Optimism for Guardians Pitchers as Spring Training Opens

Yesterday, we looked at the most optimistic view of Guardians’ hitters – today, we turn our attention to Guardians’ pitchers.

Rotation:
Gavin Williams – Williams had a 3.06 ERA last year and for the last 60 innings, had a K-rate over 10 per 9 and a walk-rate around 3.6 per 9. If he can sustain that, the Guardians will have their next ace.

Tanner Bibee – Bibee had an xERA of 3.61 and ZiPS sees him as a 3.71 ERA pitcher. He also threw 182 innings, so there’s a durability factor here that is valuable in and of itself. I know Bibee was making a lot of changes to his pitch shapes, delivery and mechanics last season. Maybe an offseason of letting all that sink in allows him to return to his 2024 level of a 3.47 ERA, and he can get to 200 innings.

Joey Cantillo – Cantillo had a 3.21 ERA last year, striking out over 10 batters per 9. If he can slightly lower his walk-rate (around 4 per 9), he should be able to get to ZiPS’ projected 3.65 ERA and hopefully Steamer’s projection of around 150 innings. He can also prove me dead wrong that his better spot would be as a high leverage reliever, much to my joy.

Slade Cecconi – Another offseason with Cleveland should help Cecconi, who came over from a poor pitching development group in Arizona. OOPSY has the best projection for Cecconi at 154 innings and a 4.29 ERA. That’s a solid #4, but Cecconi has good Stuff+ numbers for his slider (99) and curve (101). If he can manage to leverage those pitches into strikeouts enough to go from 7.5 K’s per 9 to 8.5-9, he could take a leap. He has the mentality you want to see on the mound, and I also think he can easily transition to the bullpen and be very effective there if need be.

Parker Messick – A 2.72 ERA and the underlying metrics to back it up make it hard not to be excited about Messick. He also threw 130 innings last year and is just a bulldog in his entire presentation. Hard to believe he has more than halved his walk rate from the minors to the majors, but if that is at all real… this is exciting.

Logan Allen – 156 innings and a 4.25 ERA is a fourth starter, folks. Now, all of Allen’s metrics indicate he is more of a fifth starter and due for regression. But, he continues to work the edges of the zone and do just enough to avoid homers with guys on base. He’s a very valuable player to have around, but I do hope if the five arms listed above him are healthy that Allen will be held in reserve in Columbus (I’d be shocked if they run a six-man rotation due to the relentless devotion to eight bullpen arms the team has had for a long time).

Bullpen:
Peyton Pallette – I am on board with the Guardians working with a player who put up a 12/4 K/BB/9 in the minors and maximizing a pitcher they picked off the White Sox’ roster.

Connor Brogdon – Brogdon is 6’6” and languished on the Phillies and Angels, but has a fastball and a change that both measure as 107 in Stuff+. This is the kind of pitcher the Guardians almost always turn into a very effective middle reliever.

Tim Herrin – A bad season for Herrin last year but this is still the pitcher who put up a 2.86 FIP in 2024 in 65 innings. I think he bounces back.

Matt Festa – 54 innings and a 3.14 FIP. Festa is good, actually.

Erik Sabrowski – Personally, I think Sabrowski is closer to the 3.8 walk-rate he had in 2024 than the 6.8 walk-rate he had in 2025. He still had an incredibly low ERA both seasons. If he can be healthy, he is one of the nastiest lefty relievers in baseball.

Hunter Gaddis – A 2.30 ERA in 140 innings from 2024-2025. I don’t care what some underlying metrics present to doubt this guy. He’s a dude.

Shawn Armstrong – A 3.07 FIP in 74 innings, handling high leverage spots for the Rangers, Armstrong is a great veteran addition to the pen.

Cade Smith – A 1.75 FIP in almost 150 innings the last two years. Hand him the ball and I feel great. The only player in baseball who can make us not blink to lose the best closer in baseball to a gambling scandal.

Reserves:
Austin Peterson – A 3.21 ERA in 145 innings last season in the minors. Peterson profiles as a 5th starter but if the team can JUST squeeze a little more swing-and-miss from him, he could be a very nice major league arm.

Will Dion – I think Dion is probably a decent fifth starter, lowering his FIP by 2 runs last season in Columbus. Is that exciting? No. But, it can be very useful.

Doug Nikhazy – A terrible season for Nikhazy in 2025 should probably not cause us to erase his good 2024. I think there’s potential for a decent reliever or fifth starter left in here with his 9 K’s per 9 still hanging around… but time is running out.

Khal Stephen – I would not overlook the possibility of Stephen making a summer debut with the Guardians after his 2.60 FIP in 100 innings last year. An offseason of adjusting with Cleveland’s development group and we might have a Bieber replacement here with his 9.61/1.75 K/BB/9.

Colin Holderman – Holderman probably starts in Columbus because he has an option, but sign me up for what the Guardians can do with a pitcher from the Pirates who has these kind of Stuff+ numbers: 106 four-seamer, 112 sinker, 105 cutter, and 133 slider. I think this is probably someone we are very happy to see in the seventh innings by the end of the season.

Pedro Avila – Avila’s metrics looked solid in Japan last year and he had a 3.89 FIP in 82 innings for the Guardians in 2024.

Andrew Walters – This guy struck out like 15 batters per 9 in the minors and flashed that kind of ability in 2024. If he can come back from a tough injury, this is a very valuable bullpen arm.

Franco Aleman – His walks per 9 went up by 2 in 2025 and he was unlucky on batted balls. I’d guess he figures that out and shows something close to his 14 batters struckout per 9 in the bigs at some point in 2026.

Yorman Gomez – A 2.76 FIP in 121 innings in 2025. He’s probably too short (5’11”) to be a starting pitcher, but there is potential for an excellent reliever here.

Daniel Espino – No one has better stuff than Espino. IF he can be healthy for once in his life (please, sweet baseball gods), he is probably the only arm in our system who could be an equal fireman to Smith’s closer talent (or vice versa).

Steven Perez – A 3.15 FIP in 69 innings with a 9/2.6 K/BB/9, Perez looks like a viable matchup lefty at some point.

Codi Heuer – For his career, Heuer has a slider measuring at 107 and a changeup at 101. This is a useful organization arm who may get an opportunity to be a matchup lefty in the pen with Herrin ramping up in Columbus.

Ben Lively – Lively JUST signed back with Cleveland and probably won’t be able to help until late in the year after Tommy John, but he’s useful fifth starter depth.

So, what do you think? How do you feel about the Guardians’ pitching corps for 2025?

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