Projecting Phillies’ lineups and X-factors in 2025

Projecting Phillies’ lineups and X-factors in 2025 originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

With the dust mostly — perhaps entirely — settled for the Phillies this offseason and the new year here, the construction of their 2025 lineup can be projected more accurately.

The Phillies should have one of baseball’s most balanced and dangerous lineups against right-handed pitchers but could struggle against lefties without internal improvement.

Let’s get into it all.

Lineup against righties 

Here is a best guess at the Phillies’ regular lineup against right-handed starting pitchers:

1. DH Kyle Schwarber (L)

2. SS Trea Turner (R)

3. 1B Bryce Harper (L)

4. 3B Alec Bohm (R)

5. LF Max Kepler (L)

6. RF Nick Castellanos (R)

7. 2B Bryson Stott (L)

8. C J.T. Realmuto (R)

9. CF Brandon Marsh (L)

Bench: Edmundo Sosa, Weston Wilson, Johan Rojas, Garrett Stubbs

The ability to alternate left- and right-handed bats all the way through is appealing. Bohm could also slide down a spot in favor of Kepler.

There would be no safe section of the lineup on many nights for a right-handed opponent, with Castellanos-Stott-Realmuto perhaps representing the softest third.

The offensive production of Castellanos and Realmuto against same-handed pitching will be crucial again in 2025. Last season, Castellanos hit .249 with a .711 OPS vs. righties and Realmuto hit .258 with a .738 OPS. They were much better against lefties — .269/.830 for Castellanos and .286/.782 for Realmuto.

Stott, who dealt with a sore elbow, hit just .251 against righties in 2024 compared to .280 the year prior. Marsh still did damage, but his batting average vs. RHP dropped from .292 to .262. They both need to be better, period, in 2025, but let’s not forget that in the very recent past, both were actual weapons against opposite-handed pitching.

Lineup vs lefties

Here is the projection when facing a left-handed starter:

1. DH Schwarber (L)

2. SS Turner (R)

3. 1B Harper (L)

4. 3B Bohm (R)

5. RF Castellanos (R)

6. C Realmuto (R)

7. 2B Sosa (R) or Stott (L)

8. LF Kepler (L) or Wilson (R)

9. CF Rojas (R)

Bench: Stott, Marsh, Wilson, Stubbs

Things are trickier against a lefty, for sure, though keep in mind the 2024 Phillies ranked second in the majors against lefties in batting average (.270), second in on-base percentage (.342) and third in OPS (.783). A lot of that had to do with Harper and Schwarber negating any platoon advantage teams thought they had.

The Phillies don’t seem keen on the idea of platooning at three different positions — second base, left field and center field — in 2025. But they will need Stott, Kepler and Marsh to handle lefties at least decently well to prevent the temptation of choosing Sosa over Stott, Wilson over Kepler and Rojas over Marsh.

Not all lefties are equal, of course. There is a difference between facing someone with funk and deception like Sean Manaea or Chris Sale as opposed to a lefty with a more common arm slot and repertoire. Last season, Rob Thomson started Stott in two of four matchups against LHP Mackenzie Gore and Marsh once, for example. Both started against Patrick Corbin. Both started against Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber, who the Phillies might face the first week of the season.

A team might draw a tough lefty starting pitcher 20 times all year. The more frequent issue will be facing a left-handed opener. Teams already attacked the Phillies with lefty openers more than usual to combat the Schwarber-Harper top third and that won’t change with their only offensive addition being Kepler.

The Phils sound intent on giving Kepler the opportunity to play every day if he hits lefties, but he’ll have to prove he can. If not, Wilson — or the right-handed bench bat in that role — would gain more opportunity. Kepler is a career .221 hitter vs. lefties, though he’s been better the last three seasons at .254.

Their most important bat vs. LHP could end up being the player mentioned the most in Phillies trade rumors this fall: Bohm. He’s a career .307 hitter with an .870 OPS against lefties and that’s exactly the sort of protection a team would want in the cleanup spot after Harper, whose on-base percentage vs. same-handed pitching the last two seasons is over .380.

Lefty exodus

Perhaps importantly, two of three best NL East lefties the Phillies faced last season are no longer a divisional threat. Jesus Luzardo is theirs and Max Fried is a Yankee. The Braves’ only left-handed starter is Sale. Is he going to make 29 starts again?

The Mets still have Manaea and David Peterson. However, the only lefty in their bullpen currently is Danny Young. That didn’t matter in the 2024 NLDS and there are still six more weeks of offseason to go, but it could be a factor at some point.

The Phillies have a soft launch to the regular season this year with series against the Nationals and Rockies, then could face Blake Snell and Sale in the next two against the Dodgers and Braves. It’s all still far away — six weeks until spring training, three months until games that count — but fun to think about on a cold January afternoon.