For the first time in program history, Penn State is moving on in the College Football Playoff. The (6) Nittany Lions punched their ticket to a showdown against (3) Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal on Dec. 31 with a dominant 38-10 win against (11) SMU on Saturday.
Penn State controlled the game from the opening kickoff thanks to a staunch effort from its defense. The Nittany Lions stoned SMU on fourth-and-1 at Penn State’s 19-yard line to end SMU’s first offensive drive. Then, on SMU’s next possession, Penn State linebacker Dominic DeLuca returned an interception 23 yards for the first touchdown of the game.
That was the first of two first-half interceptions for DeLuca, and the first of two first-half pick sixes for Penn State’s defense. The Nittany Lions scored 21 points over the first two quarters off of turnovers. Their fourth touchdown came after stuffing SMU on another fourth down conversion attempt.
After taking a 28-0 lead into the half, Penn State’s win was elementary from there. The Nittany Lions now turn their attention to their attention to a strong Boise State team.
This will be the first meeting between the two storied programs. Boise State and Penn State both rank top-10 in all-time win percentage, and the resurgent Broncos — who used to be a New Year’s Six mainstay — did enough as Mountain West champion to earn a first-round bye under first-year coach Spencer Danielson.
What to know about Boise State
Boise State is riding an 11-game winning streak into the College Football Playoff, including a 21-7 triumph over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game. The Broncos’ only loss this season? By three points on the road against top-seeded Oregon.
It’s no secret how Boise State got to 12-1 — they’ve spent the year riding Doak Walker Award-winning running back Ashton Jeanty. No matter how teams prepare for the onslaught by loading the box, it doesn’t matter; Jeanty has spent all season obliterating defenses en route to Heisman Trophy finalist status.
Jeanty has 1,882 yards after contact, which is more than any other FBS player has total yards rushing. He’s averaging 4.8 yards after contact per rush and has a career forced missed tackle rate of 37.1%. It’s almost impossible to bring him down on first contact, and he has the speed to burn past defenders once he hits space.
It hasn’t all been Jeanty, though. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been one of the most efficient signal callers in the nation this year with a 62% completion rate and 22 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Jeanty makes his job easier, but he’s made the most of his opportunities.
Though inconsistent, Boise State’s defense has also held its own multiple times this year. The Broncos haven’t allowed more than 24 points in a single game since Oct. 5, and they’ve held each of their last three opponents under 20 points.
What to know about Penn State
Big Game James (Franklin) finally lived up to the moniker Saturday as his Penn State team cruised to its first-ever College Football Playoff win, thrashing a woefully overmatched SMU team in the process. It was the Nittany Lions’ first real signature win of the season (they did beat a solid Illinois squad 21-7), though they have come close to breaking through this year.
Their two losses came by a combined 15 points against a pair of top-10 teams in Ohio State and Oregon, the latter of which came in the Big Ten Championship Game. Like Boise State, Penn State pushed the Ducks to the brink with a 13-point fourth quarter but ultimately fell short when quarterback Drew Allar threw an interception on what could have been a game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter.
In spite of that, and his overall lackluster performance against the Mustangs, Allar has played some of the best football of his career this season under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Entering Saturday’s game, he completed 69.1% of his passes — up almost 10% from 2023 — for 2,894 yards (another career high) and 21 touchdowns. He’s also averaging 8.9 yards per attempt compared to 6.8 in 2023.
It helps when he has a safety valve like Tyler Warren, the Mackey Award winner who also finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting as one of the sport’s most dynamic players. The Nittany Lions move him all over the field — he’s lined up at tight end, wide receiver, slot receiver, fullback, running back, quarterback and offensive line — and he’s delivered with 1,095 yards and six touchdowns receiving, four touchdowns rushing and one touchdown passing.
As evidenced by Penn State’s first-round performance, the defense is strong as ever. Through its first 13 games, it ranked top-10 nationally in both total defense (282.1 yards per game; sixth in FBS) and scoring defense (16.4 points per game; eighth).
Fiesta Bowl odds, prediction
It’s understandable that the immediate line would be heavily skewed toward Penn State given what the Nittany Lions did Saturday afternoon. But, make no mistake, Boise State is a very good football team. The Broncos came a couple of plays away from upsetting Oregon. Jeanty is going to produce no matter what, and the Broncos are a fairly complete team outside of their star running back. Not ready to pick Boise State straight up, but this game is going to be much closer than the initial line indicates. Pick: Boise State +11.5
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