The Battle of Ontario Betting Guide: Best Bets, Strategies and Futures for Maple Leafs versus Senators

Breaking down the best value bets, futures to take and strategies to look out for ahead of the first round matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators

The Battle of Ontario is officially happening with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators facing off in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, starting with Game One this Sunday. It’ll be a highly-anticipated matchup that should re-ignite an age old rivalry.

Toronto has faced off against Ottawa 171 times with their first meeting dating back to 1891, when the Senators beat the then-Toronto St. George’s to win the Ontario ice hockey title.

Flash forward 134 years and both teams still hate each other as they head into their fifth postseason head-to-head with the Maple Leafs winning all four series and holding a 16-8 record. It should make for must-see tv and a series of games that every hockey fan won’t want to miss.

We want to add to your viewing enjoyment by providing a couple betting options that you could take to enhance the experience and win money along the way.

All betting lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change. Hockey is a difficult sport to predict so please gamble responsibly.

More NHL: Safe Bets to Close Out the NHL Season: Top Picks for Parlays and Futures

Maple Leafs Series Spread -1.5 (+122)

Ottawa has won five straight over Toronto heading into the playoffs but they have a young, unexperienced roster that could have a hard time adjusting to a playoff environment. The Maple Leafs have the fourth-oldest roster in the NHL with a average age at 29.8 tied with the Golden Knights and Hurricanes.

Toronto’s stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have lived through the playoffs with some wins but more regularly heart-breaking losses. The Maple Leafs have been able to bounce back from it and put themselves in a position to redeem themselves with this year being their biggest triumph yet thanks to their third division title in team history.

The confidence with this team is rolling high and with their recent additions of playoff-type players like Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton, they should be able to take advantage of a Senators team that is the tenth-youngest with an average age at 27.8 years old.

I expect the Sens to be able to edge out at least one game in the series after beating Toronto four consecutive times this season but the second win will be the challenge. Either way, this bet covers both ends with the only loss being if the Sens push the series to Game 7 but the Leafs playoff experience shouldn’t let that happen.

More NHL: NHL Betting Roundup: Demidov and Nikishin To Make Debut, Landeskog Return

John Tavares – Series Leading Goal Scorer (+800)

The favourite to score the most goals in the Battle of Ontario is Auston Matthews, which makes sense as the near-70 goal scorer is tied with William Nylander for the team-lead in goals with 18 over the last seven postseasons. Both forwards are great choices at +340 and +500 respectively but we look at a much better value with the player behind the two in John Tavares.

Toronto’s former captain has 12 goals over his last 38 playoff games but has been scorching hot, entering the postseason. With 11 goals over his last 13 games, no player in the NHL is hotter than Johnny Toronto.

The 34-year-old veteran centre rides a four-game point drought versus the Senators but I expect him to turn this around in the postseason. He’s been playing for a new contract and should get a big one after recording 38 goals this season, his highest goal total since his first year in Toronto in 2019.

Betting Strategies: Offence to Stay Hot

There has been six or more goals in 15 of the last 25 meetings between the Maple Leafs and Senators, which promises more explosive games in the postseason. If we do catch most of the game lines coming out at over/under 6.5 goals, that would be tight but still doable as that number hit in six of their last 12 matchups.

More NHL: Blues Enter Stanley Cup Playoffs As Dark Horse Contender

The most ideal situation for us would be to wait till the games start and hope for no early goals and then getting the over 5.5 with a live bet at a better price tag.

Matchup Trends: Potential Player Prop Targets

Toronto Maple Leafs:

Auston Matthews has 16 goals, 17 assists for 33 points in his last 25 games against the Senators, including goals in two of the last three matchups. Nine goals and 12 assists for 21 points in his last 16 games and has second-best playoff point-per-game average on the team at 0.87 through 55 games.
Mitch Marner has just four goals and six assists for ten points in his last 16 games versus the Senators. Six goals and 14 assists for 20 points in last 15 games and has the best playoff point-per-game average on the team at 0.88 through 57 games.
Matthew Knies has a pair of goals and an assist for three points in his last four games versus Senators. Plays on a line with Matthews and Marner, Potential Value Bet Option.
William Nylander has nine goals and six assists for 15 points in his last 16 games against the Senators. 12 goals and 17 assists for 29 points in last 26 games.
John Tavares has three goals and 12 assists for 15 points in his last 19 games against the Senators (four-game point drought). Bounce back should come with red hot play as of late – Potential Value Bet Option.

Ottawa Senators:

Tim Stutzle has four goals and nine assists for 13 points in his last ten games against the Maple Leafs. Has been shown to lack toughness and could struggle in playoff-type atmosphere – Potential Fade Option.
Brady Tkachuk has a goal and an assist for just two points in his last eight games versus the Maple Leafs. Has shown to have playoff-type build but untested, will need wait-and-see approach.
Drake Batherson has two goals and four assists for a point-per-game average in his last six games versus the Maple Leafs. No playoff experience but could fly under the radar – Potential Value Bet Option.
Shane Pinto has three goals and four assists for seven points in his last eight games versus the Maple Leafs. Four goals and two assists for six points over last seven games.

More Hockey: Top NHL Prospect Expected to Join Michigan Wolverines Next Season