All series long, Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle has described the task of slowing the Oklahoma City Thunder — a heavy betting favorite from the start of the 2025 NBA Finals — as a “daunting” one.
“The magnitude of the challenge with Oklahoma City is daunting because of the kind of year they had and how great they are,” he said between Games 3 and 4. “They’re historically great in so many different areas, and they got the MVP. It’s hard. It takes nothing less than everything we possibly have together.”
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At that point, when his Pacers led the Finals, 2-1, Carlisle said the series felt more like six games than three, and now that it is headed to a Game 6, well, we have seen what the coach meant by “daunting.”
Following two straight wins — Friday’s in Indiana and Monday’s in OKC — the Thunder lead the Finals, 3-2, and again it feels worse. It is the first time the Pacers have lost consecutive games and the first time they have trailed a series this postseason. The season is teetering on the edge of its end, and Indy needs two wins to keep from falling. Only, the Thunder have lost two straight games just twice this season — once in November, when the season had just started, and once in April, when they had clinched their No. 1 seed.
Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combined for 71 points in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)
(NBAE via Getty Images)
The Thunder, after all, are one of seven 68-win teams ever, and they owned the second-highest net rating in NBA history during the regular season. They are a juggernaut, even more ferocious on the defensive end than they are offensively, or at least we thought they were — until they fell behind in this series.
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Give the Pacers credit. They have proven they belong on the same stage as the Thunder, and then some. They are far better than their fourth seed, and even in Monday’s Game 5 loss they were within two points with 8:30 left in the fourth quarter. After a 10-15 start, Indiana closed the regular season with a 40-17 record and a +4.9 net rating, both among the NBA’s elite. They were always far better than their standing, and yet they still paled in comparison to OKC’s record (49-9) and net rating (+13.0) over that same span.
There was always a chance the Thunder — a more talented team by most everyone’s account — would figure out the Pacers, extinguishing them in short order. It has taken longer than just about anyone anticipated, but we may have reached that point, or at least it feels that way. It feels like it will take nothing less than everything the Pacers possibly have together for Indy to force a Game 7, even as hosts of Thursday’s Game 6.
In Monday’s Game 5 win, Oklahoma City played with a force it had not displayed in either of its losses in the series. The Thunder registered 20 paint touches, their most since a Game 2 blowout of Indiana, mostly because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams — OKC’s two best players — finally got going downhill as often as possible, combining for 34 drives, or almost as many as all of the Pacers combined.
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It sounds simple: Get your two best players going toward the rim and into the paint as much as you can. But against the Pacers, whose Andrew Nembhard has guarded Gilgeous-Alexander as well as anyone this season, it has not been so easy. So Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault found ways to make it easier.
First, Oklahoma City reinserted Isaiah Hartenstein, who Daigneault has called the best screen-setter he has ever coached, into the starting lineup. He is a brick wall, and not even Nembhard can fight through it. And because the Pacers’ defense is picking up Gilgeous-Alexander so far from the basket, Hartenstein can set his screens 30 feet from the rim, giving SGA a full head of steam to beat the switch and create 4-on-3 opportunities against a defense without its rim protector, who is often stuck defending Hartenstein.
Look how far from the basket Hartenstein sets his screen and how much space SGA has to operate:
In another instance, Gilgeous-Alexander took the entire defense with him to the paint’s edges, leaving shooters open everywhere, and Cason Wallace could take his time stepping into a wide-open 3-pointer:
This is the value of the MVP. Switch whoever onto him, and Gilgeous-Alexander can beat him off the dribble. Shift multiple defenders his way, and he will find the open man. It is as simple as basketball gets.
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Daigneault has made it even simpler, calling for more two-man actions between his two best players, especially to close out games. And the Thunder have closed out Games 4 and 5 as cleanly as possible. When Williams screens for SGA, or the reverse, either creates a downhill advantage. More importantly, so much of the defense’s attention has to be paid to both players that the floor opens for everyone else.
It helped, of course, that OKC forced 23 turnovers, creating more driving opportunities in transition, before Indiana’s defense could ever get set. A quarter of the Thunder’s points came off those turnovers.
“Nobody is asking about turnovers,” noted Carlisle. “We had 23 turnovers for 32 points. That’s the game.”
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It also helped that Oklahoma City, which entered Monday’s game 13th among 16 playoff teams in 3-point efficiency, finally started making its shots. The team ranked top-10 in both attempts and efficiency during the regular season. After making just 3-of-17 attempts in their Game 4 victory, the Thunder connected on 14 of their 32 attempts in a more lopsided Game 5 win. Maybe a little home cooking was all they needed.
Because the Thunder have enjoyed such success leaning into the simplest of adjustments — Hartenstein as a screen-setter and a two-man combo of their best players — while finding themselves again as both a turnover-happy defense and a quality shooting team, they feel inevitable at this point. Just do what they do best, and water will find its level above Indiana’s, especially if Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton is hurt.
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What is even scarier: The Thunder truly believe they can play even better.
“It wasn’t a perfect game at all,” said Daigneault. “There’s a lot of room for growth, but our improvement from Game 4 to Game 5 was critical. We’re gonna need a similar approach. We have to take the humility to understand there’s still a lot we can get better at if we want to go on the road and win Game 6.”
To some that may sound like coach-speak. But, like Carlisle’s “daunting” comments, it sure rings true.
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