Racing Insights: Expect a repeat winner at Pocono

Shane van Gisbergen flipped the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture last Sunday with his dominant win in Mexico City. However, don’t count on another first-time winner this weekend when the circuit shifts to Pocono Raceway on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

According to Racing Insights, the last 11 races in Long Pond, Pennsylvania have been won by drivers ranked sixth or better in the playoff standings, so let’s take a deeper look at who will be in the mix at the ‘Tricky Triangle.”

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The winningest Cup driver in Pocono’s history, Denny Hamlin, is set to return after missing the Cup Series’ inaugural event at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez following the birth of his son.

He’ll restart his consecutive starts streak when he takes the green flag Sunday and will be one of the favorites to do so in grand fashion. Since 2022 at Pocono, Hamlin ranks first in speed, long runs and restarts. He’s also finished inside the top 15 in every race at Pocono dating back to 2018, except for the 2022 race, where he and former Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch were disqualified after post-race inspection.

Still looking to add a second victory this season is William Byron. The two-time Daytona 500 winner holds a 67-point lead in the regular-season standings ahead of Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson. What’s going to make Byron a threat on Sunday is how the No. 24 driver has been able to earn and maintain track position all season long.

Byron has been the best of all Cup drivers this season in average start (9.3), average finish (10.4) and average running position (9.2). Pocono has been tricky for Byron, though, as he has just one top-10 finish in the last four races at the 2.5-mile track.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Still looking for his first win of 2025, the No. 45 23XI Racing driver could be in a spot to turn his season around. He’s finished runner-up in two of the last three Pocono races and has been top 10 in the last four.

CHASE ELLIOTT: The pride of Dawsonville, Georgia will be doing double duty this weekend as he dips into Xfinity Series action on Saturday. Elliott was awarded the Pocono win in 2022 after the previously mentioned DQs of Hamlin and Busch that year and owns consecutive top 10s in the last three races at the “Tricky Triangle.”

ERIK JONES: Legacy Motor Club has picked up the pace as summer kicks off this weekend, and the No. 43 Toyota driver has an underrated history at Pocono. Jones has finished top 10 in eight of his 13 Pocono starts, and his five top fives in Long Pond are tied for his most at any other track on the calendar (Darlington).

BUBBA WALLACE: Coming off top 10s at Nashville and Michigan, followed up by a gritty 12th-place result in Mexico, the No. 23 23XI team is heading in the right direction ahead of Pocono. Wallace has been impressively consistent at the 2.5-mile circuit with no finish worse than 11th in the last four events in Long Pond.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE GREAT AMERICAN GETAWAY 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

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