Where the Super Bowl will be won and lost

In terms of the pre-season betting odds this is the most unlikely Super Bowl match-up for years, but there’s no denying the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots deserve to be here.

The pair have shown different strengths and weaknesses but throughout an unpredictable season they have had long winning streaks and shown enviable consistency.

The Seahawks are the 4.5-point favourites in Santa Clara but in terms of the numbers there is not much between them at all, so expect this one to be a close call.

It could come down to a play here, a play call there and perhaps the finest of margins making the biggest of differences – Super Bowl’s can by won and lost in the blink of an eye.

So let’s see how the two sides match-up, what the key battles will be and exactly where Super Bowl 60 will be decided.

Tale of the tape: How the sides compare

Sam Darnold and Drake Maye will both feels the pressure when they meet in the Super Bowl [Getty Images]

Both sides finished 14-3, won eight games on the road and developed a serious winning habit.

The Patriots lost their three games by a combined 19 points and the Seahawks lost theirs by just nine in total, so they are both tough to beat.

This is the first Super Bowl meeting between two teams that finished with both top four scoring offences and scoring defences, showing how well rounded they are.

New England scored just seven points more than Seattle as they finished second and third on offence, while the Seahawks had the best scoring defence in the league.

The Pats locked it down in the post-season though. Despite scoring the fewest points ever in three play-off games (54) the defence allowed just 26 points, the second-fewest ever, to fight into the Super Bowl.

Seattle blew away the 49ers then won a shootout with the Rams, and with the better skill position players and quick-strike offence they should have the firepower to win another.

The Pats will be looking for a tense, tight defensive scuffle in a bid to win a record seventh Lombardi Trophy.

The game managers: Quarterbacks key to success

The term ‘game manager’ has become an insult to modern quarterbacks but that’s exactly what you need to win a Super Bowl – especially this Super Bowl with two defences who have conceded an average of just over 17 points per game this season.

Drake Maye is bidding to become the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and has had a surgical sophomore season setting records for accuracy even Tom Brady could not match.

Sam Darnold’s ultimate redemption story could take him from worst to first but even after a super showing to get Seattle here, there are still some doubters around.

So both will have to handle the pressure of the huge occasion and also of two opposing defences that will be hunting them down. How they deal with that will be key.

Maye’s antidote will be his running ability. Excluding kneeldowns he has gained 6.13 yards per carry this season and with 12 of his 16 play-off runs going for a touchdown or first down he’s being used in those vital moments.

Seattle need to find a way to bottle him up.

Darnold’s not a runner but has the league’s top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to throw to in times of stress and his arm talent is now undeniable. So is his temperament after nine game-winning drives in the past two seasons.

Neither will have felt anything like this pressure though and with solid defences behind them there is no immediate need to play the hero. Whoever manages the game better will hoist the Lombardi.

The game changer: Avoid turnovers at all costs

Teams that have won the turnover battle in the Super Bowl have a 40-7 record. Enough said?

In a post-season littered with close games turnovers proved crucial – both teams had vital takeaways to win their Championship games and they were first and second in turnover differential in the play-offs.

Darnold struggled all season in this area, leading the league with 20 turnovers, and despite Seattle having zero in the play-offs that will be an area the Patriots hope to exploit.

By contrast, Drake Maye has struggled in the play-offs with a case of the fumbles – six of them in fact, losing three, after just eight all regular season.

Coaches will be preaching ball security to everyone all week.

The coaches: Will experience count?

Speaking of coaches, they can make or break a game from the sideline. Just ask Pete Carroll from this very fixture 11 years ago with that infamous decision to throw on the one-yard line costing Seattle the Super Bowl against the Patriots.

Both head coaches have been incredible this season – Mike Macdonald is a defensive genius having now built a top defence at previous side Baltimore and in Seattle.

He’s young and one worry is that with him still calling the defensive plays it all may be a bit much in his first Super Bowl.

Mike Vrabel can become the first man to win a Super Bowl as head coach and player with the same team, and he could have an ace up his sleeve with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

A huge success with Tom Brady, this will be a 10th Super Bowl as a coach for McDaniels. In the hardest game to keep your head could that experience be the difference?

The game wreckers: Super Bowls won in the trenches

Milton Williams signed the biggest contract in Patriots history last summer [Getty Images]

New England Patriots defensive tackle Milton Williams ahead of a game in the NFL — Milton Williams signed the biggest contract in Patriots history last summer [Getty Images]

The defensive front seven are the wrecking crews of the NFL, tasked with, among other things, making life as uncomfortable as possible for opposing quarterbacks.

Both sides excel here with terrific units and we’ve seen before how dominance here can decide the outcome of a Super Bowl.

Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson combined for 16 regular season sacks for New England, thanks to defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Milton Williams bringing constant interior pressure, collapsing pockets at will.

The Patriots made Williams the highest paid player in team history with a $104m deal in free agency last year, following a dominant Super Bowl display for the Eagles against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs.

If he replicates that here then Darnold is in trouble.

It’s Seattle, though, who could hold the advantage here as they are bringing a four-headed monster of Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, Byron Murphy and DeMarcus Lawrence who have combined for 30 sacks this season.

Lawrence, who left Dallas to win a Super Bowl, has had a sack and forced fumble in both play-off games so far and has been particularly impressive, but it’s the danger right across the Seahawks defensive front that gives them the edge.

As the Patriots will make history by starting two rookies on their offensive line in Will Campbell and Jared Wilson – with left tackle Campbell, the man charged with protecting Maye’s blindside, having some rookie struggles.

Maye has been sacked 15 times in the play-offs, the record is 19, and if the two rookies fail to protect him again then it could get ugly – think Patrick Mahomes’ two Super Bowl defeats by the Eagles and Buccaneers.

Skill players scoring touchdowns make the headlines, but Super Bowls are won and lost in the trenches – and that battle on Maye’s blindside could just decide the whole argument.

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