2026 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks & Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks & Preview

Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf making his early 2026 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.

WATCH: Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2026 Fantasy Golf Picks | Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown, Guess The Odds

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 12
Defending Champ: Rory McIlroy

Two years ago Pebble was given signature status. Something I found exciting. Pebble Beach is one of the TOUR’s most iconic courses and for decades it delivered the worst broadcast of the year. The event was a massive disservice for viewers. Especially since, being the first event after football ends, Pebble is generally where a lot of most casual audience tunes in for the first time every year. Classic put your worst foot forward type of stuff.

The broadcast suffered from all the problems we still witness at The American Express: Limited cameras and and shot link at the other courses. Brutal stuff.

For decades, this tournament was marred by the awful three-course rotation, 54-hole cut, Pro-Am format. But that changed in 2024. While I’m usually a hater of smaller fields, shrinking this one from 156 to 80 players was a godsend. Anyone who ever sat through one of those brutal CBS Saturday rounds, where they spend more time breaking down Larry the Cable Guy’s swing in slow motion (sorry, Konica Minolta Vision!) than actually showing shots of, you know, professional golfers, knows precisely what I’m talking about.

Since the upgrade to signature event status there’s no cut, which isn’t awesome, but they dropped Monterey Peninsula from the course rotation and limited the Pro-Am portion of the event to just the first two rounds. The field splits between Pebble Beach GL and Spyglass Hill the first two rounds before only playing at Pebble over the weekend.

The Gods decided this was too much of a good thing in 2024. Weather blew everything up and it became the first 54-hole tournament on TOUR since the 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. We were robbed of a fantastic weekend showdown at Pebble in the first tournament with all the best players TOUR. They got us back last year. Rory put on a clinic, bombing and gouging his way to a two-stroke win, kicking off a run where he’d win at Pebble, Sawgrass, and Augusta National over a two month period.

Of the top players in the world (excluding LIV guys, obviously), only Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im aren’t playing. Still no word on when they’ll be making a return. Aaron Rai is back listed in the field after pulling out of the Farmers after lineup lock for DFS players. Helpful stuff.

Keith Mitchell, Tony Finau, and Billy Horschel are in the field on sponsor’s exceptions.

The final stragglers from Europe are all making their debut too: Rory Mcilroy, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood. Each played back-to-back weeks in Dubai in January. Rory and Lowry both posted a T3 at the Dubai Invitational while Tommy didn’t finish better than 25th in either start.

The big question I had for 2024 was: Will we see the top end players dominate or will Pebble beach be ripe for shorter hitting long shots like previous years? Wyndham Clark won at +6000 in three rounds, but was surrounded on the leaderboard by equal parts betting favorites and super long shots. Answer: Inconclusive.

Last year, it was Rory, Lowry, and Rose at the top with the shorter hitting Lucas Glover, Tom Kim, Russell Henley, and Sepp Straka with a spattering of Cam Davis. Davis’ up-and-down from the tree roots on the 72nd hole was one of the shots of the year.

Answer: Also Inconclusive

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Key Stats

Proximity Gained: 100-150 Yards
Performance On Small Greens Courses

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Course (s)

Course: Pebble Beach GL (Three Rounds)

Number of Sand Bunkers: 116
Number of Water Hazards: 1 (ocean)
Average Green Size: 3,500 sq. ft

Par 3’s (4): Average distance – 170 yards

2025 Rory: two Par 3 bogey’s in his first run at Pebble, three birdies over the weekend on the 3’s
Four holes have a bogey rate north of 20% and two are Par 3’s (Holes 5 and 12)

Par 4’s (10): Average distance – 413 yards

Four of the most difficult six holes are Par 4’s that come within the first 10 holes when playing the course in order (Holes 1-8-9-10, all of which have an over-par rate over 18%)
2025 Rory:Weekend at Pebble: six Par 4 birdies against one bogey

Par 5’s (4): Average distance – 541 yards

2025 Rory: Par 5 eagle in two of three rounds at Pebble, birdied the first Par 5 in all three Pebble rounds
The two front-9 Par 5’s are must gets … the two easiest holes on the course, both with an eagle rate over 2.5% and a birdie rate over 45%

DFS Streak

Pebble Beach GL is designed to keep us from leveraging starting hole in showdown. If you’re going front-to-back, you run into holes 8-9-10 in succession, all of which rank among the five toughest on the course. If you’re going back-to-front, you get access to Holes 18-1, both of which are among the seven easiest, but to go streaking, you need three straight … holes 2 and 17 rank as the second and third toughest on the course respectively. I don’t think many streaks cross over the 9’s this week, but if they do happen, I think going back-to-front is the play, as you only have to birdie one tough hole as opposed to two.

While Wyndham Clark did it in 2024, the odds of birding 8-9-10 is under 0.1%. Going the other direction, Hole 1 is tough (13% under par rate), but the surrounding holes are manageable (Holes 18-2-3 all rank easier than course average).

