With free agency beginning to die down, the hockey world was left anticipating what the Dallas Stars might do to address their cap situation, as they were more than $1.5 million over the cap limit going into Thursday.
That all changed on Thursday, as the Stars traded defenseman Matt Dumba – along with a 2028 second-round pick – to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for defenseman Vladislav Kolyachonok. Dumba, 30, had one year remaining on a contract that pays him $3.75 million annually, so sending him to Pittsburgh gave the Stars the cap relief they needed to be compliant.
As for Pittsburgh, the acquisition of Dumba brings about some questions that may need to be addressed before the 2025-26 season starts. Combining the Dumba trade with the deal that brought defenseman Connor Clifton to Pittsburgh – in conjunction with the signings of Parker Wotherspoon and Alexander Alexeyev as well as prospects Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke knocking at the door – there has been a bit of a logjam created on the back end for the Penguins on both the left and the right sides.
And this is where things start to get interesting with Penguins’ top defenseman Erik Karlsson.
It is well-known at this point that Karlsson, 35, is on the trade market for the Penguins. Acquired in a blockbuster deal during the summer of 2023 from the San Jose Sharks, the three-time Norris Trophy winner has failed to help Pittsburgh get back to the playoffs in consecutive seasons, rendering the initial reasoning for the trade a moot point as the team mires itself in a rebuild.
It hasn’t been all bad for Karlsson in Pittsburgh, as he still registered 11 goals and 53 points this season for the Penguins and has been the primary driver of offense – and, really, nearly the only driver of offense – from the blue line. He has put up 22 goals and 109 points in two seasons for the Penguins, and this was after his third Norris campaign, when he had a whopping 25 goals and 101 points with the San Jose Sharks in 2022-23.
Anyone who expected that much from Karlsson in Pittsburgh was probably expecting too much. However, his level of production, oftentimes, hasn’t outweighed his mistakes, especially on a team like the Penguins that lacks defensive structure as it is. At the end of the day, Pittsburgh is not a particularly good hockey team right now, and a high-ceiling, low-floor player like Karlsson is probably not what they need right now for the stage they’re in.
So, when the Penguins traded for Dumba, they created an even bigger logjam on the right side than they had previously. The right side of their blue line – including Karlsson – now occupies $23.18 million of combined cap space, and it features four players who have pretty much played full-time NHL minutes for the past several seasons.
With eight defensemen already rostered – not including Pickering, Brunicke, and roster hopeful Jack St. Ivany – there are too many defensemen for too little spots. If the Penguins truly want to put an emphasis on development – and, even, on the hope that they can flip Dumba and/or Clifton at the deadline for picks – keeping four full-time NHL defensemen on the right side doesn’t make much sense.
Given all of the above factors, it stands to reason that the Dumba move was, perhaps, a precursor to the eventual departure of Karlsson.
Of course, a lot has to happen in order for Karlsson to actually leave Pittsburgh. He has a full no-movement clause, meaning he has full control over if and where he goes. Also, the Penguins owe him $10 million of his $11.5 million AAV for two more years, which – even with the cap rising – is a hefty contract for a contending team, likely against the cap, to take on.
In other words, there would have to be retention on any deal, and there has to be a will and a want from the player to vacate Pittsburgh in favor of another city. It has been rumored that Karlsson is willing to waive his no-movement clause to go to a contender, but part of the problem is that most contenders literally can’t afford him – even with retention.
Perhaps the Carolina Hurricanes are interested in replacing Brent Burns. Maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs are willing to send a contract to the Penguins in return so they can bolster their right side. Maybe the Ottawa Senators are interested in a reunion and will perform some gymnastics to make it happen.
And, if you’re the Penguins, this is probably the hope. But they also aren’t just going to give Karlsson away for nothing. They know the value he brings to their blue line in terms of offense and how he is capable of driving play almost entirely on his own. They’ll want fair value in return, and retention will only up the price.
If the Penguins have it their way, Karlsson will, likely, be in a different uniform to begin the 2025-26 season, and they’ve made moves – like the Dumba trade – that indicate that it’s their intended direction.
But, at the end of the day, it all comes down to what Karlsson wants. Now the Penguins – and the hockey world – await what’s next.
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Feature image credit: Talia Sprague – Imagn Images
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