The drivers who should be worrying about NASCAR Cup playoff hopes

13 races down, 13 races to go in the regular season for the NASCAR Cup Series. At the halfway point, there have been eight different winners with Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing [JGR] taking the lion’s share of victories.

Those fortunate eight are William Byron [Hendrick], Kyle Larson [Hendrick], Christopher Bell [JGR], Denny Hamlin [JGR], Joey Logano [Penske], Austin Cindric [Penske], Josh Berry [Wood Brothers], and newly crowned Coca-Cola 600 winner Ross Chastain [Trackhouse].

But while these drivers are feeling secure, there are several others beginning to sweat. Looking closer at the standings, drivers like Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney need not worry (yet). While they are winless, they do have a comfortable points margin over the cut-line. But as we’ve seen before, that could rapidly change should a few more drivers lower in the standings start grabbing wins.

Where things get more nerve-wracking is around the bubble, but there’s still no need to panic for these drivers at this time. Ryan Preece holds the 16th and final spot after taking into account the drivers beneath him who have already won, leaving on the hot seat. He is just six points ahead of his RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher, who recently got 30 points back after a penalty appeal.

This remains an incredibly tight battle that will surely look a lot different around the cut-off race at Daytona, with eight winless drivers within 40 points of Preece. There is no margin for error right now with this group. But what about the drivers even deeper in the standings? It might be time to be a little bit worried, if not fully beginning to panic. Here’s a brief look at those drivers and their current situation: 

Ty Gibbs: 25th, -50pts out

Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Gibbs is still in a position to point his way in, but his season has left the No. 54 team scratching their heads. Unlike his JGR teammates, the speed just hasn’t been there. Bristol was a bright spot as he finished third, but he has eight finishes of 22nd or worse in the first 13 races as well. This comes as quite a surprise. Despite being winless in his first 100 Cup starts, Gibbs still made the playoffs last year.

Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports Ford, Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, Joey Logano, Team Penske Ford

Photo by: Logan Riely / Getty Images

Smith is with a new team in 2025 and so far, he’s improving on last year’s performance. But that still puts him just 26th in the standings with a best finish of ninth. However, it was around this point last year when he started turning things around, so perhaps we’ve yet to see the best he has to offer in the No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford. He did manage to earn a pole position at Talladega, so we know he has the speed when the series heads to superspeedways.

Erik Jones, LEGACY MOTOR CLUB Toyota

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Few expected Jones to be lagging behind his teammate in 2025, but like the two names we already went over, he is. Legacy Motor Club has been struggling for speed, but there is reason to be hopeful. Recent races have shown an uptick in performance, including a top five for Jones at Texas and a solid showing in the Coke 600. Maybe all is not lost, but they need to start making big gains, now.

Noah Gragson, Front Row Motorsports Ford

Photo by: Logan Riely / Getty Images

Gragson has been a bit like his FRM teammate Smith. The potential is there, but the execution is not. A top ten at COTA, a top five at Talladega, and another top ten at the Coke 600 show that they can put together strong races, and Gragson is a proven multi-time winner in the Xfinity Series. But the weeks when they’re off, they are very off, and that’s left him buried in the standings. 

Justin Haley, Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

Photo by: Getty Images

Haley’s team just wants to go a few weeks without losing any more personnel. Crew chief Rodney Childers abruptly parted ways with Spire mid-season and they lost several (good) crew members to Hendrick Motorsports. While both of his Spire teammates have challenged for race wins, Haley has been falling behind and has recorded no finish higher than tenth. Around Gragson and Haley is where drivers and teams are likely less concerned about points at this point and are thinking more about how they can hit a home run and score a victory.

Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

Suarez locked himself into the 2024 playoffs with a win in the second race of the year. He almost did something similar early this season, but lost out in a battle with Josh Berry for the Las Vegas win. Suarez has had brief moments of speed and Trackhouse just won the Coke 600 with his teammate Chastain, but the consistency isn’t there at all. Suarez hasn’t led more than 12 laps in any single race, and the four DNFs due to crashes haven’t helped either. He’s likely in a must-win mindset and he has some good opportunities coming up to do just that, but just as Chastain did one week ago, he will have to capitalize when those moments arrive.

Ty Dillon, Kaulig Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

T. Dillon is nowhere near his veteran teammate AJ Allmendinger at Kaulig Racing, finishing no higher than 12th in any race this year. Dillon’s return to the Cup Series has been a struggle and winning a race in the Cup Series is something he is 0-258 in achieving. With the lack of speed that has plagued this No. 10 team, his only hope likely sits with the drafting races at Atlanta and Daytona.

Brad Keselowski, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Photo by: Chris Graythen – Getty Images

A true shocker. The 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion made the playoffs last year and before a top-five finish in the Coke 600, Keselowski has been nowhere. Nine finishes of 26th or worse in the first 13 races, five DNFs due to crashes in what has been the worst season of his career. His teammates are battling around the bubble while Keselowski lags 100 points behind them. It’s a confusing situation as no one, including Keselowski, expected to see the No. 6 Ford in this position.

Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

SVG is the lowest of the three Trackhouse drivers, but he is also leading the ROTY standings with his only rival just one point behind him. No one expected the three-time Supercars champion to come in and immediately find his way on ovals, but he wasn’t making any progress either … until recently. A 20th at Kansas and a 14th in the Coke 600 are his best oval finishes of the year, both coming in the last two races. He even earned pole position for the All-Star Open at North Wilkesboro. And as strange as it may sound, SVG likely has a better chance of making the playoffs than many of the drivers ahead of him. He’s a road racing ace and while he missed out on a win at COTA (finishing sixth), there are four more road courses left in the regular season. He is fully capable of winning all of them, and this Kiwi only needs one to shake up the entire playoff picture.

Riley Herbst, 23XI Racing Toyota

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Another rookie like SVG, also driving a newly created third team but for 23XI Racing. Unfortunately, he does not have the benefit of a track where he knows he can win like SVG. Herbst’s best result this year is 14th and he has been deep in the pack during most races. He has to win, but where can he make that happen? 

Cole Custer, Haas Factory Team

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

We all knew 2025 would be a struggle for the Haas Factory Team. After Stewart-Haas Racing shut down, all that remains is a single-car effort with Custer behind the wheel. He has no finishes higher than 13th, and 11 of the first 13 races have seen him finish outside the top 20. And yet, he was also half-a-lap away from potentially winning the Daytona 500 when he crashed in the battle for the win. With how the rest of the season has gone, he surely has Daytona circled later this summer as perhaps his only chance to put Gene Haas into the playoffs.

Cody Ware: 36th, -200pts out

Cody Ware, Rick Ware Racing Ford; Cole Custer, Haas Factory Team Ford

Photo by: Christopher Trim Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

There’s no way to sugarcoat this. Ware is last among all full-time drivers, a full 75 points behind his nearest competition. Ware’s best finish is only 24th and nine of the first 13 races have seen him finish 30th or worse. While I’m tempted to say there’s no hope, that’s never truly the case in this championship format. Last year, Harrison Burton entered Race #25 of 26 at Daytona dead last among full-time drivers, and he went on to win the race.