Out of the five players the Nats received in the MacKenzie Gore trade, RHP Alejandro Rosario is the most complicated case. He has the highest upside of anyone in the package, but also has the lowest floor. The case of Alejandro Rosario is strange and mysterious, but if things break the right way, the Nationals are getting a top of the rotation arm.
While Rosario has massive upside, there is a lot of weirdness involved too. After a dominant 2024 season which we will get into, Rosario blew out his elbow last February. In the modern game, this is not unusual at all. Pitchers go down with major injuries all the time.
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However, this is just where the weirdness starts. In July, it was reported that Rosario had yet to undergo surgery. Apparently, Rosario was dealing with something that made him unable to get surgery. A couple weeks ago though, it was reported that Rosario had finally undergone surgery. However, after the trade, Paul Toboni refuted that, saying he had not had surgery yet, but will in the next few weeks.
This is such a weird situation, and we are still awaiting clarity. Assuming Rosario actually has surgery in the next few weeks, he will be out for all of this season as well. At that point, Rosario will have missed the last two seasons due to this elbow injury. With all the time off, it is very hard to say if he will be the same pitcher. If he is the pitcher he was in 2024 though, the wait will be worth it.
The last time we saw Alejandro Rosario on the mound, he was one of the best pitching prospects in the sport. Despite an underwhelming career at the University of Miami, the Rangers still took Rosario in the 5th round of the 2023 draft due to his stuff. That bet paid off in a big way in his first pro season.
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Rosario put up video game like numbers between Low-A and High-A. He posted a 2.24 ERA in 88.1 innings with 129 strikeouts to just 13 walks. That is just an absurd level of dominance and it made him a consensus top 100 prospect after the 2024 season.
It was not just the production that excited people about Rosario, it was also the stuff. He showcased three potential plus pitches with plus command in 2024. His fastball averaged 97 MPH on his fastball and it had good carry at the top of the zone. He also has a hard splitter that absolutely devastates hitters. To round out the arsenal, he also has a mid-80’s slider that is a potentially plus pitch too.
The craziest part of all is that he commands all of these weapons at a very high level. Rosario walked just 3.7% of hitters in 2024, which is nuts. He was pounding the zone with his premium stuff and hitters could not cope.
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He will be out for two years, but the guy from 2024 is a top of the rotation arm. On the radio, Paul Toboni said the Nats would have had absolutely no shot at getting a player like this without the injuries. He acknowledged the risk he was taking, but felt like it was worth it.
In a five player package, taking a swing on Rosario makes a lot of sense. With players like Gavin Fien and Devin Fitz-Gerald in the deal, you are not relying on Rosario to make the haul worth it. He is just a high end lottery ticket with the chance to become a star.
There was a post that said Nats fans should think of this a little bit like the Cade Cavalli situation. I think there is a lot of truth in that. Rosario just turned 24 earlier this month, so we probably are not going to see the best of him until he is 26 or 27 years old, like Cavalli. However, if that stuff comes back, the Nats are getting a real piece, just like Cavalli.
With how strange the Rosario saga has already been, I would not be shocked if he never throws a pitch in the MLB. I also would not be shocked if he has a top 10 finish in Cy Young voting one day. There is such a wide range of outcomes here. As a second or third piece of a five player deal, I am fine with accepting the massive variance.
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We are going to have to make sure that Rosario actually gets the surgery, but if he does, he will be tracking for an early 2027 return. Hopefully the potential lockout does not provide yet another complication.
Even if he does come back fully healthy in early 2027 and games are being played, we are probably not going to see the best of Alejandro Rosario until 2028 and beyond. He will likely be pretty rusty after all that time off. This is a long term bet, but there is a chance the Nationals hit the jackpot here.
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