Patriots-Chargers preview: Ja’Lynn Polk trending in wrong direction? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO — What are the stakes? The Patriots have very little to play for when it comes to the standings. If anything, there should be some level of attempting to at the very least match last year’s atrocious four-win record.
Yet, the stakes exist. They exist for a coaching staff with a couple of coordinators whose seats should be warm with the offseason approaching. They exist for a roster full of players whose 2025 whereabouts are uncertain, needing to put out as much competent tape as possible as they hope to earn jobs for next season.
And they exist for Patriots decision-makers, who need to use the football left to get a real gauge on what they have in their young players as they look to build their team for the future.
Layden Robinson has acquitted himself relatively well in the last two games while allowing just one pressure. He’s one of just eight guards in the NFL with at least 75 total snaps in Weeks 16 and 17 who has allowed less than two pressures in that span. Perhaps he’s on track to take on the team’s starting left guard role next season.
Cole Strange is looking like he’ll start at center in Week 17, giving him a chance to show what he can do after missing most of the season following a knee injury that ended his 2023 campaign prematurely.
At receiver, the outlook is less positive. It’s my understanding that Ja’Lynn Polk was discussed by the Patriots as a healthy scratch prior to the Bills game, and he ended up playing only three snaps in that game. Javon Baker appears to have worked his way beyond Polk on the depth chart, but not in a significant way, playing eight snaps in Buffalo.
On Polk in particular, one would assume the team hoped coming off its bye week in Week 14 that their second-round pick would be able to settle in and make a push toward salvaging the back end of his first year as a pro. Instead, he appears to be trending in the wrong direction. And New England’s opponent Sunday is just another reminder as to what might’ve been had the team approached the second round differently back in the spring.
Sitting at pick No. 34 overall, the Patriots watched Florida State wideout Keon Coleman go to the Bills at No. 33. Then, bypassing an opportunity to draft Georgia wideout Ladd McConkey, Eliot Wolf traded down to pick No. 37, sending a fifth-round pick and receiving a fourth-rounder from the Chargers in the process.
The Chargers grabbed McConkey and have reaped the rewards, as he’s racked up 69 catches for 960 yards and five touchdowns. In 14 games, Polk has 12 catches for 87 yards and two scores. Baker, whom the Patriots selected with the fourth-rounder acquired in the deal, hasn’t made a reception.
The evaluation continues on Sunday. Here are the matchups to watch in the game…
Matchup that’ll determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. Derwin James
The Chargers have a fast-flowing defense led by their Swiss Army knife safety Derwin James. If the Patriots are going to continue to attack through the air with their short passing game, they may have trouble finding room to operate Sunday.
Per Next Gen Stats, Drake Maye is the one of the best short passers in football. On passes that travel less than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, he has the sixth-best yards-per-attempt figure (6.6) and the sixth-best success rate (56.1 percent). However, the Chargers only allow 5.4 yards per attempt on those types of throws, which is the third-best among NFL defenses this season.
If New England can’t move the chains with shorter throws because James and Co. suffocate them, this one could be over quickly. Unless…
Matchup that’ll surprise you
Chargers defense versus Alex Van Pelt
…The Chargers continue to play the way they’ve played the last two weeks on the defensive side of the ball. The Buccaneers put up 40 points against them two weeks ago. Last week, Jim Harbaugh’s club had its issues at times keeping Bo Nix and the Broncos in check.
The advanced numbers from those two games aren’t kind to Los Angeles. They’re 28th in EPA per play allowed and 29th in EPA per dropback allowed.
If that continues at Gillette Stadium, perhaps offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt can draw up some plays for Maye to run his touchdown pass streak to eight games — the longest streak for any rookie since Justin Herbert threw for touchdowns in 10 straight games back in 2020.
Matchup that’ll take years off your life
Justin Herbert vs. Patriots pass rushers
Keion White made headlines late this week when he seemed to voice some displeasure with what he’s been asked to do as an outside linebacker. He’s been asked to be sound against the run. His pass-rush numbers — and those of the entire team — have been down. Apparently, that’s led to some displeasure for the second-year defender.
If he can’t get after the quarterback again this week, it could be a long day for his team, because Herbert is dynamite when not pressured. He’s seventh in the league in yards per attempt when not pressured (8.3), eighth in rating (110.5), and he hasn’t thrown a pick when kept clean.
Unfortunately for the Patriots, they see a lot of passing reps from opposing quarterbacks who aren’t pressured. They’re fourth-worst in the NFL in quarterback pressure rate (29.7 percent).
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