last for the Huskies is like night and day, with the offense now a smooth-running machine with much more creative leadership on the field than a year ago, when limited Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers took most of the snaps. That started to change late last season, however, when electric true freshman Demond Williams took over the quarterback chores and provided an undeniable spark. With starting experience around him, Williams is now flourishing. He has yet to throw a pick in three games while also ranking as the Huskies’ second-leading rusher behind Jonah Coleman, who left Tucson along with Fisch after 2023 and is now approaching 3,000 career rushing yards. Meanwhile, holdover Denzel Boston is a legit downfield threat who burned the Cougs twice for touchdowns last week as this offense is scoring at a 56 points per game clip, albeit versus lesser opposition.
We can’t really say lesser opposition about OSU after it won that war of attrition in the opener against Texas and leapfrogging to the top of the polls thereafter. A subsequent 70-0 demolition of Grambling was unnecessary for the Buckeyes, who found themselves in a game versus scrappy Ohio U before eventually pulling away in the second half. Still, the offense shot itself in the foot several times last week and redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has tossed three picks across his last two games, though he did pass for over 300 yards against both Grambling and Ohio.
Both of these pilots will likely be facing more pressure this week, but we like the play-making ability of Williams, who has wheeled his way out of traffic several times already. We wonder, too, how the Buckeyes defense might hold up against a truly potent attack (and not Arch Manning and Texas in the opener). We already have a pretty good idea, as the new OSU defensive unit must, among other things, compensate for 2024 defensive coordinator Jim Knowles having left for Penn State in the offseason. Remember OSU lost its lone trip to the northwest (Oregon) last season. This doesn’t seem like the Buckeyes’ part of the country.
What to do? UW’s home mark, new cutting edge with Williams and the fact that the Buckeyes are playing their first road game of the season suggests this might be more than a bit difficult for Ohio State. As long as this price stays above UW at +7, the Huskies should be in play.
Oregon at Penn State
Though these two met in the Big Ten title game last December and are likely to see each other more often now that the Ducks have flown into the Big Ten, they haven’t seen much of one another across the years. Saturday presents the next chance for Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin to win “the big one” that has seemed to elude him throughout his career, though that label might be more accurately apply to games against Ohio State, as Franklin has only beaten the Buckeyes once since arriving at Happy Valley in 2014. It’s worth noting that last year, Franklin’s Penn State won two playoff games over SMU and Boise State, though most of the detractors only seem to recall the bitter loss to Notre Dame in the semifinals.
Even Franklin’s critics, however, recognize the firepower at Franklin’s disposal, as 13 starters, including quarterback Drew Allar, returned from last year’s 13-win side. While the Penn State offense developed a sharper edge last season with new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki (who came over from Kansas), Allar’s performances left something to be desired in losses to the Buckeyes and Irish. With apparent upgrades for downfield targets added via the portal (including ex-Syracuse Trebor Pena and ex-USC Kyron Hudson), Allar has more weapons at his disposal than ever.
Meanwhile, luring Knowles from Ohio State, where his blitz packages helped the Bucks win the national title, could also serve to put Penn State over the proverbial hump. Knowles’ defense is allowing less than six points per game thus far. About the only ding on Penn State right now is an 0-3 spread mark, though that requires some explanation as Franklin’s team has a win margin of nearly 40 points per game. Yet all three spreads to date have been 40+, and even then, Nevada and Villanova had to come in through the back door to squeeze out their spread wins. There will be no more 40+ spreads in the Big Ten — though who knows about the Oct. 4 game at UCLA.
It’s Oregon that had a bit more unsettled look heading into this season given that Dan Lanning was breaking in a new QB in former UCLA transfer Dante Moore after three years of crackling leadership provided by Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, both of whom are now in the NFL. Those were big shoes for Moore to fill, but he has looked pretty comfy in the pocket while tossing 11 touchdowns and almost 1,000 yards through the air over four weeks. It has helped to be able to lean on an infantry that’s among the nation’s leaders and churning for better than 250 rushing yards per game.
Keep in mind the soft nature of the Ducks’ schedule, where FCS Montana State in the opener rates as good of a win as any (are Oklahoma State, Northwestern and Oregon State really much better?). Don’t expect the Oregon ground game to do too much against Knowles’ defense; this is going to have to be a game where Moore needs to mature in a hurry, especially as the things that often work for the Ducks (like the ground game) against lesser foes might not click in Happy Valley. For all of his upside, Moore has never won a big game, or had a chance to win a big game, in his somewhat-limited college career to date. Facing the Knowles-led defense with all of its tricks figures to make for a difficult slog for Moore on Saturday night.
We also wouldn’t expect anything close to the 45-37 shootout we saw in December between these two teams, especially if Knowles’ defense, which has allowed just 17 points in three games, proves hard for Moore to solve. The Under might make almost as much sense to us as recommending Penn State.
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