Patriots-Cardinals preview: Can Mayo’s consistent approach yield better results? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Patriots are going to welcome that which is new and different in the final four weeks of the season. New players contributing. Evolving levels of competency in critical situations. Different results.
But for head coach Jerod Mayo, he’s not looking to alter his approach with how he handles his interactions with players. And they’re not looking for him to.
“Very consistent in his messaging in everything that he says, from Week 1 to where we are now,” Hunter Henry said of Mayo this week. “Just trying to improve. Trying to stack wins. Trying to find ways to win and learn from losses. Those are all learning opportunities. I think his messaging has been very consistent.”
“Same person every day,” Deatrich Wise said of Mayo. “Always bringing the same energy. Upbeat. Very consistent. Very positive.“
Fresh off a bye week, sitting at 3-10 in the middle of a three-game losing streak, Mayo may have to pull a few different levers when it comes to the team’s preparation or his own in-game decision-making in order to generate better outcomes. But this week, he explained his reasoning for why he “absolutely” prefers consistency when it comes to how he addresses his players.
“As a leader, I think the one thing they want is consistency, and hopefully that permeates throughout the organization,” Mayo said. “As you continue to try to build on a culture, I think the attitude of not getting too high and too low is a good mark of a leader. I would also say that it’s a good thing that our quarterback is pretty much the same way, and hopefully that continues to permeate throughout the rest of the group…
“We talk about it every Wednesday, it’s changing the page no matter what happens. If you ride that roller coaster of emotion, whether it’s through reading articles, social media, not playing as much or as well as you would like to play, if you ride that roller coaster, it turns into a toxic environment. We try to keep that out of here.”
There is no greater disinfectant than winning, though. While Mayo remains steady in the way he communicates with his players, he has to hope his team sees change on the scoreboard as early this weekend in Phoenix.
Here are the matchups to keep an eye on when the Patriots take on the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
DeMarcus Covington vs. Kyler Murray
Covington, along with Mayo, has received his share of criticism in recent weeks from media and fans alike as the Patriots defense has scuffled. There have been bouts of bad communication that have led to big plays. Fundamentals have at times been lacking. And play-calling in key spots has come into question.
The Patriots are now 21st in the NFL in points allowed per game (23.6), 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4) and 27th in quarterback rating allowed (99.3). They also rank 25th in sacks (27).
No time like the present to get things turned around, but they’re tasked with doing so against a dynamic athlete at the quarterback position in Kyler Murray.
While the Patriots will have to be disciplined in their rush lanes so as not to allow Murray lanes to run wild, Covington and Mayo will also want to find times to blitz. They’ve been burned at times when sending extra rushers, but Murray is averaging a career-low 6.2 yards per attempt this season when blitzed, per NextGen Stats.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots offensive line vs. Cardinals defensive line
The Patriots have a difficult decision to make along the offensive line. Cole Strange is ready to go. He just might be the future at center in New England — that’s where he’s been working since he returned to the practice field — but incumbent starter Ben Brown represents continuity at the position for both his teammates along the line and rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
Should the Patriots risk whatever hiccups may come on the quarterback-center exchange and play Strange to give him some runway going into 2025? Or should they stick what has seemed to work for Maye, who is coming off his best game of the season in Week 13, according to offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt?
Either way, this matchup is one the beleaguered Patriots offensive line should be able to handle at times. The Cardinals are owners of the eighth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, and they’re a middle-of-the-pack run-stuffing front (4.5 yards allowed per carry).
The Patriots have been by many metrics the worst line in football this year. They’re in possession of the NFL’s worst pass-block win rate (51 percent), according to ESPN, and they have generated a league low 0.4 yards before contact for their running backs on rushing attempts.
But Arizona’s front doesn’t pose the same type of challenge they’ve faced against the Rams, Dolphins and Colts in their last three games.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Cardinals tight ends vs. Patriots safeties/linebackers
The Patriots will see some similarities between Arizona’s offense and their own Sunday. Cardinals offensive coordinator, Wellesley High grad Drew Petzing, worked as the Browns tight ends and quarterbacks coach under Van Pelt from 2020 to 2022. One element both play-callers have leaned on this season? Multi-tight end sets.
Both like to turn to two-tight end packages, but Petzing will take it a step further and get a third tight end on the field more than most.
No team has used more three tight end groupings this season in the passing game than the Cardinals. They’ve generated more EPA than any other team in football when passing out of those packages, and their rate of passing plays that result in positive EPA (62.2) is best among teams with at least 20 snaps with three tight ends on the field. They can run out of those formations, too, gaining more yards (402) than any team with those heavy personnel looks.
The challenge for the Patriots will be keeping track of their assignments while two (or all three) of Trey McBride, Tip Reiman and Elijah Higgins are on the field simultaneously.
McBride is far and away the best receiver of the group, leading the team with 80 catches and 851 yards. But when the Patriots see multiple tight ends in the Cardinals huddle, they’ll have multiple problems on their hands.
They’ll have to keep enough size on the field to compete against Reiman’s blocking and hard-charging back James Conner in the running game. They’ll also need to keep enough athleticism on the field to check McBride — the Patriots allow a quarterback rating of 101.0 this year when tight ends are targeted — and keep Murray’s legs under wraps.
Not easy. And for a defense that has struggled to communicate effectively at the safety level at times this season, going against an offense that can leverage its tight ends to change looks from one snap to the next? Their hands will be full on that side of the ball.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Patriots 24
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