South Florida’s 34-7 upset of No. 25 Boise State on Thursday night sent the College Football Playoff picture into chaos before the first full Saturday of action ever started. The Broncos now face an uphill battle to repeat as the Group of Six’s CFP representative after beginning the season as the only ranked team outside a Power Four league.
With an Oct. 4 date at Notre Dame headlining its remaining schedule, Boise State will be hard-pressed to match the 12-1 record it owned entering Selection Sunday last season. As a result, the door has been flung open for other candidates to break it down and enter the 12-team postseason bracket.
Among them will be South Florida, which rode an electric performance from quarterback Byrum Brown and timely defensive plays to a statement victory. Brown completed 16 of 24 passes for 210 yards while also rushing for 43 yards and two touchdowns.
Boise State struggled to counter Brown’s heroics as it struggled to replace Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty’s massive production from last season. The Broncos were also doomed in part by a pair of momentum-snuffing fumbles in South Florida territory during the first half.
South Florida turned a 10-7 halftime edge into a commanding lead with a barrage of big plays and a pair of fourth-down stops. Among the top highlights was a 45-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Locklan Hewlett, who snuck onto the field on fourth-and-6 disguised as a punter, before unleashing a bomb to receiver Keshaun Singleton.
The outcome ended Boise State’s streak of 61 straight games scoring 10 or more points. It also marked South Florida’s largest win vs. an AP-ranked foe since 2005 and second-largest win vs. a ranked team in school history.
Group of Six race wide open
CFP selection criteria calls for the top five highest-ranked conference champions to receive automatic bids to the 12-team bracket. A season ago, Mountain West champ Boise State was the obvious choice from outside the top four leagues after suffering its only regular-season loss in a 37-34 heartbreaker at No. 1 ranked Oregon.
Now, the door is wide open, and the American champion — whoever that winds up being — will have a say in the fight.
“Alex Golesh’s first victory over a ranked team at USF is a confidence-builder for the Bulls as a threat from the American and revealed quite a few warts for Boise State without Ashton Jeanty,” CBS Sports bowls expert Brad Crawford said. “Unless the Broncos fix of myriad of malfunctions, beat Notre Dame on Oct. 4 and cruise through the Mountain West without a loss, the path to getting back to the playoff appears to be washed away.”
USF was picked to finish fifth in the American’s preseason poll and will have two more statement opportunities over the next two weeks with trips to Miami and Florida on deck. The Bulls were expected to be a force in 2024 before limping to a 2-3 start that included a season-ending injury to Brown. Now healthy, the 230-pound bruiser showed Thursday that he could still be the dynamic quarterback USF needs to unlock the potential of third-year coach Alex Golesh’s offense.
Other Group of Six candidates
Other candidates to make the playoff from the Group of Six include Tulane, Navy, Memphis and UTSA, who were picked 1-4, respectively, in the American. Four of nine CBS Sports’ panelists picked the Green Wave as the best Group of Six team entering the season, four picked Boise State and one picked James Madison. After the Broncos’ loss, Green Wave the current betting favorite to earn the spot at +750, followed by Memphis (+800), Navy (+900) and LIberty (+1000), according to DraftKings.
JMU was picked to win the Sun Belt East Division in the league’s preseason poll and has one of the best Group of Six quarterback/running back tandems in Alonzo Barnett and George Pettaway. MAC preseason favorite Toledo could also crack the conversation, especially if the Rockets are able to upset Kentucky on Saturday as a 10-point underdog.
Liberty could be a team to watch from Conference USA, but the Flames drew one of the nation’s easiest schedules and may need an undefeated record to impress the CFP committee enough for a spot. UNLV was picked to finish second in the Mountain West behind Boise State, but the Rebels barely snuck past FCS Idaho State in an uninspiring Week 0 victory.
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