USC vs. Illinois prediction, odds, line, time: 2025 college football Week 5 picks by proven model

The No. 21 USC Trojans will face their stiffest test of the season so far when they take on the No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini in a key Big Ten Conference matchup on Saturday. USC is coming off a 45-31 win over Michigan State, while Illinois will look to rebound from a 63-10 loss at Indiana in Week 4. The Trojans (4-0, 2-0 Big Ten), who tied for ninth in the conference at 4-5 and were 7-6 overall in 2024, are 2-4 on the road since the start of last season. The Fighting Illini (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten), who tied for fifth at 6-3 and were 10-3 overall, are 8-1 on their home field since the start of last year.

Kickoff from Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill., is at noon ET. USC leads the all-time series 11-2, and will meet for the first time since 2007. The Trojans are 6.5-point favorites in the latest USC vs. Illinois odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 60.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any USC vs. Illinois picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and is a profitable 35-22 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on USC vs. Illinois. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for USC vs. Illinois:

Why USC can cover

Junior quarterback Jayden Maiava, who is in his second season with the Trojans, leads the USC offense. In four games, he has completed 68 of 96 passes (70.8%) for 1,223 yards and nine touchdowns with zero interceptions. In last week’s win over Michigan State, he completed 20 of 26 passes (76.9%) for 234 yards and three touchdowns. In a 59-20 win over Georgia Southern on Sept. 6, he completed 16 of 24 passes (66.7%) for 412 yards and four touchdowns.

Junior running back Waymond Jordan leads the ground attack. In four games, he has carried 57 times for 443 yards (7.8 average) and three touchdowns. In the win over Michigan State, he rushed 18 times for 157 yards (8.7 average), including a long of 40. He carried 16 times for 167 yards (10.4 average) and one touchdown in the win over Georgia Southern. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Illinois can cover

Senior quarterback Luke Altmyer is in his third year at Illinois after two seasons at Ole Miss. In four games this season, he has completed 70 of 100 passes for 855 yards and nine touchdowns with zero interceptions. In the loss at Indiana, he was 14 of 22 passes for 146 yards and one touchdown. He was 22 of 31 for 296 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-19 win at Duke on Sept. 6.

Altmyer’s top target has been senior wide receiver Hank Beatty. He has 21 receptions for 302 yards (14.4 average) and one touchdown. In the win over Duke, he caught eight passes for 128 yards, including a long of 36. He had five catches for 108 yards, including a long of 59, in a 52-3 win over Western Illinois on Aug. 29. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make USC vs. Illinois picks

SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total, projecting 68 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins USC vs. Illinois, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the USC vs. Illinois spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.