Course: Spyglass Hill GC (One Round)

Number of Sand Bunkers: 62
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 4
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 171 yards

2025 Rory: Birdie-Ace on the Par 3’s on the Back-9
Take your pars … three of the most-oft par’d holes are Par 3’s (short #15 carries a 21% birdie rate)

Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 410 yards

2025 Rory: nothing but par’s on the Par 4’s for the back-9 (two front-9 birdies)
The three toughest holes on the course are Par 4’s, two of which come in a three hole window (Holes 6-8)

Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 567 yards

2025 Rory: Par’d three of four on Thursday
Two have an eagle rate over 2%, but three do have a bogey rate over 10%

DFS Streak

The advantage is limited, but by going back-to-front, you get access to a short Par 4 (#17) and a Par 5 (#1), making that the way to go if you’re really trying to split hairs.

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: PAST WINNERS

2024: Wyndham Clark -17 (54 Holes)

PAST WINNER NOTES

2025 – Rory McIlroy (+1400 as the second favorite) at -21, two clear of Shane Lowry

Rory was the best off the tee (+6.2, no one else over +4.5) and a top-10 putters (+4.3)
The top 4 Par 5 scorers for the week all cashed top-10 paychecks

2024 – Wyndham Clark (+6000) at -17, one clear of Ludvig Aberg (Only 3 Rounds)

Clark gained 6.9 strokes with the putter (best in the field, Hubbard was next at +4.8)
7 of the top 10 finishers lost Prox 175-200

2023 – Justin Rose (+3500) and -18, three clear of the Brandon’s (Todd and Wu)

Half the top-10 lost strokes around three green
Five of the top 6 finishers gained putting from 15-20 feet

2022 – Tom Hoge (+6000) at -19, two clear of Jordan Spieth … three course rotation

14 of the top 15 finishers gained off the tee
The top-5 finishers all gained in Prox 150-175, 12 of the top-15 gained 175-200

2021: Daniel Berger (+1400)

2 courses, four eagles in three rounds at Pebble, including two on Sunday (-6 on the Par 5’s in that round)

Berger was 6th in approach and 15th in around-the-green — 10 of the top 13 finishers gained multiple strokes putting (Cameron Tringale led with +6.3, fueling his T-7th finish despite ranking outside of the top-25 in T2G)

Highlight: Berger moved the wrong way on “moving day” with a 72, but was seven shots better on Sunday
The Top-11 finishers all gained Driving Distance on the field
The Top-13 finishers all gained with the putter

2020: Nick Taylor (+12500)

3 course rotation, Sunday had windy AF conditions for the first time that week and Taylor wasn’t immune — he was +4 over a four hole stretch (Holes 11-14). The difference? His good was really good: -4 in a three-hole stretch early to get distance (Holes 4-6) and two birdies in three holes late (Holes 15-17, following an ugly ‘7’ on Hole 14)
Highlight: Taylor was the Round 1 leader (by three strokes) after shooting a 63
The Top-10 finishers all gained with the putter (Taylor was the second best putter for the week)

2019: Phil Mickelson (-19, three shots clear of Paul Casey)

Highlight: Mickelson bookended the tournament with 65s and led the field in approach
The top-9 finishers all gained in Good Drives (only four gained in distance)

2018: Ted Potter (-17, 3 clear of Day/Mickelson/Reavie/DJ)

Highlight: Potter fired a 62 on Saturday (best round of the weekend, no one else had a round better than 64)

2017: Jordan Spieth (-19, 4 clear of Kelly Kraft)

Highlight: Spieth was inside the Top 5 in Good Drives and GIRs for the week
3 of the Top 9 finishers gained over 50 strokes of distance BUT lost fairways to the field

2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17, 1 clear of Mickelson)

Highlight: Progressively got better … 70-68-67-65
Taylor won despite losing almost a stroke with the putter (the other Top 15 finishers all gained with the flat stick … Taylor picked up 10.2 strokes T2G, 2.8 better than anyone else)

First Round Leaders

2025 ROUND 1

Pebble Beach GL

65 – Justin Rose, Cam Davis, Victor Hovland, and Jake Knapp

Spyglass Hill

2024 ROUND 1

Pebble Beach GL

Spyglass Hill

63 – Thomas Detry (birdie streak on Holes 1-3, shot 5-under on Back-9)
64 – Patrick Cantlay (Five birdies on Holes 1-8, included Holes 1-2)
66– Emiliano Grillo (birdied Holes 1-2) and Si Woo Kim (didn’t birdie Hole 1, but was -5 on his next 7 holes)

2023 ROUND 1

Pebble Beach

Spyglass Hill

2022 ROUND 1

Pebble Beach

Spyglass Hill

64 – Seamus Power (Eight birdies and no bogeys)

2021 ROUND 1

Pebble Beach

62 – Patrick Cantlay (Pebble, seven birdies on Holes 1-8)
64 – Henrik Norlander (four birdies on Holes 1-7)

SpyGlass hill

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Notes

Pebble Beach is annually the course with the shortest average drive on TOUR (274 yards vs. 291yards) and the one with the fewest amount of drives over 320 yards (5.3%). In theory, this should mitigate the advantage of the premier drivers in the world — aka most of the elite players — since so many players will be less than driver off the tee. Unless you’re Rory and simply smash it over the trees.

