Padres, Cubs both looking like contenders in the National League: 5 takeaways from their series in San Diego

Two weeks ago, a series that looked to be a clash of National League heavyweights turned out to be a lopsided affair, as the Dodgers swept the Braves to continue the dream start to their season and extend a miserable beginning for Atlanta.

This week, another marquee National League matchup arrived, with the Chicago Cubs visiting the red-hot San Diego Padres, and this time, the games lived up to the hype, offering an early litmus test for two contenders who already appear laser-focused on reaching October, even here in mid-April.

Advertisement

Here are five takeaways from the three-game set at Petco Park, which the Padres won 2-1, plus what to watch for both clubs moving forward.

Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t striking out anymore

Ever since Fernando Tatis Jr. missed the entirety of the 2022 season because of an injury related to a motorcycle accident followed by an 80-game PED suspension, we’ve been wondering if and when we’d see him return to the MVP-caliber superstar he once appeared to be blossoming into. Well, so far in 2025, it might be happening: Through Wednesday, Tatis ranks in the top three in the National League in homers (6), stolen bases (6), batting average (.348), wRC+ (193) and fWAR (1.4). He homered twice in the series opener and drove in two runs in Wednesday’s 4-2 victory, including drawing a bases-loaded walk to conclude a 10-pitch battle with Cubs reliever Luke Little.

Advertisement

Tatis also didn’t strike out once across the three games against the Cubs, highlighting an intriguing element of his early success: He has cut down on the punchouts significantly. It’s not like Tatis was ever whiffing at Joey Gallo levels, but he had a 25% career strikeout rate entering 2025. So far this season, he has struck out in just 11.3% of plate appearances, and he’s making more contact than ever.

If his zero-strikeout series against the Cubs doesn’t wow you, consider this: Tatis’ streak of seven games without a strikeout earlier this season was the longest such streak of his career. This is reminiscent of Ronald Acuña Jr.’s stunning gains in plate discipline during his historic 2023, when he too entered the year with a 25% strikeout rate and then slashed it to 11% en route to an MVP award. Might a similar season be in store for Tatis? It sure seems to be trending that way.

The Cubs are going to rake with or without Matt Shaw

There were high expectations for top prospect Matt Shaw to make an immediate impact for the Cubs after he made the team out of spring training, but his rookie campaign got off to a rocky start, and he was optioned to Triple-A on Monday. It wasn’t an entirely shocking decision considering the degree to which he was struggling: Shaw was drawing walks and making the occasional standout defensive play at third base, but he was batting .172 with minimal power, and his underlying batted-ball data did not suggest he was getting particularly unlucky. He simply seemed overmatched.

Advertisement

In discussing the move, manager Craig Counsell reiterated the team’s long-term belief in Shaw, and we’ll see him again at some point later this summer. But if we’ve learned anything from the first few weeks, it’s that this team is going to hit whether Shaw is starring in the thick of an NL Rookie of the Year race or taking his time resetting in Triple-A. Kyle Tucker has fundamentally transformed this lineup in every way the Cubs could have hoped and has been the driving force for an offense that ranks second in runs per game (5.90), fourth in home runs (27), first in steals (29) and fifth in wRC+ (121). Although Chicago was outscored in the series 15-8, the Cubs outhit the Padres 27-23 and put together a bunch of good at-bats against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

Beyond Tucker, Michael Busch appears to be taking another step forward, Seiya Suzuki is adjusting smoothly to his every-day DH duties, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is finding his stride at the plate. Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson really haven’t even gotten going yet, which suggests an even higher ceiling for this group once those two start to heat up. If Shaw can find his footing in the big leagues later this summer and reestablish himself at the hot corner, this will certainly be one of the more dangerous lineups in the National League — one no opponent will want to deal with come October.

The mercurial Cubs bullpen is a concern

Cubs relievers rank 27th in ERA, 28th in WHIP and 22nd in fWAR through three weeks of play, a concerning reality for a club that prioritized upgrading the bullpen in the offseason. But it’s also worth noting the beleaguered unit stepped up big time in two of their victories over the past week: on Sunday, when Colin Rea plus six relievers held the Dodgers to two runs to claim the series, and on Tuesday, when five bullpen arms were nearly flawless in relief of Shota Imanaga to secure a 10th-inning victory in San Diego.

