With eleven games under rookie Juan Brito’s major league belt, he is entering a stretch where it will be important for him to prove he can make some needed adjustments to continue top-side with Cleveland.
For Brito’s first 24 plate appearances, things could not have gone much better for the young hitter. He had a 102 wRC+ with a 20.8/8.3 K/BB%. He saw 21% four-seamers, 16% cutters, 10% sinkers, 24% sliders, 22% changeups, and 6% curveballs. In the following 21 plate appearances, Brito has put up a -20 wRC+ with a 42.9/4.8 K/BB%. From promise to disappointment… such is the life of many a baseball player. But, will Brito return to the promise we saw at first?
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Well, have opposing pitchers begun attacking him differently? Nothing stands out when we look at pitch mix… Brito has seen a 10% increase in four-seamers (the decline coming from fewer changeups) in the past 21 plate appearances. Have pitchers begun going to different plans in locating those pitches? Aha… yes. During the first half of his 45 major league plate appearances, Brito saw 23.6% of the pitches thrown his way land outside the strike zone. During the second half, that number has increased to 31%. So far in the bigs, Brito has chased 38% of the time (36% in that first 24 PA’s and 39% in the following 21 PA’s), and only made contact outside of the zone 53% of the time. In looking at his chase rates, this doesn’t seem to be a pitch-specific issue; he’s chasing both fastballs and offspeed and breaking pitches outside the zone.
This is the big issue for Brito at the plate. If he is chasing pitches at anything near the rate he is right now, he will not be able to take his walks (obviously) and he will not consistently get pitches he can pull in the air. Brito does not have elite raw power to compensate for any of those losses in value by doing maximum damage on the few pitches he does see in the zone. He is not fast (34% sprint speed), so he will not be stealing bases when he does take a walk. He has to learn to chase less often, take his walks, and force pitchers to bring the ball into the zone where his 86% zone-contact can allow him to pull the ball in the air and be a dangerous offensive presence.
He can’t do what he did tonight as I was writing this article, for example. This is Brito against a fastball outside, a cutter in the zone, and three changeups to end the at-bat out of the zone from Astros’ pitcher Spencer Arrighetti:
Plaster this all over your locker, Juan. Opposing pitchers are going to do this to you until you force them to bring the ball into the zone.
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Most folks reading this article are more concerned with Brito’s defense, I suspect. He has -2 Defensive Runs Saved so far and 0 Outs Above Average. It’s hard to tell much from small sample sizes of fielding stats, of course, but he also has looked in over his head at several points, and cost the Guardians a game in Atlanta by muffing a 91 mph grounder hit right at him. Brito can’t be making a notable error every week and costing the team games. There is no surer way to find himself hopping a bus back to the state’s capital.
It’s a critical time for Brito to begin to adjust back, because the team has two options to play second base who are performing quite well. In the majors, Daniel Schneemann has a 153 wRC+ with a 27.6/8.3 K/BB%. and he’s also been an average-good fielder all over the field, including 3 DRS and 5 OAA at second base for his career. In the minors… you guessed it… in 168 plate appearances at Triple-A, Travis Bazzana has a 134 wRC+ and a 22.6/19.3 K/BB% there. Getting Bazzana up soon and getting his feet wet to let him work through the usual struggles he has experience at each new level he reaches could be extremely helpful for a potential playoff run later in the year. Finally, Gabriel Arias is beginning baseball activities, and, while I suspect Rocchio has Wally Pipped his partner at short, I do think the team would promote Arias and demote Brito, rather than risk losing Arias’s glove in a DFA (I leave no comment on whether this is risk worth respecting).
I have been saying for a while that I think Brito’s best position is in the corner outfield. I still believe that’s the case, but, it will rely on him being able to get to his plate discipline and pull-air power on a somewhat consistent basis. I suspect that is what we will see him get the chance to do over the next 2-4 weeks… at which point, we will probably see either Arias OR Bazzana. Meanwhile, I would continue to give Schneemann 2-3 starts a week vs. RHP, at least until he shows signs of cooling off (as Angel Martinez has done).
I have long been a believer in Brito’s plate discipline and pull-fly ball ability. It certainly won’t be the worst or the last time I am wrong if he can’t quite reach his potential in the major leagues, but it would definitely be a tough pill to swallow for a young guy finally reaching his lifelong dream of being a big leaguer, and on a good team. We will keep rooting for you, Juan, even if the arrival of Bazzana is what’s going to drive media attention when it happens.
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