Outwit. Outplay. Outlast.
You know, like the TV show.
When it comes to “our” Survivor — the type of football pool/contest where you pick one team to win straight up each week of the NFL season, never using one twice, and when you lose, you’re out — there’s also another key element of winning strategy: Outlucky.
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Good fortune is mandatory, and as destiny goes, outlasting is out of our control, but, what we hope to do this season is give you your best opportunity to outwit and outplay the competition. Each week, we’ll look at not just what team is most likely to win, but why they may or may not be the best strategic play.
Contest sizes can vary. From the 15,000-plus expected to be entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the 15-plus people you compete against at work or the variety of entrants in a Yahoo Football Survival League. Fundamentally, the smaller the field, the better chance your contest ends before Week 18. Your strategy should be tweaked relative to that. However, for our purposes, we have to make the assumption that you’ll need to go the distance to survive the contest.
Week 1 money lines
The favorite, money line and implied win percentage for every favorite in Week 1
(Matt Russell)
How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win percentage (IWP).
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*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold
Market power ratings
It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use them again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.
Here’s a list of the betting market’s top 18 teams, and estimation of their value to the point spread:
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 1 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.
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Week 1’s top choices
As we look at the best options for Week 1 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from that pick. The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using them now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those matchups).
T-1. Broncos (76.8%) over Titans
The Titans and quarterback Cam Ward go to Denver to open the season, and the betting market has pushed the point spread up to -8. However, the moneyline-probability conversion is a good reminder that even a rookie on the road against the Broncos’ vaunted defense, at elevation, still has almost a 25% chance of knocking out what will surely be a popular Survivor choice.
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What you’re giving up:
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Week 6 at Jets (DEN -4.5)
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Week 7 vs. Giants (DEN -6.5)
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Week 16 vs. Jaguars (DEN -5.5)
This might be the biggest favorite the Broncos are all season — and if it’s not, it’s because they end up outperforming their current market rating. If you’re saving Denver, it’s for either a road trip to the Jets, at home against the Giants (who have three viable quarterbacks should one get hurt) or at home against the Jaguars, who may be in playoff contention if new head coach Liam Coen has Trevor Lawrence turned around.
T-1. Eagles (76.8%) over Cowboys
It’s an opening-night divisional game, and no one wants to go out of Survivor before the first weekend even starts. That said, the betting market has pushed Philadelphia through the key number of -7 since the Micah Parsons trade.
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What you’re giving up:
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Week 8 vs. Giants (PHI -9.5)
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Week 13 vs. Bears (PHI -7)
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Week 15 vs. Raiders (PHI -9.5)
It’s not necessarily “now or never” to use the Eagles, but, of course, if you get knocked out before Week 8, it will be. With a trio of options to use Philadelphia when it’s also at, or over, a touchdown favorite, keeping the Eagles holstered for a couple months might be the prudent play.
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3. Cardinals (71.3%) over Saints
There was a time when we’d rule out a road team regardless of the matchup, but, now that home-field advantage is valued in the market at closer to 1.5 points, we’ll rely on the money line to dictate win probability.
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What you’re giving up:
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Week 2 vs. Panthers (ARI -6)
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Week 4 vs. Seahawks (ARI -3)
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Week 5 vs. Titans (ARI -6.5)
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Week 12 vs. Jaguars (ARI -4.5)
This is where actual NFL handicapping needs to come into play.
While there’s an assumption that the Saints will be bad this season, we don’t know that for certain — and given the market rates New Orleans at the bottom of the league, there’s a better chance the Saints are underrated than overrated. Meanwhile, looking ahead, the Cardinals have three comfy matchups at home, and while they should be favored by more against the Panthers and Titans, you might think those teams are on the way up, while the Seahawks’ arrow might be pointing down.
4. Commanders (70.6%) over Giants
What can we expect from the Giants with Russell Wilson at the helm? Are the Commanders able to keep up their momentum from last season?
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Both are unanswerable before Sunday, but Washington will have to block up a New York defense that should be its strength.
What you’re giving up:
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Week 3 vs. Raiders (WSH -5.5)
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Week 6 vs. Bears (WSH -4.5)
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Week 9 vs. Seahawks (WSH -4)
The betting market has Washington just inside the top 10 of the NFL, but the Commanders’ schedule is tricky enough that there are no cupcakes ahead. Similarly to the Cardinals’ options, where you’ll outplay your fellow competitors is picking which of these relatively tightly-lined games that Washington will, themselves, survive.
[Check out all of Yahoo’s sports betting content here in our new betting hub]
Darkhorse: Rams (55.9%) over Texans
The worst thing about getting knocked out of Survivor is no longer getting to play Survivor, so it’s tough to ever try something off the beaten path. That said, if there’s a ton of entries in your pool, these are the types of moves that need to be made, on occasion.
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The Texans bring a revamped offensive line to L.A. to face a defensive front that tortured Sam Darnold in the playoffs last season and then held their own against one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, in a losing cause in Philadelphia.
If you’re worried about the long-term health of Matthew Stafford’s back, it’s probably best to use the Rams ASAP.
What you’re giving up:
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Week 4 vs. Colts (LAR -6)
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Week 9 vs. Saints (LAR -9.5)
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Week 11 vs. Seahawks (LAR -3)
This section should really be called “what you’re getting” by taking such a short favorite, since it’s opening up all the options for later in the season listed above.
That Week 9 game with the Saints is pretty attractive, but surviving with the Rams here not only removes you from the possible weekly drama of Stafford’s health, but gives you the green light to take the Packers over the Panthers in Week 9 — which would be the backup plan anyway if Stafford’s out that week.
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With so many permutations on the highway to the destination that is Week 18, it’s important to remember that every decision made complicates one at a future exit — a ramp you definitely don’t want to take.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
Read the full article here
