Things Are About to Get Interesting

We are just days away from what could be the most consequential offseason since 2022, which saw us hire Kevin O’Connell. The decisions made over the next few weeks could unlock a wide range of possibilities. A 10 to 12-win season, along with at least one playoff victory, would get us back on the right track after last year’s misstep. Anything less might mean new leadership on the sidelines in 2027. Playoff success is essential.

I don’t believe that’s an exaggeration. Nothing in the Wilf family’s ownership history contradicts that statement. Ask Brad Childress, who didn’t finish the 2010 season after winning back-to-back division titles and reaching an NFC Championship game. Or Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who managed a 43-25 record, tying with the 49ers and Ravens for the fifth-best regular-season record in the NFL during his tenure.

With the legal tampering period here and the start of the new league year coming on Wednesday, this Vikings fan has thoughts.

McCARTHY IS OFFICIALLY ON NOTICE (AND I HATE IT)

I can’t overstate how J.J. McCarthy’s knee injury during that impressive 2024 preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders disrupted everything and may have altered the course of Vikings history.

Even if he didn’t win the job over Sam Darnold and nothing changed on paper during that impressive 14-3 season, being relegated to the film room and team meetings had significant effects. He missed a season’s worth of practice reps, along with the chance for KOC and Josh McCown to identify and correct the problematic mechanics that quickly became apparent at the start of last season.

Practice reps matter, and that’s why many coaches follow the strict rule during the season: “don’t practice, don’t play.” But they are even more crucial for quarterbacks. And even more so for young quarterbacks. Film study is important, of course, but it cannot replace seeing and experiencing it firsthand on the field, whether it’s practice or not.

Despite this, McCarthy finished strong. In what amounted to three full games since Week 14, he completed 64% of his passes for 703 yards (8.4 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, along with 61 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Digging deeper, this ranked 5th in EPA per play, 3rd in success rate, 2nd in big-time throw percentage, and 6th in EPA+CPOE composite.

None of that seems to matter now. KOC is probably coaching for his job and, as humans tend to do, he’ll be tempted to choose the path of least risk and resistance. Unfortunately, a lot needs to happen between now and September for McCarthy to be that option. His biggest supporter, KAM, has now returned to the San Francisco 49ers. The roster is Super Bowl-caliber. Brian Flores is back. Maybe the real solution will be a genuine QB competition with a Mac Jones-type brought in and no one else. However, the vibe and rumors have shifted away from that.

All I know is this: I’m a huge fan of J.J. McCarthy and believe he’s still our QBOTF. Giving up after 10 starts would be incredibly misguided. I hate it with the intensity of a thousand suns. And if he goes on to be a great quarterback for another team and we’re back to square one in five years with no Super Bowl appearances, it could break a large part of the long-time fanbase. That could be the final straw for those whose scars go back several decades. How much suffering can the human spirit endure? The Vikings seem to exist just to answer that question.

That leads me to…

STARS ALIGNING FOR KYLER MURRAY

A viral clip of ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler confirmed that the Kyler Murray-to-the-Vikings rumors not only had legs but a strong enough foundation to win powerlifting events across continents.

As I write this, the Vikings’ odds to land the former Heisman Trophy winner and #1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft have shifted from -110 to -295 favorites. The New York Jets are next at +350. People expect this to happen.

To be honest, I didn’t know much about Murray beyond the basics, since he played for an underwhelming franchise that rarely appeared on primetime or in the popular Sunday afternoon late window. And that picture wasn’t exactly great: a 38-48-1 overall record, and 0-1 in the playoffs with a poor performance.

We’ve faced him three times, with the Vikings winning 2-1. It should have been 3-0 if Greg Joseph had made a37-yarder as the clock hit zero in Week 2 of 2021. In those games, Murray was… okay: 72.8% completion for 986 yards (7.9 YPA), 7 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and he was sacked eight times. He also added 18 rushes for 115 yards on the ground.

The DN’s Warren Ludford did his usual outstanding job breaking down Murray’s career and the potential benefits, challenges, and possibilities within KOC’s offense. I took a deeper dive to learn more about Murray’s history in Arizona, and the numbers welcomed some optimism. His career stats and advanced analytics exceeded my expectations. I also found out that the Cardinals were 5-25 in games where Murray didn’t start. Even so, if an inept franchise decides to eat a $54.7 million dead cap hit to move on with no solid long-term backup plan, that’s not ideal either.

Ultimately, Kyler Murray’s potential on a veteran minimum deal with KOC, Flores, and a Super Bowl-ready team is starting to resemble an offer from Vito Corleone, courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals.

QUICK HITS

Jones, Hargrave, and Allen are gone. I fully expected Aaron Jones and one of either Javon Hargrave or Jonathan Allen to be cap casualties, but all three were a bit surprising. Jalen Redmond looks like a future star, and I like LDR and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, but the defensive line depth is far too shaky for my liking. This could force Rob Brzezinski’s hand with the limited cap space he’ll have this offseason or push the need firmly onto the first and second rounds of the upcoming draft for cornerbacks and safeties.

Vikings Are Cap Compliant With Some Money to Spend. As I mentioned earlier, the Vikings’ cap situation was less-than-ideal but far from the disaster some described it as. The NFL salary cap increased by $22 million per team this year. According to Over the Cap, the Vikings ranked fifth in the NFL for their ability to free up cap space through simple restructures of existing deals. And, unsurprisingly, they did just that. Over $40 million was freed up by reworking deals for Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Byron Murphy, Jr., and T.J. Hockenson. In addition to the $25 million saved from moves involving Jones, Hargrave, and Allen, the Vikings now appear to be about $30 million under the cap. I expect this number could rise in the coming days, as Brian O’Neill might be extended to free up more immediate space.

Jonathan Greenard Might Be Traded. To quote Hall & Oates: “I can’t go for that, no (No). No can do.” I want nothing to do with this. You can never have enough pass rushers; Dallas Turner is on his rookie deal, and Andrew Van Ginkel has battled persistent neck issues. I’m a huge fan of Greenard. He always seems to be around the ball carrier and causing havoc on every play. His playmaking ability jumps off the screen. The lack of sacks (3.0) during an injury-shortened season was an anomaly. He’s 28 and definitely in his prime. If someone makes an incredible offer, including a first-round pick, I get it. Maxx Crosby just got two first-rounders from the Baltimore Ravens. The numbers would support it, even after a tough year in 2025. Since 2023, Greenard has 4.5 fewer sacks (32 vs. 27.5) and 15 fewer QB hits in two fewer starts than Crosby. And I saw this:

I had noted that, with the ongoing growth in the pass-rush market, the Greenard contract would become an issue sooner rather than later. We’re now at that point. Let’s hope the two sides can work something out. It’s not looking particularly good at the moment.

Best wishes to Ryan Kelly. In what wasn’t a surprise, center Ryan Kelly announced his retirement after an outstanding 10-year NFL career that saw him earn Pro Bowl honors four times, along with second-team All-Pro honors in 2020. Yeah, I’d say he lived up to his first-round expectations. I wish Ryan Kelly and his entire family all the best as they start this new chapter in their lives.

With that, we officially begin the 2026 offseason. Buckle up and secure your space on the Viking longship, folks. We’re about to sail into some unpredictable waters.

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