The vibe coming out of the G-League showcase in Orlando was that Jimmy Butler likely would remain a member of the Miami Heat past the Feb. 6 trade deadline. The reason was primarily the new NBA CBA with its tax aprons and trade restrictions: It is very difficult to construct a deal that worked for both sides and gets Butler to one of his preferred destinations (Butler has leverage because he can opt out at the end of this season and become a free agent).
To crank up the fire under those talks comes this report from ESPN’s Shams Charania on Christmas Day: Jimmy Butler would prefer a trade out of Miami before the deadline and has a short list of playoff/contending teams he would prefer to be traded to.
Six-time NBA All-Star Jimmy Butler prefers a trade out of Miami ahead of the Feb. 6 deadline, league sources told ESPN…
Butler is open to trade destinations such as the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, league sources said. Multiple teams have called the Heat to express interest in Butler in the past two weeks, but Miami has not shown urgency in talks as the franchise monitors the first half of the season, those sources said. The Heat, in sixth place in the East, could simply play out the season and view whether Butler opts in or opts out.
On ESPN before the tip-off of the Christmas Day slate of games, Charania said the Suns and Warriors top Butler’s wish list.
Let’s break all this down:
• Because they currently live between the first and second aprons, the Heat cannot take back $1 more in a trade than they send out. Most teams Butler wants to go to (such as Phoenix) are in this same situation. This has to be an almost dollar-for-dollar trade, which is very difficult to construct. Plus, Miami is the current sixth seed in the East, has played better of late and is open to just playing this season out and then seeing what happens this summer with a potential sign-and-trade of Butler (because the teams he wants to go to don’t have the cap space to sign him then, either).
• While the Suns reportedly have a serious interest in Butler, the only way to make the trade work is to trade Bradley Beal for Butler and another player, plus a pick (technically, the Suns could trade Kevin Durant or Devin Booker for Butler, that’s not happening). The problem is Beal has a no-trade clause, no deal can happen without his consent, and there are no signs he would be willing to do that. While Beal has shown an interest in Miami in the past, the other challenge for Butler to the Suns is why would Miami play along? Beal is not as good a player as Butler at this point in their careers, and Beal has two years and $100.8 million guaranteed left on his contract (while the final year is a player option, it’s highly unlikely he will turn it down). Miami is not going to trade for another older player who ties up their books for multiple years.
• The Warriors are known to be hunting for a star to put next to Stephen Curry, but the only way to make this trade work is a four-or-five-for-one trade that likely involves Detroit as a third team. It can work if the Warriors send out Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Kyle Anderson, although there would likely be picks moved and Detroit in the mix. This trade would drop the Warriors to 11 players on the roster and they would need to pick up some players at the minimum to meet minimum roster requirements.
If the Heat are particularly high on Kuminga and Moody, they might be open to some form of this construction. However, Kuminga will be a restricted free agent who has to be re-signed this summer and is reportedly seeking a four-year contract worth $140 million. Does Miami want to make that bet? Or would the Heat rather play out the season—they are currently the No. 6 seed — and see what happens this summer with a sign-and-trade involving Butler?
• It goes this way with all the options. It’s not impossible for a Butler trade to come together before the Feb. 6 deadline, but there’s a reason that when executives gathered in Florida for the G-League showcase, they thought a Butler trade was not likely to happen.
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