Turning Point: What will the stretch run to the NASCAR Playoffs bring?

Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway in the rearview and the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (Sun., 6 p.m. ET, Prime Video) up next.

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1. Will Hendrick maintain 2025 pace in stretch run to NASCAR Playoffs?

Hendrick Motorsports has had a stranglehold on the front of the field through the first portion of the 2025 season. Will it last? Will any other team find its equal share of dominance?

Hendrick Motorsports has “only” won four of the season‘s first dozen points races. A driver for a different team won three straight at one point (and the All-Star Race!) and yet it feels Hendrick’s championship organization is smothering the field.

All four drivers in the stable seem to have established a firm top-10 residency while compiling a lap-leading pace not seen in decades. There appear to be no signs of slowing, either, with the only question, really, being if the four-car powerhouse will manage to keep it up the rest of the way.

The numbers are hard to ignore and strongly indicate that it will.

Hendrick has led 41.6% of all laps raced this season. Think about that for a second — nearly every other lap, every week, the race has been led by Alex Bowman, William Byron, Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson. It‘s the team‘s highest percentage through 12 races since 1996 (44.1%), when it featured a three-driver lineup consisting of two championship-winning future Hall of Famers along with one of the most respected drivers in the sport’s history.

Larson? That force of nature driving the No. 5 car? He’s led nearly a quarter of the 2025 laps run himself (24.5%), the most any single driver has led since Kevin Harvick paced 26.4% of the season‘s first 12 races in 2015.

They‘re not just getting to the front, though; they‘re staying there. The foursome has already racked up 29 top-10 finishes — a team record through 12 races — and at least one of them has landed in the top five in every single event. For context, no other team has had a car finish in the top 10 in every race.

The thing is, though … nobody has been this dominant, for this long, within the Next Gen era. Hendrick is Hendrick, of course, and any sort of precipitous drop-off should not be expected; but is this current pace sustainable? While the numbers are gaudy, the rest of the field isn‘t exactly rolling over for them.

Team Penske, after what‘s becoming an annual sluggish start (that tends to finish with a Bill France Cup, mind you), has rattled off four top-five finishes and two wins in the last three races. Joe Gibbs Racing, while quieter on the 1.5-milers this year than we‘re used to, is always lurking and has seen its share of dominance this season as well, and is riding the momentum of a raucous All-Star Race victory via Christopher Bell. Those two teams have been, and will likely continue to be, the biggest hurdles for Hendrick, but it‘s not all sunshine for the sport‘s other past heavyweights.

Richard Childress Racing is having arguably its slowest start in years, and 23XI Racing is searching for consistency. Even playoff regulars like RFK Racing‘s Brad Keselowski are feeling the heat and running out of time to cool the temp; the 2012 champ has had a miserable start, with three straight DNFs and not a single top 10 through the first 12 races. The other two RFK drivers, Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece, have also seen how quickly things can unravel; each finds themselves in a points deficit after technical issues with their cars resulted in penalties in separate weeks after looking like playoff contenders. (Note: RFK is appealing the penalty to Buescher‘s No. 17 Ford.)

There‘s plenty of racing left, however. The likelihood of none of those teams figuring it out is, well, not likely at all.

History tells us that this level of control is rare, even for NASCAR‘s winningest team in history, and rarely lasts all the way to Phoenix. The grind of the summer, the pressure of the playoff trim-down and an In-Season Challenge that could force a degree of chaos make the next few months feel like anybody‘s game, honestly.

Hendrick‘s numbers are historic, but the road ahead is littered with potential spoilers and hungry rivals.

NASCAR‘s longest night is nearly here, and if history is any guide, the Coca-Cola 600 is about to deliver another unforgettable chapter.

Charlotte Motor Speedway‘s annual Memorial Day Weekend crown jewel isn‘t just a test of speed or stamina; it‘s a race that always seems to conjure up the unexpected, the dramatic and, at times, the downright improbable.

Though it‘s been the case in past decades with certain teams dominating for years at a time, recent seasons have proven that the 600 is nobody‘s personal playground anymore. In fact, the last eight runnings of this race have each been won by a different driver, with only Martin Truex Jr. — now retired — managing to double up in the last 13 years. Dominance does matter, as five of the last seven winners have also led the most laps, but it‘s far from a guarantee that results in a trip to Victory Lane. That said, the polesitter has converted on a victory twice in the last three runnings of the race that had qualifying, indicating that starting up front does tend to help.

One thing the Coca-Cola 600 is famous for, among the many, is breaking droughts. With several big-name drivers sporting notable winless streaks, if one of them (perhaps one of the handful of former champions in desperate need of a win) is able to make the magic happen, this would certainly qualify as a “moment.”

Seven times a driver has snapped a winless streak of 30 or more races in this event, most recently Ryan Blaney in 2023 to propel his championship run, and this race has a knack for serving as a launching pad. In the playoff era, it‘s even provided hope for those on the outside looking in: Both Denny Hamlin (2022) and Austin Dillon (2017) won the 600 while sitting below the playoff elimination line, proving that a single night in Charlotte can rewrite an entire season.

So who‘s poised to seize the moment in 2025? Well, unfortunately for the field, it does appear to shape up on paper as one that heavily favors Hendrick drivers. Larson owns a sparkling 3.75 average on intermediate tracks this year and, really, any of the four could walk out of Charlotte Motor Speedway and sleep in their own bed next to a Coca-Cola 600 trophy. (Though Larson’s the only one that could collect two trophies that day.)

Byron, in particular, is the name to circle. He‘s finished fourth or better in three of the last four Coca-Cola 600s and was runner-up a year ago. He‘s logged top 10s in 10 of his last 14 races on 1.5-mile tracks and has led laps in five straight Charlotte oval events. The two-time defending Daytona 500 winner has been consistently excellent the entire year and should break through for win No. 2 of the season sooner rather than later, and quite possibly on Sunday.

Despite the team‘s lack of recent consistency, though, 23XI Racing‘s Tyler Reddick is another driver to watch; he‘s finished in the top 10 in all five of his Coke 600 starts, with an average finish of 6.4 to lead all active drivers. Consistency like that is rare in a race this grueling.

But don‘t overlook the sleepers. Hyak Motorsports driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has quietly put together a strong Charlotte resume, finishing seventh in two of the last three Coca-Cola 600s and notching top 15s in seven of his last nine starts there. He‘s also lurking in the top 15 in the standings and could turn the playoff picture on its head if he were able to secure his spot Sunday night.

On the flip side, some big names have struggled to solve the 600 puzzle. 23XI‘s Bubba Wallace has just one top 10 in eight Charlotte oval starts and has been hampered by penalties in nearly every attempt. Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain‘s average finish in this race is a distant 23rd, with only one result better than 15th, but he‘s also been closing in on a win lately — will he buck the trend of his spotty past here?

Drivers‘ endurance and teams‘ ability to adapt as conditions change will certainly test the field this weekend, particularly given the last full running of the race was two years ago. It‘s a race where strategy, patience and a little bit of luck are as important as raw speed and, time and again, it‘s been the site of dramatic finishes, first-time winners and season-defining moments.

As the engines fire and the laps begin to mount, fans and teams alike should savor every minute, because at the Coca-Cola 600, anything can — and often does — happen.

Drink it in, everyone. The next great NASCAR memory is just 600 miles away.

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