Elite drivers dominated during the 2019 US Open when all of top guys played. Woodland won, with Brooks, Rahm, Xander, Louis, and Rory all finished Top 10 that year. That was under USGA conditions, though. In the much easier Pro-Am set up will it just play like normal and the skill advantage will be equalized? In the regular tournament, as much as we don’t want to really say, it’s kind of a putting contest.

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has historically opened the door for long-shot winners. Three of the past nine winners — Potter, Nick Taylor and Vaughn Taylor — all went off at triple digits. Overall, the last nine winners have all been either 30/1 or below (Rose, Spieth, Mickelson and Berger, Rory) or 100/1 or longer. Hoge became the lone outlier opening 65/1 in the betting market and running down Spieth over the final holes. I’m not counting Clark since it was 54-holes.

Coastal winds can be a contributing factor to this, as well. Pebble Beach can switch from easy to frustratingly difficult with a wind shift. Spyglass tends to be more protected with the trees.

Shot Link data is only available for Pebble Beach GL. When you’re researching the statistics keep this in mind as half the rounds golfers have played historically at this event are not weighted in the Strokes Gained metrics.

Course history has been strong at Pebble Beach. All winners this millennium had previously made a cut at Pebble Beach in their career before winning, and most had a Top 10 finish on their resume (Clark at a T18 in 2020). A lot of that can be attributed to comfortability on these greens. If you thought the short misses were bad at Torrey Pines, just wait for the misses this week, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach GL.

Pebble Beach Putting Ranks by Distance

Inside 5’ 94.97% (3rd Lowest)
5-10’ 50.3% (2nd Lowest)
Inside 10’ 84.59% (3rd Lowest)
5-15’ 40.39% (2nd Lowest)
15-25’ 13.18% (3rd Lowest)

Of players with four or more rounds at Pebble Beach GL, only Andrew Putnam, Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge, and Daniel Berger are averaging over 0.85 SG/PUTT per round at Pebble Beach GL.

Stats & Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf

Green sizes at Pebble Beach at just 3,500 square feet. Hence the extra consideration for SG: Around The Green, as making putts from outside 10-feet is quite the chore.

2026 Smallest Avg. Greens by sq. ft.

3,500 – Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach)
3,700 – Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
4,300 – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude)
4,700 — PGA West Stadium Course (American Express)
4,773 — La Quinta CC (American Express)
5,000 — Spyglass Hill (AT&T Pebble Beach)
5,000 — Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge)

(Daniel Berger has four career wins; 2 at Southwind, 1 at Colonial, 1 at Pebble)

Since 2000, the leader or co-leader after 54 holes has gone on to win 13 times, including nine of the past 11 years. Rose led by a stroke a year ago, Hoge was tied with Hossler and Putnam, Berger was T2, one stroke behind Spieth in 2021, and Phil Mickelson was three back of Paul Casey entering the final round in 2019.

Six first-round leaders have gone on to win at Pebble Beach since 2000, as Nick Taylor became the sixth in 2020. He also became the first international winner at of this event since Vijay Singh in 2004. With his 2023 victory, Justin Rose became the first player from Europe to win.

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Picks

Russell Henley — While it appears the bloom is off the rose with the calendar switch, Henley’s actually well above his usual performance on approach play. He was waylaid at Waialae with a wonky driver and simply couldn’t make enough putts at Stadium Course to truly contend at AMEX. He still has T19/T9 results to begin the year. Henley is, however, gaining an outrageous 1.56 SG: APP over those two starts. If he can keep his accuracy up off the tee, continue this amazing iron play, and not gag away all his chances on missed short putts, he’s primed to build off his T5 at Pebble Beach a year ago.

Daniel Berger — The chipping woes continue to be issue, so be weary, but there has been no event where Berger has been better in his career. He’s never failed to clinch a Top 10 in his three starts at the Pro-Am (1st, T5, T10) and enters off a week in Phoenix where his ball striking flirted with those the top of the leaderboard. Plus, he’s averaging close to +1.00 SG:PUTT/Round at Pebble Beach GL. Additionally, Berger’s four career wins have all come at courses with green sized 5,000 Sq. Feet and under (2 at Southwind, 1 at Colonial, 1 at Pebble).

Read the full article here