One of the best modern-day rivalries in college football resumes on Saturday when the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes and No. 18 Florida State Seminoles collide at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla.
Beginning in the 1980s, the Hurricanes and Seminoles played in a series of high-caliber clashes with fantastic finishes. But both programs eventually endured tough times, reducing the rivalry to second-tier status on the national level.
This year, Miami (4-0) has established itself as a major national championship contender after knocking off Notre Dame in the season opener. Led by arguably the best defensive player in the country in Rueben Bain Jr., the Hurricanes have been suffocating on defense, allowing just 11.5 points per game, which ranks ninth in the country.
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Like Miami, Florida State (3-1) also looked poised to return to the national title chase this year after upsetting Alabama in Week 1 but lost to Virginia in overtime last week. Still, the Seminoles have the most prolific offense in the country, leading the FBS in both yards per game (600.0) and points per game (53.0).
Top sportsbooks have made the Hurricanes 4.5-point favorites over Florida State. The line has mostly stayed steady the entire week.
There are other games on the Week 6 schedule that have experienced more line movement. Two point spreads have moved by almost a touchdown.
So how much have the point spreads moved in the Week 6 games? And are the line movements overreactions or market corrections? Here’s a look at the Miami-Florida State game, one other matchup featuring two top-25 teams and three more games that have seen significant line movement. All times Eastern.
Air Force at Navy (noon)
Open: Navy -7
Current: Navy -13.5
This line is tied for the biggest movement of the week, shifting 5.5 points in favor of the undefeated Midshipmen (4-0), who lead the country in rushing offense (352.3 yards per game) and are averaging 38.3 points a game (24th in the FBS). They’ll face a 1-3 Falcons team that must transition from defending Hawaii’s pass-first attack last week to Navy’s triple-option offense. Air Force players also will be playing a game at 9 a.m. on their body clocks. No Navy victory has been by fewer than 12 points this season, so this line movement seems like a market correction.
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Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m.)
Open: Notre Dame -16
Current: Notre Dame -20.5
This line continues to climb, hitting 21 points on Friday after opening at 16. Since opening the season with losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Fighting Irish (2-2) have put up 56 points in back-to-back wins over Purdue and Arkansas. They should have no trouble scoring against a Broncos defense that gave up 37 points to Air Force just two weeks ago. Remember, with two losses already, Notre Dame must not only win to get into the College Football Playoff, it must also win impressively. But anyone wanting to back the Irish should jump on this number before it passes 21.
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion (6 p.m.)
Open: Old Dominion -15
Current: Old Dominion -19.5
Like the Air Force-Navy game, this spread also has moved by almost a touchdown. The Monarchs (3-1) are almost three-touchdown favorites now. Old Dominion has been good this season, and its season-opening loss to Indiana looks better every week. Quarterback Colton Joseph may end up winning Offensive Player of the Year honors in the conference if he continues his stellar play. But this line move seems more like a play against the Chanticleers (2-2), even though they are coming off a bye week. Coastal Carolina ranks 131st in the country in scoring offense (14.5 points per game).
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No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State (7:30 p.m.)
Open: Miami -5
Current: Miami -4.5
The line on this rivalry game hasn’t moved much despite the Seminoles’ loss at Virginia last week. In fact, the spread has moved a hair in favor of Florida State, but in reality, the sportsbooks seem to have gotten this one right. Rivalry factors often keep games close, and the Seminoles benefit from playing at home. This will be the Hurricanes’ first road game this season. If you have a strong opinion, make sure to shop around, as there are both 4s and 4.5s out there.
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