2026 NBA playoffs: Predictions for every first-round series

The first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs begins Saturday. Who will advance to the conference semis? Here are our staff predictions for every series.

Everything to know for the NBA playoffs: Predictions, series previews, X-factors

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Dan Devine: Celtics in 5
Tom Haberstroh: Celtics in 5
Kelly Iko: Celtics in 4
Morten Stig Jensen: Celtics in 5
Steve Jones: Celtics in 5
Kevin O’Connor: Celtics in 4
Ben Rohrbach: Celtics in 6
Dan Titus: Celtics in 5

Joel Embiid will miss the start, if not all, of the first-round series against the Celtics because of an appendectomy. So odds are Philadelphia’s season is over. But if the Sixers hang on, and if Embiid comes back, it’s gonna be because they replenished his scoring elsewhere. Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and VJ Edgecombe will handle most of that. But there needs to be another guy. There will need to be a Quentin Grimes Game. — O’Connor

Given all of Boston’s efficiencies — fewest turnovers per game, third in made 3s per game and top-five in offensive rebounding rate — it is hard to imagine the Sixers manufacturing enough points, even with Maxey, Edgecombe and George as options. — Rohrbach

Read the full 76ers-Celtics preview

Dan Devine: Knicks in 6
Tom Haberstroh: Knicks in 7
Kelly Iko: Knicks in 6
Morten Stig Jensen: Knicks in 7
Steve Jones: Knicks in 6
Kevin O’Connor: Knicks in 7
Ben Rohrbach: Knicks in 6
Dan Titus: Knicks in 6

The Hawks are tough, talented, versatile and athletic, with enough experience that it’s unlikely they’ll wilt in the postseason hothouse, despite it being this core’s first trip as a unit. But these Knicks have won at least one road game in the opening round in each of the last three postseasons — and, in fact, eliminated the Cavaliers, 76ers and Pistons all away from MSG. I expect the trend to continue, with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns having big series en route to New York’s fifth series win in the last four postseasons. — Devine

Read the full Hawks-Knicks preview

Dan Devine: Cavs in 7
Tom Haberstroh: Cavs in 6
Kelly Iko: Cavs in 5
Morten Stig Jensen: Cavs in 6
Steve Jones: Cavs in 6
Kevin O’Connor: Cavs in 4
Ben Rohrbach: Cavs in 6
Dan Titus: Cavs in 5

I expect close games. In the clutch, Toronto’s offense has managed just 106.9 points per 100 possessions — a bottom-10 figure. Meanwhile, since Harden first took the floor for Cleveland, the Cavaliers are netting 131 points per 100 clutch possessions. Dare we say trust in Mitchell and Harden (or at least more than Barnes and Ingram)? — Rohrbach

Immannuel Quickley is all beat up. He missed time with plantar fasciitis. He didn’t look quite like himself after his return in April. Now he has a right hamstring strain. But the Raptors need him to keep up with the Cavaliers. In 70 games this year, he averaged 16.4 points per game and shot 37.4% from 3 while displaying dynamic scoring talent with and without the ball in his hands. If Quickley isn’t able to produce, this will be a quick series. — O’Connor

Read the full Raptors-Cavaliers preview

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Dan Devine: Spurs in 5
Tom Haberstroh: Spurs in 6
Kelly Iko: Spurs in 5
Morten Stig Jensen: Spurs in 5
Steve Jones: Spurs in 5
Kevin O’Connor: Spurs in 4
Ben Rohrbach: Spurs in 5
Dan Titus: Spurs in 5

Between Deni Avdija’s physical driving, Donovan Clingan’s bulk on the interior, the positional size the Blazers can bring to bear across the perimeter, the quality defenders they can throw at De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and the quality of their depth, I don’t think this is going to be a comfortable matchup for San Antonio. I do think it’s one they’ll be able to withstand, though, finishing off a tough but quick series and moving on to bigger and better things. — Devine

Dan Devine: Nuggets in 6
Tom Haberstroh: Nuggets in 5
Kelly Iko: Nuggets in 6
Morten Stig Jensen: Nuggets in 6
Steve Jones: Nuggets in 7
Kevin O’Connor: Nuggets in 7
Ben Rohrbach: Nuggets in 7
Dan Titus: Wolves in 7

I can buy that this Wolves team — with Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels back, with all its principals rested, with its surfeit of experience with and confidence in this specific matchup — can reach another level under the bright lights of the postseason. I just have an easier time buying that the same’s true of a version of the Nuggets that has Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray playing as well as they ever have (which is saying something) and has Gordon healthy and back in the mix. — Devine

Read the full Timberwolves-Nuggets preview

Dan Devine: Rockets in 6
Tom Haberstroh: Rockets in 5
Kelly Iko: Rockets in 5
Morten Stig Jensen: Lakers in 7
Steve Jones: Rockets in 6
Kevin O’Connor: Lakers in 7
Ben Rohrbach: Rockets in 6
Dan Titus: Rockets in 6

On April 2, we were told the injuries to both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves were pretty significant. Like, maybe a month-long or more. To think either will be available for this series, let alone at full strength, is a long-shot bet. Just ask the bookmakers. — Rohrbach

Read the full Rockets-Lakers preview

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