Projecting Florida’s final record in 2025: Will Gators keep up momentum under Billy Napier post-Texas win?

Florida football’s a bit maddening under Billy Napier. The Gators stumbled into their open date last month with three straight disheartening losses before heroics against Texas over the weekend knocked the Longhorns out of the top 25. Heading into Saturday’s battle at unbeaten and fifth-ranked Texas A&M, there’s newfound belief Florida can turn things around this season under Napier if the Gators team that got after Arch Manning continues to show.

How will a team with widespread offensive deficiencies prior to their last showing perhaps salvage what appeared to be a sinking ship mere weeks ago? That’s a good question — one we’ll try and project over the Gators’ final seven games of the regular season that will determine Napier’s fate and future as coach.

at Texas A&M 

Projected result: Loss (2-4, 1-2 SEC)

With everything touch-and-go for Napier since a stunning Week 2 home loss against South Florida kicked off what was shaping up to be a derailed season before the SEC-opening victory, this weekend’s test is a tall order of very different proportions. For starters, the Aggies are unbeaten with a couple quality wins under their belt and will have 100,000 strong behind them. And Napier? He’s 0-9 against ranked teams on the road at Florida.

Projected result: Win (3-4, 2-2 SEC)

Jeff Lebby’s 4-0 start to his second season with the Bulldogs has been subdued a bit with consecutive losses to start the SEC portion of the slate, a letdown against Tennessee followed by Saturday’s lackluster performance at Texas A&M. If this game was being played in Starkville, Mississippi State might be the betting favorite. However, the Bulldogs’ 2010 win in Gainesville was only their second on the road against the Gators since 1965 and this defensive scheme should give Mississippi State with protection.

Projected result: Loss (3-5, 2-3 SEC)

Crazy things could happen in Jacksonville, but Kirby Smart hasn’t lost to Napier yet and he’s won the last four games against the Gators by an average of 21.5 points per game. This could be the final data point in Napier’s tenure needed for a regime change if this Georgia team hangs a crooked number on the Gators. Statistically speaking, this might be the Bulldogs’ worst defense under Smart from a havoc standpoint and ranks next-to-last in the SEC in sacks, tackles for losses and turnover margin.

Projected result: Win (4-5, 3-3 SEC)

There’s a good chance the Wildcats go winless in the SEC this season, so losing at Kentucky for a third consecutive time would be a fireable offense for a coaching staff on its last legs should Florida’s bowl hopes diminish down the stretch. The Gators snap the streak in Lexington with a defense-dominated victory to set up a clash at Ole Miss the following weekend.

at Ole Miss

Projected result: Loss (4-6, 3-4 SEC)

The eye-opening loss Lane Kiffin usually suffers every season to an unranked team hasn’t come yet for the unbeaten Rebels, but this will have danger written all over it in November. Good news for Ole Miss is that Florida will get its full attention since an open date precedes the finale at Mississippi State after this one. Throw in the fact the Gators won this matchup last season and ended the Rebels’ shot at a playoff appearance.

Tennessee

Projected result: Win (5-6, 4-4 SEC)

Florida’s second win this season over a ranked opponent may come in the home finale against the Vols. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium’s mystique always gives Tennessee problems. The Vols haven’t won in Gainesville since 2003, a span of 10 consecutive losses with many of which being failures-to-show on Tennessee’s part. One of five SEC teams in our updated playoff projection in Week 7, the Vols would likely be on the outside looking in with a loss here unless they pile up wins over top 25 competition over the season’s second half.

Projected result: Loss (5-7)

With a chance to get to bowl eligibility in the Swamp against the Seminoles, the Gators fail in their quest against an opponent who could still be in the playoff conversation if they run the table. Unless you’re buying stock in Clemson, the Gators are Florida State’s toughest opponent over the final seven games of the season and could be a signature nonconference opportunity for Mike Norvell before the selection committee’s penultimate vote.