Talladega Playoff race is about weighing risk versus stage points

There are two races left to consolidate the Round of 8 into the Championship 4 but given these two races take place at Talladega and Martinsville, it’s hard to call anyone a ‘must-win’ yet.

Denny Hamlin Adv.
Kyle Larson +35
Christopher Bell +20
Chase Briscoe +15
–
William Byron -15
Chase Elliott -23
Joey Logano -24
Ryan Blaney -31

At least, that’s how Joey Logano is looking at his 24 point deficit ahead of a race at a track where everyone he is chasing could theoretically be wiped out in a first lap crash that could change the entire calculus.

“If it wasn’t Talladega, maybe I would say it’s a must-win but I still think there’s two avenues to get there,” Logano said on Saturday morning. “The (simplest) way would be winning. But considering what Talladega is and how this race can play out, I still think we can point our way in.

“I don’t want to completely cut that off yet. I still think there’s a chance. Now, if you’re 24 points out going into Martinsville, you probably must win at that point but there’s still two races and one of them is at Talladega.”

Logano simply got outscored on points in the first race of a Round in which he was the lowest seeded contender. Blaney crashed in the first stage as a result of a flat tire.

“I try to go into every weekend with optimism and thinking we can go compete no matter where we go,” Blaney said during a mid-week press conference. “But looking at Talladega, a lot of things can happen that can benefit or hurt you or benefit your competitors or hurt them. Why I say it’s not a must-win yet is … a couple of guys get torn up early who are in the playoffs, and you can go have a big day. Big point swings can happen at these types of racetracks.”

It also helps that both Penske contenders have eliminated teammates in Josh Berry and Austin Cindric, who in all honesty, will be solely responsible for pushing them to stage points and a chance to win on Sunday.

“At the end of the day, it’s always very situational but from a team standpoint, obviously I have to be an asset to those guys throughout the course of the next two weeks …,” Cindric said. “I’ve been in that position before and I understand that.”

Cindric says the same dynamic applies to William Byron and Chase Elliott, who are also below the cutline, in terms of having eliminated teammates who can help.

“So, there’s a wingman for each of those, like (Alex Bowman) is in the same position as me, (Ty Gibbs) as well and (Denny) Hamlin is able to do the same thing for his teammates if he chooses to.

“Once you go down the list it’s pretty even as far as the opportunity to help your company if the opportunity presents itself. This is the type of racetrack where that would happen more than anywhere else.”

Byron on ‘freak deal’ at Vegas

Ty Dillon and William Byron crash

Photo by: Marc Sanchez LVMS Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Byron’s potential elimination, while not as dire, is the most surprising given his status as the regular season champion. But he was dealt a heavy blow last week when Ty Dillon slowed in front of him to pit, without waving in addition to some kind of spotter miscommunication, leading to a collision that cost him a spot above the cutline.

“It was such a freak deal that it’s hard to go back and be like ‘how does this not happen again,’ but Monday morning quarterback, had I known the situation of what was happening, you could say, would I react different or whatever but in the moment, there were no signs this was happening.

“If you go back and know that it’s going to happen, it’s different, so you have to be no so critical of yourself because (I) didn’t have any expectations it was going to happen … which is why it was such a violent crash because there was no sign, no wave or a line, just looking at the closing rate, maybe I could have slowed down sooner, but that’s all Monday morning.”

For his part, Byron is just pursuing one race at a time to get into a transfer.

“There’s no better time to embrace ‘one week at a time’ than now and try to dive into the details of how to be better in the draft,” Byron said. “So far, I feel good about my preparation and feel like the spring here was a good race for us.

“I did spend a couple of days stewing on it but I’ve moved past it and ready to move on.”

Meanwhile, Kyle Larson is in a point of advantage in that just getting stage points early and/or simply avoiding the big crash leaves him in a good place at Martinsville. Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe have some work to do even above the cutline but it’s always better to be above than below.

But, it’s also tough because aggressively pursuing stage points could lead to crashes or being too conservative could lead to everyone below the cutline getting all the stage points.

“I don’t know — we haven’t talked about anything about those scenarios,” Larson said. “The seven of us are all going to try to get stage points. You say +35, but if anyone below the cutline wins both stages, that’s 20 points and that’s a lot.

“There is risk that comes with that. Hopefully we have executed well enough that we’re near the front but it is hard weighing those options and it is hard to win from outside the top-10 to 15. Hopefully we’re just in that group all day.”

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– The Motorsport.com Team