Marvin Harrison Jr. had the highest ever ADP (17.0 in Yahoo drafts) for a rookie receiver last season, but he was a massive disappointment while finishing as the WR42 in fantasy points per game. Harrison undoubtedly deserves some of the blame, as he might’ve been the worst receiver in the league when it came to contested catches. He also forced just one missed tackle during 62 receptions. His rookie season certainly wasn’t bad, but Harrison unquestionably failed to live up to his lofty expectations.
However, usage and Kyler Murray were also to blame. Harrison ranked sixth in air yards but just 37th in target share (22.2%). He ranked 58th in yards per route run among wideouts, although that came while ranking 64th in catchable target rate. Despite being among the leaders in end-zone targets, Harrison was still just the WR32 in expected fantasy points per game. Murray delivered just a 51% catchable ball rate on throws 20+ air yards without pressure, which ranked 24th out of 33 qualified QBs (although the good news is Murray targeted Harrison on a whopping 45.9% of those attempts).
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More than one quarter of Harrison’s routes were “go,” which were the second most (25.9%) in the league. He was one of only five WRs with at least 50 targets to see none of them come from behind the line of scrimmage. Harrison saw 116 targets but zero screens. He was targeted just one time all season during pre-snap motion and saw the fifth most “tight coverage%.” He took 72.6% of his snaps out wide with just 27.4% in the slot, leading to fewer “layup” targets. Harrison had an 83.3% catch rate when he was the secondary, check-down or designed target.
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On throws over the middle of the field, Harrison was actually one of the most effective wide receivers in the NFL. But 75% of his (mostly unsuccessful) targets came on the perimeter, which was the league’s second-highest rate. Harrison also had massive zone/man splits — he ranked fifth in target rate and third in win rate against man coverage but didn’t get to take advantage opportunity wise, ranking 29th in routes versus man. Harrison didn’t wow separating as a rookie, but his Average Separation Score (WR32) was on par with Puka Nacua and better than Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.
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It admittedly remains to be seen whether Murray can effectively throw the ball to Harrison over the middle given the QB’s height restrictions, but Arizona needs to give them more chances (and move MHJ to the slot more). Harrison was asked to play an important role for the Cardinals as a rookie (that wasn’t conducive for fantasy points), but it’s obvious he can be far more successful if used differently in 2025.
The Cardinals expect a big jump from Harrison in Year 2, when he’s clearly added muscle. Harrison will continue to compete for targets with star tight end Trey McBride, but the Cardinals didn’t add any receivers in the draft and enter 2025 with possibly the thinnest WR room in the entire league outside of MHJ. Harrison has spent plenty of time with Murray outside the team’s facility during the offseason, working out together to make sure their chemistry is unmatched.
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Moreover, Arizona plays just four games outdoors this season, and the Cardinals saw their pass rate over expectation rise from -5.1% over the first 10 weeks to +6.7% over their final seven games last season. That’s a significant shift in offensive style that could lead to big things if it holds in 2025. Arizona also has a friendly defensive projected schedule, including a home matchup versus the Falcons and a possible shootout in Cincinnati during fantasy championship weeks.
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Harrison is the WR21 in early “expert consensus ranks,” curiously behind DJ Moore. Harrison’s ADP will be much cheaper this season, when he’s likely to be a better player and used far more effectively than his rookie campaign. Harrison saw his targets per game jump 28% over the final six games last season. He was a special prospect who was drafted wildly early both by the Cardinals (while skipping the combine and pro day) and fantasy managers last year for a reason.
Draft Harrison in 2025.
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