Sonoma Turning Point: A hill to climb for winless Cup drivers on playoff bubble

Here‘s what‘s happening in the world of NASCAR with World Wide Technology Raceway in the rearview and Sonoma Raceway (Sun., 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) right around the corner.

THE LINEUP ️

1️⃣ Good luck to any driver yet to reach Victory Lane this season

2️⃣ Gold or fool’s gold for Team Penske?

3️⃣ How Ryan Blaney ran out of fuel on the final lap

4️⃣ A sip of what to expect this Sunday

5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

1. Good luck to any driver yet to reach Victory Lane this season

With three new drivers in the playoffs in 2024 compared to last year, big names and past champs could be left out of the postseason.

An Austin Cindric victory last Sunday was probably not on the 2024 bingo card for many. But a strong run all day for the No. 2 Team Penske stable paid off as teammate Ryan Blaney ran out of gas on the final lap, opening the door for Cindric to snap an 85-race winless skid and become the ninth different winner of 2024.

Cindric’s win now creates a significant stir on the playoff bubble that will be dodgy to navigate for some of the Cup Series’ biggest stars if they can’t find Victory Lane in the final 11 races of the regular season.

With Chase Elliott, Daniel Suárez and now Cindric all finding Victory Lane, it guarantees that at least three drivers — and really four, considering 2023 playoff driver Kevin Harvick is now retired — from last year’s postseason will not make it come September when the checkered flag waves at Darlington Raceway. Among the crop of drivers who remain winless so far in 2024 are Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch and defending series champion Ryan Blaney. Chastain, Wallace and Buescher have yet to be consistent enough to feel comfortable about their chances to reach Victory Lane in 2024, though Buescher has come extremely close — literally — to doing so.

Meanwhile, Busch continues to struggle in 2024 as he’s parachuted down to 19th in the playoff standings and sits 20 points below Buescher on the elimination line. Not only are Rowdy’s playoff hopes dwindling with each passing weekend but a chance to grab a win in 20 consecutive Cup seasons is also at risk if the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing team can’t find momentum.

Ty Gibbs (+107) and Alex Bowman (+59) are also spoiling the party for those trying to return to the playoffs.

2. Gold or fool’s gold for Team Penske?

Cindric’s Gateway victory locks in at least one team for the organization, but will it cost the Nos. 12 and 22?

You can pencil in multiple Team Penske cars for the playoffs almost any given year, but 2024 could be the outlier that takes a chunk out of Penske lore.

Yes, Cindric’s win would have most people thinking that puts all three of the organization’s teams into the provisional postseason field, but looking at the performances so far from Blaney and Logano in their respective campaigns, hands should be hovering over the proverbial panic button.

Blaney had one of the best cars Sunday at Gateway, running inside the top five for most of the race, and was on his way to victory after the dominant Christopher Bell suffered an engine issue late that forced the No. 20 to bow out of the battle. But after running out of gas off Turn 4 coming to the bell lap, Blaney idled all the way back to the start/finish line to settle for a 24th-place result. Entering Sonoma, Blaney now has three consecutive finishes of 24th or worst and only has two top-10 runs between Bristol and Gateway. With Kyle Larson receiving his playoff waiver, Blaney sits 14th in the playoff standings and just 47 points to the good on Chase Briscoe.

Logano is trending even worse than his younger counterpart. He’s 18th in the playoff standings and 14 marks below Buescher. Both Blaney and Logano are trending toward respective average finishes that would be among their worst seasons at the Cup level.

The two-time titleholder Logano got a much-needed top-five run last Sunday, and Sonoma could be another big day for the No. 22 team as he finished third at the Bay Area road course in 2023.

Top fives and top 10s will be there for both Blaney and Logano as the playoffs near, but victories may be the requirement for them if they hope to chase the Bill France Trophy this year.

3. How Ryan Blaney ran out of fuel on the final lap

NASCAR on FOX’s Larry McReynolds and MRN’s Todd Gordon discuss what happened during the final round of pit stops at Gateway that led to Ryan Blaney running out of fuel, costing him a win.

4. A sip of what to expect this Sunday

Kim Coon and Skip Flores preview the race weekend and hear what Cup Series drivers have to say about Sonoma Raceway ahead of Sunday’s showdown in wine country.

5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

Paint Scheme Preview: Loud and proud looks for Sonoma

NASCAR betting: Opening odds for Sonoma

Power Rankings: Chase Elliott set to sip Sonoma wine for first time?

Kyle Larson granted eligibility waiver for Cup Series Playoffs

Todd Gilliland signs multiyear contract extension with Front Row Motorsports

NASCAR‘s Elton Sawyer: Why Larson was granted playoff waiver

Three Up, Three Down: Drivers in focus leaving Gateway

Cindric cherishes Gateway win, reflects on adversity of jump to Cup

Carl Edwards reflects on career, ‘opens the book’ to future role in sport

Which driver is favored to win 2024 title after Gateway