Shane van Gisbergen just threw a wrench in the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture.
Van Gisbergen got the second Cup Series win of his career on Sunday in NASCAR’s inaugural Cup race in Mexico City. He drove away from Christopher Bell in the final stage of the race to win by approximately 18 seconds.
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The win effectively clinches a spot for van Gisbergen in the 16-driver Cup playoffs in what has been a miserable season until Sunday. The former Australian Supercars champion was 33rd in the points standings through the first 15 races of the season, with just one top-10 finish.
Van Gisbergen also benefits from a recent NASCAR rule change if he continues to have a terrible season outside of the win. In 2023, NASCAR removed its rule requiring drivers to be in the top 30 in the points standings at the conclusion of the regular season to make the playoffs with a win. Since van Gisbergen now has a win, he simply needs to hope that 17 drivers don’t win a race before the playoffs. And given that van Gisbergen is the 10th driver to win this season, it’s unlikely that seven more new winners will visit victory lane over the next 10 races.
Shane van Gisbergen scored the second Cup Series win of his NASCAR career on Sunday in Mexico City. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
(Chris Graythen via Getty Images)
His win comes nearly two years after van Gisbergen stunned NASCAR with a victory in the inaugural Chicago street race in 2023. The 36-year-old New Zealand native became the first driver in more than 60 years to win in his first Cup start when he drove away from everyone else on a damp track.
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There were a lot of parallels on Sunday. Rain hampered the start of the race, and sprinkles persisted throughout the entirety of the 100-lap affair, even as teams put on dry tires. After Bell put up a fight after the last restart, van Gisbergen simply checked out and made it clear who the fastest driver on the track was.
The effects on the standings
Van Gisbergen entered the 2025 season as a playoff dark horse because of his ability on road courses and the way that NASCAR’s playoff format is decided. He’s one of the best — if not the best — true road racers in the series, even if he’s still getting the hang of racing on an oval.
The idea of van Gisbergen getting into the playoffs with a road course win wasn’t far-fetched. And now it’s nearly reality, to the detriment of the drivers currently on the playoff cut line. Kyle Busch and Ryan Preece entered Sunday’s race tied for what would’ve been the final provisional spot in the playoffs. They’re now both out, and Busch has a lot of work to do after a brake issue led to him crashing out of the race early in the first stage.
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With 10 drivers earning wins so far this season, Chris Buescher in 13th is currently the final driver in the playoffs. Anyone behind Buescher — Busch, Carson Hocevar, Preece and many others — needs to get a win or have a strong summer run.
Mexico City race results
1. Shane van Gisbergen
2. Christopher Bell
3. Chase Elliott
4. Alex Bowman
5. Michael McDowel
6. John Hunter Nemechek
7. Chase Briscoe
8. Cole Custer
9. William Byron
10. Chris Buescher
11. Ty Gibbs
12. Bubba Wallace
13. AJ Allmendinger
14. Ryan Blaney
15. Ryan Preece
16. Ross Chastain
17. Erik Jones
18. Austin Cindric
19. Daniel Suarez
20. Tyler Reddick
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21. Joey Logano
22. Todd Gilliland
23. Ryan Truex
24. Justin Haley
25. Brad Keselowski
26. Josh Berry
27. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
28. Austin Dillon
29. Riley Herbst
30. Noah Gragson
31. Cody Ware
32. Katherine Legge
33. Ty Dillon
34. Carson Hocevar
35. Zane Smith
36. Kyle Larson
37. Kyle Busch
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