Super Bowl 60 Player Notes: New England Patriots

The week before the Super Bowl is always packed with information, analysis and opinion, as the entirety of the NFL community hones in on one single game. So I’ve compiled some particularly relevant notes and nuggets, covering just about every mildly relevant fantasy player on each team. This piece covers the New England Patriots, and the Seattle Seahawks collection arrives Sunday. If you’re into the numbers, don’t miss Aaron Schatz’s legendary content and our StatsHub advanced stats research tool for next-level insights. Enjoy and Happy Super Bowl LX!

New England Patriots Player Notes

Drake Maye, QB

Drake Maye’s postseason run has been lackluster in comparison to his MVP-level regular season campaign. But he’s had all the pieces scattered across the three games — 334 total yards against the Chargers, three TDs against the Texans, 65 yards and a TD on the ground against the Broncos (with a chunk of the game in a blizzard). Time to see if he can put it all together.

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• While Maye’s three opponents so far — the Chargers, Texans and Broncos — have all been excellent defenses, the Seahawks are No. 1 in passing DVOA including the postseason (-20.1%), just ahead of Houston in second (-18.5%).

• Those three previous opponents allowed the second-, third- and eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season, so at ninth fewest, the Seahawks are narrowly the “softest” opponent he’s faced all postseason in that regard. And they did allow 30.88 and 28.56 points to fellow MVP candidate Matthew Stafford in their last two meetings.

• Maye was most effective on the long ball this season — he led the league with an absurd 1.31 EPA/dropback on deep passes, logging a 128.5 passer rating and 52.1% success rate, with seven TDs and just one interception.

• Maye has been a scrambling demon these playoffs, after leading the league in scrambles during the regular season. He’s racked up 125 yards on nine scramble attempts, picking up six first downs and averaging 47 rushing yards per game. And while Seattle is stifling against running backs, they’ve surrendered the fifth-most yards per carry to QBs (5.03).

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB

Rhamondre Stevenson has leveled up lately — and largely relegated TreVeyon Henderson to the bench as a result — with 102 scrimmage yards per game and six touchdowns over his last six contests. He’ll likely need to have a solid game for the Patriots to have a chance at the Lombardi.

• Remember how Seattle is No. 1 in passing DVOA including the playoffs? Yeah, they’re also No. 1 in rushing DVOA (-31.7%). Yikes.

• In those six games since Week 16, Stevenson has logged 17 explosive plays from scrimmage, 312 rushing yards after contact and 6.8 scrimmage yards per touch — though he did manage just 2.8 yards per carry last week against Denver … the only team tougher against fantasy RBs than Seattle this season.

• Bad news for Stevenson’s touchdown odds: The Seahawks have allowed just two rushing touchdowns to RBs over their last 12 games — one to Kyren Williams and one to Blake Corum.

• One major glint of hope for Stevenson: Including the postseason, no defense saw more targets (7.5) or receptions (5.8) per game to the running back position than Seattle. And Stevenson’s 11.1 yards per reception, including playoffs, is the most by any RB with at least 30 receptions in a season over the last three years.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB

• After struggling with efficiency in the first two rounds of the playoffs — 64 scrimmage yards on 27 opportunities (2.4 per) — TreVeyon Henderson plummeted to a 6.3% snap share in the AFC Championship, his lowest mark of the season by far. Unless Mike Vrabel and the Patriots are playing coy to surprise Seattle with Henderson in the Super Bowl, he may be an afterthought in Santa Clara.

Stefon Diggs, WR

• Stefon Diggs has led the hodgepodge Patriots receiving corps this postseason with 17 targets and 11 receptions across three games, but he’s seen an average depth of target of just 6.0 air yards and consequently totaled just 73 receiving yards.

• The only wide receivers to top 60 receiving yards against the Seahawks since Week 8 are Puka Nacua (three times) and Davante Adams in the NFC Championship. Not an encouraging prospect for Patriots wideouts in general.

Kayshon Boutte, WR

• Drake Maye’s favorite deep threat, Kayshon Boutte, actually only trails Stefon Diggs by two targets this postseason (15 total), but his aDOT of 16.9 air yards is more than 10 yards further down the field. As a result, he comfortably leads New England with 147 receiving yards this postseason and is easily the best bet for a “big day” against Seattle.

• Having said that, the Seahawks have allowed the third-lowest explosive play rate on dropbacks this year, including the playoffs (12.8%). And if you remove Rams games from the equation — since Stafford and Nacua were apparently their kryptonite — they jump to first overall (11.5%).

Other WRs

• Mack Hollins returned from injury to catch both of his targets for 51 yards in the AFC Championship. He’s a deep Super Bowl sleeper who’s actually led the Patriots in target rate since Week 8 — 22.8% on 232 routes run — with an impressive 13.6 aDOT and 69.8% catch rate.

• DeMario Douglas is another wild card in this diverse Patriots offense, as he’s third in target rate over the latter half of the season and has been quietly efficient, leading the Patriots in EPA/route (0.17) and EPA/target (0.92).

• One last dart throw for New England: rookie wide receiver Kyle Williams. He’s rarely utilized but averages 19.6 yards per reception and scored on three of his 11 catches this year (including a 72-yarder in Week 10).

Hunter Henry, TE

• Hunter Henry had a couple hot stretches this season — he was the TE4 with 13.35 PPR points per game for the first month and the TE9 with 13.10 points per game from Weeks 12-18. So while he has done next to nothing these playoffs, he’s always a threat for a surprise performance.

• If the Seahawks have one “soft spot,” it might be the tight end position. Tight ends have averaged 8.3 targets per game against them, including the playoffs — sixth-most for any defense — and during the regular season, they allowed seven tight ends to score double-digit PPR fantasy points without a touchdown, most in the league.

Bonus: Marcus Jones

If you’re looking for a wild pick to score a touchdown — or maybe even win Super Bowl MVP — I’m eyeing Patriots cornerback and returner Marcus Jones. There’s never been a punt return touchdown in a Super Bowl, but Jones had two this season to go along with his two pick sixes. He’s also the all-time NFL leader in yards per punt return (14.3). In total, no player has more defensive and special teams touchdowns than Jones (six) since he entered the league in 2022. He’s a longshot, but a fun one.