Advertisement

Unfortunately, sandwiching Tuesday’s standout showing were a total meltdown from Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan on Monday behind Jameson Taillon and a messy effort from Little on Wednesday, in which he walked four batters in his season debut. This variance was also on display when the Padres visited Chicago earlier this month, as the Cubs’ bullpen allowed just one run in the first two wins but then collectively coughed up a 7-3 lead to lose the series finale.

With Justin Steele needing season-ending elbow surgery and Javier Assad still working his way back from an oblique injury, the current rotation is not in position to do all the heavy lifting, and the bullpen needs to step up more consistently so as to not squander the leads often afforded by this top-end offense. There’s talent in place for this to happen — Porter Hodge is nasty, Ryan Pressly is a proven veteran, and don’t sleep on hard-throwers Julian Merryweather and Daniel Palencia — but Counsell needs to find the right mix to rely on sooner rather than later.

The Padres won’t go undefeated at home, but can they make history?

On Tuesday, Chicago handed San Diego its first loss at Petco Park in 2025, ending an 11-game home winning streak that was tied for the fourth longest to start a season in MLB history. The Padres promptly bounced back Wednesday to clinch the series and push their home record to a remarkable 12-1. For as electric as the atmosphere at Petco Park has been since San Diego ascended to contender status, the Padres actually played better on the road the past three seasons. But if the past few weeks are any indication, they might be bucking that trend in 2025 in spectacular fashion.

Advertisement

It’s certainly a stretch to expect San Diego to sustain its .923 home winning percentage for the entirety of the season — that would equate to a 75-6 home record — but this hot start to its home slate is worth keeping an eye on relative to the best home records in league history. Here are the best single-season home winning percentages since the schedule shifted to 162 games with expansion in 1961 and how those teams fared in October:

1. 1961 Yankees: 65-16 (.802%) — won World Series

2. 1975 Reds: 64-17 (.790%) — won World Series

3. 1998 Yankees: 62-19 (.765%) — won World Series

4. 1995 Indians: 54-18 (.750%) — lost World Series

6. 1969 Orioles: 60-21 (.741%) — lost World Series

7. 2019 Astros: 60-21 (.741%) — lost World Series

8. 1977 Phillies: 60-21 (.741%) — lost NLCS

9. 1970 Orioles: 59-22 (.728%) — won World Series

10. 2019 Dodgers: 59-22 (.728%) — lost NLDS

We’re a long way from finding out if this 2025 Padres squad will join this illustrious leaderboard. But if they can, history suggests that a deep playoff run would follow.

Both teams will continue to be tested in the coming weeks

Fresh off their six-game Southern California swing against the mighty Dodgers and Padres, an eight-game homestand awaits the Cubs at Wrigley Field, and the competition isn’t exactly easing up. First, another formidable NL West foe arrives in the D-backs, the team with which the Cubs split four games to open the post-Tokyo regular season and one with a lineup capable of matching Chicago’s high-powered offense. The Dodgers follow with a pair of games next week to complete their season series, and then the Phillies come to town for three next weekend before divisional play finally commences for the Cubbies, with trips to Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. If the Cubs are still atop the NL Central by the time the calendar flips to May, they will have surely earned it.

Advertisement

Meanwhile, the Padres have an interesting run of interleague showdowns on deck: three at Houston, three at Detroit and then back home for three against the Rays. Those are three tough customers, all of which boast stellar pitching staffs that should be ready to match up with San Diego’s stable of impact arms in each series. The Padres might look to be the more complete team than the Cubs at this stage, but keeping pace in the NL West is a notably more daunting task than doing so in the mediocre NL Central, so the road ahead might prove more challenging for San Diego.

If we’re lucky, this week won’t be the last time we see these two squads face off in 2025. After a season series in which both teams won three games and both teams scored 23 runs, a rematch on the October stage only seems right.