The Reds still have a Noelvi Marte problem

It’s impossible to land on just one definition of the word ‘success’ in anything, let alone in the world of sports. Success as a concept to the Boston Celtics and New York Yankees is a vastly different bird than success to, say, the Cleveland Browns or Colorado Rockies.

Success to the Cincinnati Reds, at least as the franchise has devolved over the last trio of decades, has limped to meaning just slightly more than not being terrible.

You’ve begun to remember specific seasons and specific rosters who simply finished with a winning record. You recall each and every player brought in on a waiver claim or non-roster deal who actually netted the team more than 0.0 WAR. You don’t have to remind yourselves that Buster Posey’s grand slam and Pirates fans abrasively chanting ‘Cue-to, Cue-to’ were actually the good times of the last 30 years, the times this club dared participate in league-sponsored postseason activity before hibernating again for the winter.

If that run of form continues any longer, we’re going to begin to remember the 2025 Reds the way we recall 2013, 2012, 2010, 1995. They did make the playoffs in a full 162 game season, after all, even if they snuck into a superexpanded megaplayoff bracket with a barely .500 record (and were summarily dismissed immediately). The 2025 Reds made the playoffs, and around these parts that’s damn near tattoo-worthy. As the cobwebs envelope those 2025 memories, it will be hard for anyone to forget the most essential plays that allowed them to sneak into the postseason, since every single one of them mattered when the season’s final day came down to the slimmest of margins in the standings.

The one that stands out most, I think, is Noelvi Marte robbing Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds of a 9th inning homer at home in GABP, bailing out closer Emilio Pagán (who’d left a meatball over the plate to the Pirates lone decent hitter with the game on the line). It preserved a 2-1 victory and moved the Reds to 81-78 on the season with just a series left to play – that’s the bottom line of it – but it also seemed to somewhat validate the odd series of moves the Reds had made in the run-up to that moment.

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Marte, of course, came to the Reds in the 2022 blockbuster that saw Luis Castillo head the other way to the Seattle Mariners. He was a shortstop then, a bat-first guy with elite athleticism who seemed to be just about as can’t-miss as they come. His defensive issues moved him to 3B shortly after arriving in the Cincinnati system, however, at the time a move generally considered to have been made thanks to the presence of each of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and fellow former Mariner Edwin Arroyo at short. His bat then carried him through to the muddled mess that was the hot corner situation at the big league level in late 2023 only for an 80-game PED suspension to torpedohis 2024 season entirely.

Then came 2025, a year where his bat played decently despite an oblique injury that once again put him on the pine. His glovework, though, became a serious issue once again, and barely after having filed Jeimer Candelario into the 3B Sunk Costs of the Reds folder next to Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati splurged, again, on a 3B at the trade deadline by picking up Ke’Bryan Hayes and the long-term contract that came with him. That pushed Noelvi off 3B for good, and despite his complete lack of experience there it’s what put him in RF that day in GABP to be in position to rob Reynolds of a homer and ‘save’ the Reds season.

It worked! The grand plan had worked!

The Reds had picked up a pristine defender at 3B and Marte was going to stick in RF just fine!

Heck, given his offensive upside, he’s a lock to be the RF of both the present and future now!

The catch, while brilliant and ‘season saving,’ put a loose patch over some more significantly glaring issues, however. While Marte was brilliant in August after the initial move, he stumbled terribly down the stretch last season while hitting just .186/.215/.275 (.489 OPS) in 107 PA over his final 25 games. Noelvi, a right-handed hitter, was positively abysmal against LHP all season long, hitting just .232/.288/.274 in 104 PA against them to the point where manager Terry Francona has made note of them in his 2026 season preparation.

Catch against the Pirates aside, the surface info here suggests a guy who’s still very, very raw in RF whose offense – which is supposed to be a calling card – still hasn’t lived up to its billing. On top of that, he’s a guy with pretty glaring reverse platoon splits on a team that a) spent the winter bringing in two more left-handed hitters who could probably use a platoon partner (JJ Bleday and Nate Lowe) alongside the already-rostered Will Benson and b) threw Eugenio Suárez’s bat into the mix in a way that, with Sal Stewart around, will make Spencer Steer’s right-handed bat much more available in outfield corners when needed.

So, when you read things like this from MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon on March 9th, it’s hard not to wonder just how strong Marte’s grip on the ‘everyday RF’ role really is, or should be.

Bleday, Benson, and Lowe have all out-hit Marte this spring. Bleday and Benson both are talented, experienced career outfielders with boatloads of experience in RF. Dane Myers, acquired from the Miami Marlins over the winter, has already been out-hitting Marte, provides plus defense all over the outfield, and came in with a reputation of specifically hitting left-handed pitching with aplomb.

Against RHP, it’s hard to imagine an outfield combo of Steer, TJ Friedl, Bleday, and Benson having the most consistent two-way floor. And against LHP, it’s hard to question an outfield spread of Steer, Friedl (whose .770 career OPS against LHP is actually better than his .754 mark against RHP), and Myers.

And if that’s the case, well, I’m not exactly sure where Marte fits right now in all of this – at least for right now.

He’s still just 24 years old. He’s still just barely played RF, and his speed and arm and athleticism makes you pretty comfortable with the idea that he’ll only get better there with rep after rep after rep. But he’s also a guy with a pair of options left, and 2026 sure does look like one of those rare years where maybe, just maybe, the Reds might win more games than they lose despite already being without Hunter Greene for a time and the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers looking ever-so-potent in the NL Central.

So, it could be another one of those years where every play, every decision could be the difference between sneaking into the playoffs or finishint ever-so-short. With that much on the line, it’s hard not to wonder whether starting Marte in AAA as the team’s everyday RF for a few weeks – or maybe longer – until he begins to wow the way a top prospect seeking a promotion should is anything other than the most prudent decision Cincinnati can make in the next two weeks.

Even if we all will never forget that catch.

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