It’s throwback weekend at Darlington, and after analyzing practice data, I’ve stumbled on a bit of a throwback driver to bet for Sunday’s Goodyear 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1).
Current NASCAR odds for Darlington have five drivers a tier above everyone else as the favorites. They are Kyle Larson (+500), William Byron (+650), Ryan Blaney (+700), Tyler Reddick (+700), and Denny Hamlin (+750).
But my throwback driver lies just a bit farther down the odds board that I like for Sunday’s Goodyear 400 at Darlington.
MORE: Full Darlington race preview | Full starting lineup
NASCAR Odds, Best Bet for Darlington
*Odds as of Saturday evening
Kyle Busch Top Chevrolet (+650) — ESPN BET
As my colleague PJ Walsh alluded to at Homestead (and I quote) “Trying to beat Kyle Larson at Homestead-Miami isn’t exactly a fun strategy.”
Except here, we can swap Homestead, which is another steeply banked, high tire wear intermediate track, with Darlington. Let’s add in pole-sitter and previous Darlington winner William Byron to the mix, and we might have a difficult time winning a top Chevy bet.
RELATED: Byron scorches lap for pole | See starting lineup in photos
But I’m backing Kyle Busch anyway. Why? It’s pretty simple, honestly.
“Rowdy” was right in a tier with Larson and Byron in my practice FLAGS metric. Larson and Byron are +150 and +190, respectively, to finish as the top Chevy driver, but the Richard Childress Racing veteran sits at +650 — a long way down in implied odds from the two Hendrick drivers.
It’s especially curious given the last time NASCAR was at Darlington, Busch finished second in the 2024 Southern 500, behind only a Ford driver (who is now a Toyota driver), in Chase Briscoe.
That means Busch finished as the top Chevy driver the last time the series visited this track.
While it’s not a massive value at +650, the implied odds of 13.3% are below my model’s 14.9% chances. It gives Busch the chance to claim top bowtie honors. And in a race where I’m showing very little value across the board, I’ll take it and hope some more value opens up closer to the green flag on Sunday.
The Bet: Kyle Busch top Chevy +650 at ESPN BET | Bet to: +600
Read the full article here
