Who will prevail in this battle of NASCAR giants?

Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) was established as All-Star Racing in 1984, while Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) joined NASCAR for the first time in 1992.

Since then, HMS has won 320 races and JGR has won 227, making them the two of the three winningest teams in Cup Series history.

They’ve also combined to win 19 of the last 30 Cup titles, with Hendrick collecting 14 championships and Gibbs five. However, neither team has earned a crown since the Next Gen era began in 2022, thanks to the three-year reign of Team Penske. This year, Team Penske isn’t in the final.

“Biggest mistake I made in racing was helping Joe Gibbs,” team boss Rick Hendrick recently joked

It’s true, Hendrick and Gibbs’ Next Gen losing streak will soon end: each team has two drivers in the Championship 4. The next question — which driver will win — is much more complicated.

JGR has Denny Hamlin, the most successful racer in NASCAR Cup history without a title, as well as Chase Briscoe, who is in his very first year with the team.

Hendrick has the only former champion in the fight with Kyle Larson, who won it all in 2021. They also have William Byron, who has won the last two Daytona 500s and has made the final four for the third consecutive year.

Who is stronger at Phoenix?

Phoenix Raceway President Latasha Causey (center) with Championship 4 drivers (from left to right) Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

These are all heavy hitters, but who will prevail on Sunday? While Phoenix has been Penske’s playground, all of the contenders have had recent success there as well. Looking only at the Next Gen era, Hendrick has one win, courtesy of Byron in the spring of 2023. JGR has two wins, both via Christopher Bell, who won in the spring of 2024 and 2025. Briscoe also won a Next Gen race at Phoenix, but that came with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2022.

Looking at the most recent race, won by Bell, Hamlin finished an incredibly close second. It was nearly a photo finish between the teammates, with Larson finishing right behind them in third. Byron was sixth, while Briscoe crashed out of the event. The two organizations seemed fairly equal in that race, but perhaps Gibbs had a slight edge. The JGR squad led 108 laps and HMS cars led 83 of the 312 run. Bell and Byron made up the lion’s share of that.

As for just the drivers at Phoenix over the years, Hamlin is obviously the most experienced one with 40 starts, and he’s the only one with multiple wins. However, all four of them have won at the Cup level in Phoenix, and Hamlin hasn’t won since 2019.

Based on average finish, three of these drivers are remarkably close. Hamlin enters the weekend with an average finish of 10.6, Larson a 10.7, and Byron at a 10.8! The more one searches for an advantage, the more it seems like we have a true level playing field here between both drivers and equipment.

What the owners have to say about each other

Rick Hendrick, owner of Hendrick Motorsports

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Speaking on the matchup earlier this week, ‘Coach’ Joe Gibbs said: “It’s going to be a huge deal. I think our fans love that. It’s the best in the world competing in one race. It should be really exciting.”

Gibbs later aded: “I would prefer to go against somebody that’s not very good (smiling). The problem is that doesn’t happen in NASCAR. So, to get to the Final 4 is just so hard. So now we got one race. We know what we’re up against, somebody that’s really, really good. Two cars in there for them. Two for us.

“Hopefully this will be good for the fans and everybody and the excitement. Probably won’t be good for me. I’ll be so nervous and uptight about it (smiling). To get to the Final 4 is a thrill, and we’re thrilled to be in it. It’s great for our sponsors and our entire organization. You got to give Rick and them just all the credit in the world.”

Joe Gibbs

Photo by: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images

Ironically, Mr. H. helped Gibbs to get into the sport in the first place, leasing engines to the team in the early 90s.

“Biggest mistake I made in racing was helping Joe Gibbs,” joked Hendrick during his recent media availability. He also spoke about the respect between these two legendary car owners.

“No, Joe, I can’t believe it, but Joe has been kind of one of my idols. I love the Redskins. When I got a call from him, and I went up to camp, and then I went to a game when they were playing the Falcons. I think it was the Playoffs. It was cold, and I got off the tram. I started toward the field, and the bottom came off of my boot. I had one of these I guess mountain boots I hadn’t had on in a while. So the bottom came off.

“I go down on the field, and I’m standing in water. It’s freezing and sleeting, and I got no shoes on. I mean, I got the bottoms come off both of my boots. There’s Joe Gibbs up there. I’m like, Should I go up and try to ask him can he get me a pair of shoes or something (laughter)? After, when I told him, he said, ‘you should have said something.’ I said, ‘man, all those bodyguards around you, if I walked up to you, I probably would have been put in jail.’

“Joe and I have had some good times. We’ve had some sad times together. There’s nobody I respect any more than I do Joe Gibbs and the great organization he’s put together. I mean, I admire the man for his strength, what he’s gone through.”

The ‘tremendous respect’ and kinship Hendrick talks about goes way beyond the race track as well, as they’ve both experienced similar tragedies … Rick lost his only son Ricky in a 2004 plane crash, while both of Joe’s sons died before the age of 50.

And now, these constant rivals, good friends, and titans of the sport will come together for a 2 vs. 2 showdown at Phoenix Raceway. Whether it ends up being JGR’s sixth or HMS’ 15th, they will have certainly earned it with the caliber of their competition this weekend.