Lázaro Estrada is a 26-year-old (27 in April), right-handed pitcher, from Cuba.
He made it to the majors for the first time last year, pitching in two games, 7.1 innings. He was hit pretty hard, 10 hits in 7.1 innings, but he also had 10 strikeouts.
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Lázaro was #36 on our Top 40 Prospect list in 2024 (in 2025, he turned 25, and we don’t consider players 25 and over ‘prospects’). Tom_M wrote:
There are three pitches in Estrada’s arsenal. The fastball is a four seamer that’s not hard, sitting 91-94, but has nice vertical ride and horizontal run. His changeup is rarely used and doesn’t have impressive shape, but it does sit 10mph off his fastball and can get some chases. In the past, his breaking ball has been the star of his arsenal. Before 2023, it was a curveball that he could occasionally snap off with spin rates up to an elite 3,400 RPM. This year the curve was replaced with a slow slider. He still spins it at around 2,700 RPM, which would be in about the 90th percentile in MLB, but in a couple of looks this year the movement wasn’t as impressive as that would suggest. Estrada’s command is solid and seems likely to end up average.
Estrada profiles mostly as a reliever, with only one pitch that looks like it has the potential to be a difference maker in MLB and a spotty track record of durability, but he’s performed so far and the breaking ball bears watching. At 25 and rule 5 eligible, he’ll need to move this year to have a hope of reaching Toronto.
He pitched most of the 2025 season in Buffalo. He had a 5.73 ERA in 26 games, 25 starts, with a 5.73 ERA. In 97.1 innings, he had 99 strikeouts and 32 walks.
Estrada has two option years left, but I’m thinking this is a pretty important year for him, if he’s going to have a major league career.
Steamer thinks Estrada is going to pitch in 23 games, 23 innings, with a 4.19 ERA with 21 strike outs.
The team has added a bunch of relievers this off-season and there are younger arms coming up quickly behind Lázaro. But he gets a lot of movement on his pitches, as you can see in this gif from Sportsnet. He would be better off on a team that could let him pitch and find his way in the majors. But, unless he’s DFAed, I think he’s going to end up in Buffalo, hoping to be next in line when we need a pitcher in case of an injury.
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I don’t think there is enough prospect shine left on him to be a trade piece, but who knows. I think he could be a good major league pitcher. I’m not sure he’ll get the chance.
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