Undervalued Fantasy Basketball Picks: Players with First-Round Upside

Nine players typically get selected in the first round of every draft, and then it becomes a crapshoot. Those nine guys include Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Anthony Davis and Trae Young. That means anything can happen at the end of that opening round and the beginning of the second round, but we’ll choose the best of the rest for this piece.

Domantas Sabonis and Karl-Anthony Towns are often the next two players taken in the opening round, so we’ll omit those big men as well.

Devin Booker, PHX

(ADP: 12.8)

I’m starting to see Booker creep into the first round of some drafts, and it’s about time that everyone comes around. This perennial All-Star is in for a career-high usage rate, thanks to the Suns going into a rebuild. They’ve parted ways with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, leaving Booker as the only true playmaker on this team. He’ll play point guard next to Jalen Green after averaging a career-high 7.1 assists per game last year. His point total did dip to 25.6 points per game, but we expect Booker to get close to 30 since he’s likely looking at 35-40 minutes and over 20 shots a night. This might be a bold call, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Booker have a Houston Harden-type season with a league-leading usage rate very much in play.

James Harden, LAC

(ADP: 15.3)

Speak of the devil! We had Harden as one of our top recommendations in this same article last season, and he delivered a beautiful bounce-back campaign. The former MVP averaged 22.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 3.0 threes per game. Most importantly, Harden played 79 games last year and has played at least 65 games in all but two years throughout his 16-year career. All the players in the Top 30 post superstar statistics, but the reliability of a 70-game season can’t be overlooked from a fantasy perspective. Drafting a 36-year-old always feels risky in the first round, but the consistency speaks for itself. The only real concern is the depth of this roster, but that could lead to Harden creeping back to double-digit assists like we’ve seen throughout most of his career.

Kevin Durant, HOU

(ADP: 19.0)

There simply aren’t many players as special as KD. This 15-time All-Star is entering his first season with the Houston Rockets and looks poised for another monster season. In a “down” 2024-25 campaign, Durant averaged 26.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.6 threes per game. He also shot 53 percent from the field, 43 percent from three-point range and 84 percent from the free-throw line. Having an all-around stat line like that is one thing, but adding elite shooting is truly ridiculous. What’s even more absurd is that this stat line has been the norm since 2008, so why would we expect anything different this season? The injury question marks, aging and fresh team dynamics are obviously in play, but KD will always be a top-25 player in fantasy until he retires.

Stephen Curry, GSW

(ADP: 17.1)

It’s funny that we have these three aging superstars in here, but it’s telling of how many people overlook these guys in drafts. We actually had Harden, Durant and Curry in the same piece last season! Everyone wants the shiny new toys or the mystery box, but these veterans are as safe as it gets. The aging and injuries are the only real concerns with a superstar like Curry, but he still averaged 24.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.1 steals and 4.4 threes per game last year. Curry shot 45 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point range and 93 percent from the free-throw line as well. That sort of shooting is why Curry has been a top-10 player for nearly two decades, and he should remain the focal point of this Warriors offense. We’re also encouraged that Curry has played at least 63 games in four of the last five years, and the addition of Jimmy Butler should help open things up for this offense while making Golden State more competitive.

Amen Thompson, HOU

(ADP: 25.5)

We’ve presented some unmistakable options to enter the opening round, but let’s get one youngster in here that’s a bit outside the norm. I’m not advocating that Thompson should be selected in the first round this season, but he seems like one of the most likely guys to enter that realm next year. This 22-year-old showcased an elite fantasy resume in his sophomore season, averaging 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. Having defensive numbers like those is nearly impossible to find, and this kid is only scratching the surface of what he could become. Thompson took over ball-handling duties at times in the second half of last season and could be the primary point guard with Fred VanVleet out for the year. We could see Thompson’s scoring approach 20 points per game while handing out 5-6 assists a night. Adding that nearly double-digit rebound total and 2.7 stocks per game could have Thompson looking like a top-10 player this season.

Other Players in Consideration:

Tyrese Maxey, PHI

PHI

(ADP: 19.9)

Alperen Sengun, HOU